This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without being biased by any outside opinions or flashy highlights. Once I collect the group of players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. This series is going to kick off with someone who is currently a sleeper but should be talked about at the top of this class.
Tyler Allgeier, RB BYU
When prospecting running backs I use these metrics and thresholds to determine which players I like and don’t like. I also look at weight and BMI to help get a sense of the size/build of the player. For weight I want my RB to be at 205 lbs. or higher; this is based on studying historical hit rates of RBs at various weights. It is not super important, but it is a data point and it is useful to know the weights of players. For BMI, I want my RB to be at 30.0 or more. I find this slightly more important than weight, and it is alright to be under, 30 is just optimal. Now that we know all of what we are searching for, let’s look at how Allgeier measures up.
Analytical Profile
As you can see in the above Tweet, Tyler hits every mark and smashes some of them as well. Scrimmage yards per game hitting means he was successful in both facets of the game, rushing and receiving, and that is the number one goal when looking for a good rookie RB. Great career YPC, people like to devalue this stat but in my research, it translates well to the NFL. If you can’t be efficient in college there is no way you’ll be efficient in the NFL.
Killer touchdown share: this shows his team trusted him on the goal-line but he also scored outside the red zone as well. It also shows he dominated the backfield and handled a workhorse role. We want RBs that catch passes and score TDs; Allgeier scores TDs. Look at that 10.9 reception share, he also was utilized well as a receiver.
Lastly, he hits the most important metric, yards per team play. So, Tyler Allgeier is efficient, he can score touchdowns, and he was utilized as a receiver. But, can he handle a workhorse role in the NFL? I think so, weighing in at 220 lbs. with a 30.7 BMI he is built to lead an NFL team’s RB room.
Conclusion
Tyler Allgeier is a guy that should be ranked in your top 5 RBs for this 2022 rookie class. If he gets drafted on day two of the NFL draft he could move as far up as three for me in this class. He has a great production profile, he has workhorse size, and he has shown skill as a receiver. Allgeier is currently my RB5 with room to improve. He will be a smash for me in the second round of Superflex rookie drafts.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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