Stonk Down
Quarterback
Zach Wilson
Week 1 was ugly for the rookie, but the stats are more encouraging than they appear. To be honest, it was more of a tale of two halves for the entire team. Wilson and the offense struggled to generate anything on the ground or through the air during the first half but put up respectable numbers along with two touchdowns to Corey Davis during the second. He still showed off his special arm talent but he needs help on the ground to take off pressure in the future. It’s only gonna get worse before it gets better, as he faces the Patriots who just kept a much better team like Miami in check. Bill Belichick is notorious for frustrating rookies, and the Patriots have a much better defense than the Panthers. Be Patient.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Trevor Lawrence
It’s garbage time production or bust for the entire Jaguars roster. Trevor Lawrence took his first regular-season loss since junior high. That isn’t hyperbole. It’s even worse that the loss comes from the worst roster in the NFL and every report is more negative than the last for this Urban Meyer-led organization. I said I was concerned last week, but I am panicking this week. Coaching decisions like playing an aging Carlos Hyde, who was only just good enough to start in his prime over second-year James Robinson. I have my doubts that Meyer gets a second season, so I don’t know when this team can actually turn around. I’m officially willing to see what I can get from a rebuilding team or another bullish GM.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Sell
Running Back
Trey Sermon
I have no clue what Kyle Shanahan is doing in San Francisco. Not saying it’s a bad thing, but Sermon wasn’t just benched. He was a healthy scratch with very little context. Elijah Mitchell (more on him later) got the start and made the most out of those opportunities despite the lack of training camp buzz and Sermon having the draft capital. Shanahan mentioned the missed practice due to injury and Mitchell outplaying him in camp, so it’s a coin flip as to who will be named the starter. Raheem Mostert has suffered a season-ending knee injury so there is plenty of opportunity in a system we know has success with even limited touches. The outside zone blocking the 49ers use has been replicated throughout the NFL due to its creative movement that freezes the defense and can make even the most average running back a homerun hitter. So every opportunity or touch in this backfield is valuable. The 49ers did trade up to get him, so we can assume that he has plenty of opportunities that will grant him standalone value even as only Elijah Mitchell’s backup.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Najee Harris
Did the Bills’ defense improve, or does the Steelers’ defense still suck? The answer is yes. Buffalo’s defensive line has definitely taken a step forward and was constantly in the backfield and creating havoc for both Ben Roethlisberger and Najee Harris. But I’m still very much concerned about the Steelers’ new offensive line. Pittsburgh’s front five failed to get any push on the defense to allow room for Harris to make a play. Another concerning factor is how the Steelers’ offense was mostly operating out of the shotgun to hide Roethlisberger’s immobility for dropbacks and boots. This makes it difficult for Harris to gain any momentum with such little depth between him and the offensive line. But (yes, there is a but) Najee Harris was on the field for every offensive snap. Volume and talent matter and Najee will have both. I trust the Steelers’ organization to put the rookie in a position to succeed and, as I mentioned, he has the talent to go no nuclear in the right situation. Najee has great matchups against Vegas and Cincinnati, so your cheap buy window is quickly closing.
Buy or sell the Dip: Buy
Wide Receiver
Elijah Moore
The Jets didn’t look great. I will say that it was a cliche “tale of two halves” scenario for the team as a whole. But Moore certainly looked like a rookie while recording two drops in the first half. I’m not overly concerned about drops. Just ask Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals what they think about drops fresh into a budding star’s career. The biggest obstacle for production is the offensive line that just lost starting tackle Mekhi Becton for six to eight weeks. Moore might be a matchup-dependent asset that’s clearly behind Corey Davis in the pecking order. The Jets have two more tough defenses to face in the Patriots and Denver and this might drive the price down even further for impatient owners. That’s your buy window before they face a terrible Titans defense.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Kadarius Toney
I’m willing to bet that this is the last time I need to report on Kararius Toney this season. Toney wasn’t even on the field during a shootout on Thursday Night Football after a dismal output the week before. I will say the Giants looked much better as a whole, but not because of Toney. He’s a developmental prospect with tons of athleticism, but very few ball skills or route-running chops. I’m selling even harder with hopes that another GM is bullish on him.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Sell
Josh Palmer
Josh Palmer beat the Chargers WR3 but is somehow still the team’s WR4. Jalen Guyton was the big winner of Tyron Johnson’s release as he saw 53 of the offensive snaps versus Palmer’s 14. I’m confident that this matters for this season only. The younger talent that has had a great offseason should receive more snaps as the season goes on. Worst case scenario, you’re stashing him until Mike Williams inevitably leaves in free agency and Palmer is free to take over the X-Receiver role in OC Joe Lombardi’s system.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Tight End
Kyle Pitts
Atlanta might be the team I’m disappointed in the most. It’s hard for me to believe that the Eagles’ defense is that good, but Atlanta wasn’t able to get anything going. This offense operates through the run and play-action, and both were ineffective. I find it hard to see major success for Pitts in his first season and impatient owners will be disappointed. Matt Ryan looks as old as he did last season, and it makes me question why they wouldn’t take Justin Fields instead of a luxury pick. Ryan needs a running game for this offense to even work and to take pressure off of the QB, which will lead to better passing efficiency. I’m concerned about every Falcons player until these things are fixed. Atlanta faces off against Tampa Bay which should drive the price down even more. This may be the time to buy for teams looking to rebuild.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy for rebuilds, Sell for contenders.
Kylen Granson
I don’t know why I expected more usage from Kylen Granson, seeing as I don’t trust rookie tight ends. But here I am stewing in my disappointment because I fell for camp hype and coach speak too early. Granson ran just two routes and was never on the field, even after reports of him being a featured piece of the offense. I don’t see it getting better next week against the Rams. But, the already cheap asking price makes me comfortable enough to still buy and stash him on my bench for the season and wait for a second-year leap.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Pat Freiermuth
It was not a good week for rookie tight ends. Shocker. Pat Freiermuth took his only target for 24 yards and split time with Eric Ebron during an ugly win against the Bills. Freiermuth is a touchdown dependant bench stash until further notice. But, I want to buy him wherever I can to start building for next season.
HODL (Hold on for Dear Life)
Quarterback
Trey Lance
It looks like Trey Lance can give us fantasy value even as a backup and HC Kyle Shanahan wasn’t fooling us like he was with the rest of the roster. Lance tossed a five-yard touchdown for his first touchdown, but couldn’t do much on the ground. Nothing has changed from last week besides the certainty that Kyle Shanahan isn’t afraid to use him even without starting him. Pretend you’re holding one whole Bitcoin before the boom.
Running Back
Michael Carter
The Jets’ offensive line still hasn’t gotten any better since you read about Wilson and Moore and those two aren’t sharing snaps in a committee. Michael Carter saw just four carries for six yards and a catch for 14. I’m still unsure if the Panthers’ defense just hasn’t improved that much because Carolina had the youngest defense last season. It only gets worse against the Patriots next week. I still believe in the prospect despite the dismal situation, so I’m still willing to wait till the second half of the season before I panic.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Both Rhamondre Stevenson and starter Damien Harris lost fumbles, so speculating which of these ball carriers will be in the doghouse seems pointless. However, Stevenson did spend most of the time on the bench after his turnover. I think Harris is the surefire RB1 in this backfield. But, if he causes a key turnover again or gets injured, Stevenson could end up a league winner. This offense looks poised to operate through the run and play-action behind one of the league’s better offensive lines and that can benefit any talented back.
Javonte Williams
It looks like a clean 50/50 split in the Broncos backfield for now. The boxscore looks misleading, seeing as Melvin Gordon gained most of his production from a 70-yard touchdown run, so don’t be too concerned about Gordon being “the guy.” The Giants have a legitimately talented run defense that caused problems for both running backs, and I expect better days ahead. Williams might be a decent flex option against the Jaguars this week and then the Jets after that.
Wide Receiver
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Terrace Marshall didn’t have as big of a debut as expected, but he is heavily involved in this offense. Marshall received six targets as the third leader in targets behind Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. It was even more encouraging to see the redzone usage. If he and Darnold start connecting on these targets he’ll boom. He played 79.2% of his snaps from the slot according to PPF. This makes me think of him as more of a lightning-fast tight end than a receiver and he should see most of the endzone targets. I’m still all in. He’s untradeable, and if I don’t have him I’m willing to deal as long as possible to get him.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
The term “well, somebody has to catch it” can apply to everybody but wide receivers. This offense is going to run entirely through the running backs and T.J. Hockenson. But I still think Amon-Ra St. Brown has a real path to fantasy relevance this season despite this. He received two catches on four targets for 23 yards, but one target was a misthrow by Jared Goff that should’ve been a touchdown. I feel good about the long-term value for St. Brown if he can develop and eventually be paired with a quarterback with talent.
Rondale Moore
Arizona is going to get Rondale Moore the ball whenever he’s on the field. He played an efficient game with a PFF score of 80.9 in his NFL debut and gained 68 yards on four targets. Moore looked explosive and adept at gaining separation at all three levels of the field, and Kyler Murray feels comfortable getting him the ball despite the limited snaps. Moore is a receiver to buy right now no matter if you’re ready to win or rebuild.
Stonk Up
Quarterback
Mac Jones
Mac Jones would’ve had a bigger game if the Patriots running backs could’ve held on to the ball. The offense as a whole looked efficient and Mac Jones looked like a veteran while operating it. We were worried about playmakers to help, but the tight ends and receivers functioned well within their offensive roles. 2020 Nelson Agholor doesn’t seem to be a fluke and is going to be an effective weapon to go with Jakobi Meyers at receiver. We need a bigger sample size to understand how Hunter Henry and Jonnu‘s roles differentiate. Expect Jones to feed all of these targets and put up decent numbers as a QB2, so you want to buy now in all formats.
Buy or Sell High: Buy
Running Back
Kenneth Gainwell
It was accurate to compare Kenneth Gainwell’s current role in Philadelphia to Nyheim Hines’ in Indianapolis. Gainwell is the definitive backup behind Miles Sanders and is set for 8-12 touches a game going forward. The Eagles looked much better than I thought they’d be in the offseason. Jalen Hurts might just be the real deal, but I’d like to see more from him and the offense once they face a team better than Atlanta. I am a little concerned that most of his production came in garbage time, and Sanders was used often in the passing game. I’m more interested in shopping him in a package deal to see what I’d get in return.
Buy or Sell High: Sell
Ty’Son Williams
I’m worried that even HC John Harbaugh will eventually end up tearing an ACL at this point. Ty’Son Williams has the J.K. Dobbins role for this offense while Latavius Murray has the vulture mantle once held by Gus Edwards. He looked young and explosive compared to Murray but made mistakes on little things like handoffs and protection that could keep him off the field. Regardless, his value is probably as high as it will get and I’d sell now before he tears a knee.
Buy or Sell High: Sell
Larry Rountree
Larry Rountree out-snapped Justin Jackson 28-11 and established himself as the clear backup to Austin Ekeler. OC Joe Lombardi brought over the Saints offense in his first year, so this role can have standalone value just like Latavius Murray and can be a flex plugin in a pinch. Rountree didn’t have much athleticism coming out of college, but the Chargers have liked him enough in camp that it may not matter. He needs to be rostered in every Dynasty League if he hasn’t been already and he could serve as a valuable depth piece that can be had for cheap.
Buy or Sell HIgh: Buy
Wide Receiver
Jaylen Waddle
I’ve been wrong about Jaylen Waddle. The rookie looks like the real deal and has the talent to be an all-around star and not just a gadget burner. His ankle didn’t seem to hinder him at all, and he was targeted on all three levels of the defense. The Patriots are a notoriously tough defense, and he was able to find separation by running a full route tree and wasn’t just used as a deep burner or clear-out decoy. My only concern going forward will be where he fits into the offense now that Will Fuller will be back. This may affect DeVante Parker more than Waddle.
Anthony Schwartz
It appears that I have an unnecessary bias against burner receivers because I missed on Schwartz as well. He is the clear WR3 behind Donovan Peoples-Jones and Jarvis Landry. I was mostly surprised to see how little Rashard Higgins was utilized in Odell Beckham Jr.’s absence. He’s a player that can score anytime he touches the ball, and the Browns want him to stretch the field on play-action passes with their stellar rushing attack. I think his ceiling is capped by the low volume, but somebody else in a league may not feel like that.
Buy or Sell High: Sell
Dyami Brown
The Washington Football team is confident enough in Dyami Brown to slot him as a full starter until Curtis Samuel returns from IR. Brown turned in better production during the Thursday Night Game against the Giants than he did in the opener and saw six targets that he converted into three receptions for 34 yards. Terry McLaurin is still the alpha, Adam Humphries has a key role out of the slot, and Logan Thomas deserves his share of targets, so Brown needs to capitalize on any and all opportunities. It’s hard for me to see him truly usurp Samuel unless the veteran doesn’t come back fully healthy, but it’s encouraging seeing the usage.
Buy or Sell High: Sell
To the Moon
Quarterback
Justin Fields
Nothing has changed for Justin Fields since last week. He got his own package to get a few plays just like Trey Lance, and completed two for two passing for 10 yards, and running it in for his first real touchdown. The current Bears starter still looks like a competent backup and not the guy you want starting when you’re an HC on the hot seat. Chicago’s rushing attack looks fantastic and will relieve pressure off the rookie once he takes the reins. I can’t wait to see more RPO play-calls with him and David Montgomery. The time for Fields to start is any day now, so buy now before he gets even more expensive than he is.
Buy or Sell High: You’re wasting time waiting on me to tell you. Go get him.
Running Back
Elijah Mitchell
Elijah Mitchell getting the start after Raheem Mostert’s injury was a doozie that shocked everybody. Sort of. Mitchell has real talent that fits the Shanahan Outside Zone scheme perfectly. The rookie decided to drop weight and lean out to add speed during the draft process and it seems to have worked. Mitchell was just as explosive as Mostert and made the best of his opportunity by turning in a 19/104/1 rushing stat line against the Lions. I’m unsure of what this means for Trey Sermon. HC Kyle Shanahan stated that both Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty outperformed Sermon in camp, but Sermon has also been nursing a camp injury. This will be the week we truly see if the Mitchell hype is real or just Shanahan making a point to his starters in an easy matchup. But, I’m willing to buy Mitchell when I can. Mitchell has special teams ability, speed, and underrated receiving chops that the 49ers can use. This makes him an active running back worth having. I want to send out a feeler trade, especially if I’m the Sermon owner.
Wide Receiver
DeVonta Smith
I’ll admit it again. I was wrong about Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. I loved DeVonta Smith the player but wasn’t sure how this team could get the most out of him if Hurts didn’t take a step forward with this new coaching staff I knew little about. I now feel much more confident. Smith has looked like the polished separator and route-runner we thought he was after his Heisman season all off-season and that hasn’t stopped heading into Week Two. He’s the clear WR1 for Jalen Hurts, who is a gamer that has improved his zip and ball placement and I’m buying into this offense. I’m going to aggressively pursue Smith if the Eagles struggle against a stout San Francisco defense because he has better matchups down the road in Dallas, Kansas City, and Carolina.
Ja’Marr Chase
Whether or not you ignored the off-season drops and held Ja’Marr Chase, or if you traded for him because somebody else didn’t, you were celebrating. Chase is going to be fine and looked like the explosive playmaker he was drafted to be. The Bengals did run the ball at a much higher rate than last season, but that can only mean better offensive efficiency. Chicago and Pittsburgh have top defenses and can cause trouble for this team, so stay patient because this is a guy who is truly special. Keep trying to buy him.
Which rookies are you watching? Let me know and find more content on Twitter @SportsJag.
