NFL Combine: “Does Size Matter?” Wide Receiver Edition

Every off-season the Combine comes and Twitter is ablaze with all of the size narratives. “If he’s short I’m not drafting him.” “If his BMI is too low I’m not drafting him.” “I don’t care what their size is, if they produce I like them.” “Size doesn’t matter!” “Size DOES matter!” What we do not see during this time is much real evidence with actual context. We are just given narratives or one-off examples of outliers. “Cooper Kupp ran a 4.65 and he just had the best WR season ever, 40 times don’t matter.” “DeVonta Smith has a BMI of 22.5 but he won the Heisman, I’m drafting him.” Today, my goal is not to fight for one side or the other. It is to look at the real numbers, with an unbiased eye and determine if these NFL combine metrics matter for fantasy football.

The NFL Combine

Each year the NFL Combine hosts about 40 of the top wide college receivers from around the country who have declared for this year’s NFL draft. They then have these players perform drills, various tests, as well as weigh them and measure their heights. The test and measurements I will be looking at are the 40-yard dash and a receiver’s height and weight. 

Does the 40-Yard Dash Matter?

In my search for answers to whether the 40-yard dash truly matters I have collected hit rate data for three different categories (data is pulled from WRs drafted since 2013). The first category is just the overall hit rate of a player who either ran slower than 4.6 seconds or ran a time of 4.6 seconds or faster. Then I divided the players up by draft capital. I looked at players who had fast and slow 40 times but were drafted on Day 3 and did the same for players drafted on Day 1 or 2. 

First, I need to define my hit tiers. My Elite tier is a player that at minimum had one season of 16+ PPR ppg in 10 or more games and an additional season of 13+ PPR ppg in 10 or more games, both of which need to occur within the player’s first three NFL seasons. For reference, 16 PPR ppg is typically the WR12 overall and 13 PPR ppg is typically the WR24 overall. Next, the Good tier is players that at minimum had either one 16+ PPR ppg season or at least two 13+ PPR ppg seasons within their first three years (both must be 10 or more games played). Lastly, the Soft tier is comprised of players who at minimum had either one season of 13+ PPR ppg or two seasons of 10+ PPR ppg. I use 10 for this tier because it is what most people expect from their end of flex type of replacement players. Also worth mentioning, the “OVR Hit” is just the overall hit rate of that section. So, all of the Elite, Good, and Soft hits get added up for the overall hit rate of the group. Now we will examine the chart.

If we look at the overall column of the chart, on the left, we do not see a large difference in hit rate between a slow time and a fast time. So far I am led to believe 40 times do not matter, but let’s keep looking. Next, we see the players drafted on Day 1 or 2 of the Draft in the middle column. You may first notice that the overall hit rate of players that had a slow 40 time is larger than that of the fast 40 time players. However, you must also consider the sample size. There have only been five players drafted on Day 1 or two of the draft that had a slow 40 time since 2013. That is not even one per year, it is a rare occurrence. Next, look at the Day 3 data. Since 2013 we have seen zero hits come from players drafted on Day 3 of the draft who also ran slowly at the combine. 

Overall this data tells me that a bad 40 time alone is not an indictment. It also tells me that if you have a slow 40 time, but you are still drafted high by an NFL time to not worry about it. The NFL didn’t care so why should we. Lastly, it told me to strictly avoid players that ran slowly at the combine who the NFL also did not feel was worth drafting high. So does 40-yard dash time matter? Not much, if a player is drafted high it does not matter. But, if a player is drafted low, and they are slow then you should avoid.

Does Height Matter?

For height, I employ the same process that we just went through for the 40-yard dash times. So, let us just dive right into the data.

In our overall height hit rate column, we something new. 19 players since 2013 have been drafted and shorter than 5’10” but only two have become hits. However, this is still a fairly small sample size and the NFL is rapidly changing. Guys from 2021 like Elijah Moore and Jaylen Waddle had already shown success in the NFL and are under 5’10” but in my database, you need to have played two seasons to be considered a hit or a miss. And there is also Rondale Moore at 5’7” who the jury is still out on. If these three players hit and the other short 2021 players turn into misses our data becomes five hits out of 21 players for a 23.8% rate. And then we see a negligible difference between tall and short. Let’s keep moving. In the Day 1 and 2 data, we do not have anything usable here. Only two players since 2013 have been “short” and drafted in this range. Except in 2021 we again see Jaylen Waddle and Elijah Moore who are well on their way to being hits, fall in this category. So the data here is inconclusive. Lastly, the Day 3 data. We can see draft capital does not make much of a difference in hit rate here. Even though Day 3 short guys have only provided one hit out of 17 players, your odds are still the same of finding a hit. Overall, this data tells me that height simply does not matter for fantasy football success in the NFL. 

Does BMI Matter?

Finally, what everyone has been waiting for, the hottest topic of them all. Does BMI matter for the fantasy success of NFL wide receivers? You know the drill with the data, let’s find out.

When we look at our overall BMI hit rate we can immediately see a sizeable difference in hit rates. Our thick players hit over three times more often than our thin players, and we only even have one thin hit since 2013. Now in the Day 1 and 2 data we see an even greater difference. I know it is only three players but 0% compared to 47% is astonishing. Time to add some context. We know DeVonta Smith is a thin guy, and he is on his way to becoming a hit in the NFL. But he does not make it a 25% hit rate.

There are other guys from 2021 who fall in this pool but are on their way to becoming NFL misses: Tutu Atwell, Dyami Brown, and Anthony Schwartz. If these guys all continue on their current trajectory that still only gives us one out of seven players, or a 14.3% hit rate which still pales in comparison to the 47%. Another factor here is that our one hit in the last eight years won the Heisman at receiver and had one of the best seasons in college football history. It makes sense that he can beat the odds and is going to become a hit. In the Day 3 data, we see the thin guys hitting at a larger rate due to the small sample size. Overall, this data tells me that BMI does matter, and we should be avoiding receivers that do not meet the 25 BMI threshold. Unless they have historic college production in the case of DeVonta Smith. But, in 99% of cases, I will be avoiding the low BMI players and I think you should too.

Conclusion

The NFL combine is a fun time of the year and it’s exciting to see all of these new rookies take the field together. However, we can not get swept up in the hype. We must remember what matters and what does not matter. And in my opinion, after researching the data. The 40-yard dash only matters if you are slow, and drafted low. Height does not matter. And BMI does matter, a low BMI is an indictment on any given wide receiver.

The 2022 Class Combine Metrics

As we mentioned, 40-yard dash time will only concern me if the red players get drafted low. The height does not concern me at all, that metric seems to be a non-factor. And the players that missed BMI will move many spots down my board. I will probably not own any of them.

Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions, you can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, #Rankings, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!

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