Rookie Quarterback Mousetrap Revisited

Last summer, I explored the effect that rookie quarterbacks have on their receivers. For this experiment, I looked at every rookie quarterback since 2012 with at least 12 starts, which gave me a sample of 23 players. 

What I found was that rookie quarterbacks have a difficult time supporting highly productive receivers. In fact, Andrew Luck was the only quarterback in the sample who supported a top-12 WR. Reggie Wayne was able to overcome a career-low in catch percentage, a below-average YPR, and just five receiving TDs to finish as a low-end WR1 due to massive volume. His 195 targets were second in the NFL that season. 

Looking at the rest of the sample, just 17% of the rookie quarterbacks supported a top-24 WR, and 47% supported a top-36 WR. You can find a more detailed explanation in the original article here, but there are, I believe, two reasons for this phenomenon–low volume and poor efficiency. 

During our sample seasons (2012-2019), there were 66 occurrences of a QB throwing for over 4,000 yards and 25 TDs in a season. None of them were rookies. This means that when you project production for weapons in a rookie-led offense, you have to start with a smaller pie. When you mix in the poor efficiency and conservative tendencies that often plague first-year signal-callers, you can begin to see why their WRs often let us down. 

What happened in 2020? 

In 2020, Justin Herbert became the first rookie QB to throw for over 4,000 yards and 25 TDs. He broke the NFL rookie record for TD passes and completions, in fact. As a result, Keenan Allen put together a more impressive season than any WR in our sample. Still, digging a little deeper, Allen did leave some meat on the bone. He finished as the WR7 in PPG despite seeing the second-most targets per game. He recorded a career-low of 9.9 yards per reception, as well. These minor inefficiencies can likely be chalked up to the growing pains of a rookie QB.

Before he tore his ACL in Week 11, Joe Burrow was also bucking the rookie QB trend. He was on pace to support two top-36 WRs–Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. However, we should recognize that Joe Burrow was averaging over 40 pass attempts per game, which was second among all QBs. With enough volume, any quarterback can provide useful fantasy options.  

Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa’s rookie performance was more in line with the rest of the sample. He absolutely throttled DeVante Parker’s production when he saw the field. Parker’s splits with and without Tua illustrate this point clearly. 

Application for 2021

What can all of this data tell us about the upcoming fantasy season? Well, there are five rookie QBs with a reasonable path to 12+ starts in 2021–Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones–so let’s take a closer look at their WRs.*

*All ADP data is courtesy of the FFPC 

The Jaguars have three fantasy-relevant WRs: DJ Chark (ADP WR32), Laviska Shenault (WR35), and Marvin Jones (WR57). Surprisingly, I don’t mind any of these players at their current price. Trevor Lawrence is one of the more polished QBs to enter the league since Andrew Luck. Furthermore, a bad defense could force Jacksonville to crank up the pass attempts just like Burrow and the Bengals last season. Marvin Jones is actually one of my favorite targets in BestBall drafts right now. He’s going so late that the quarterback situation hardly factors in. He’s a big-play threat and TD scorer who could realistically see 100+ targets this season. 

Like the Jaguars, none of the Jets’ WRs are highly drafted. Elijah Moore (WR49) is the most expensive of the bunch, but in that WR4/WR5 conversation, the QB isn’t a massive factor. The bigger problem with Moore is that he’s a rookie himself and likely competing with Jamison Crowder (WR71) for slot snaps, at least early in the season. I’d rather take Corey Davis (WR52) in that range or throw a dart at Denzel Mims (WR91) very late. Overall, I’m skeptical of the Jets’ passing attack, and I believe that it will be incredibly difficult to predict week-to-week.

Of these five teams with rookie QBs, the 49ers are the most difficult to break down. At this point, Jimmy Garoppolo looks like the Week 1 starter, and we don’t know exactly when Trey Lance will take over. When he does, the WRs will likely have to deal with a reduction in pass attempts in addition to the usual rookie QB struggles. I’m a little wary of Brandon Aiyuk (WR26) and Deebo Samuel (WR37) in traditional redraft leagues because there’s a good chance that Lance will be starting by the time fantasy playoffs roll around. In BestBall, where Week 1 matters just as much as Week 16, this is less of an issue. Still, their ADPs aren’t egregious; you don’t need to fade them entirely. Although George Kittle isn’t a WR, I’d like to point out here that I do prefer Darren Waller in a vacuum due to this rookie QB uncertainty. 

Allen Robinson (WR12) is by the far the most expensive WR with a rookie QB. If Robinson lives up to his ADP, he will be just the third WR since 2012 to finish as a WR1 in PPG with a rookie QB. He should have plenty of volume on his side, but I still prefer players like Terry McLaurin and Amari Cooper in that range. Darnell Mooney (WR53) is really the only other WR of consequence on the team. He’s absolutely a fine pick at his price, but keep in mind that his ceiling is capped in the high-end WR4 range unless something happens to Robinson. 

Lastly, we come to the New England Patriots. The offense may not be exciting with Cam Newton and Mac Jones at the helm, but I actually love Nelson Agholor (WR66) at his ADP. There really aren’t any other players in this range that could lead their respective teams in targets. The eventual takeover of Mac Jones shouldn’t move you off Agholor this late in the draft. 

Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.

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