Rookie Analysis
Tamorrion Terry had 118 receptions for 2,221 yards in his three-year college career at FSU. Terry entered college on the older side as a 21-year-old redshirt freshman but made an immediate impact once he got on the field. He caught 35 receptions for 744 yards and eight touchdowns as a freshman but truly broke out as a sophomore catching 60 passes for 1,188 yards and nine touchdowns. Terry’s 2020 season was cut to just four games to a knee injury he underwent surgery for in October leading to him inevitably opting out. For that reason, we will focus on his 2019 season in teams of production. In 2019 he accounted for 32.20% of his team’s offensive production and 2.94 adjusted yards per team pass attempt. For context, Jerry Jeudy accounted for 2.98 adjusted yards per team pass attempt in 2019.
Gregory Rousseau is a part of the enormous list of players that hurt their draft stock by opting out. Ja’Marr Chase and Micah Parsons were the only two players whose opt-outs didn’t affect their draft capital. Unfortunately, our man Gregory Rousseau made a bad decision. Your author wrote about this back in September in the weekly seasonal “Draft Stock Watch” series. There is no arguing Rousseau’s superior athletic ability and speed around the edge. The DE out of Miami trailed only 2020 number two overall pick Chase Young in total sacks in the entire FBS in 2019.
Kylin Hill does a lot of things very well. He might now be elite in any one trait, but he doesn’t show many weaknesses on tape. His running style is aggressive and he finishes off runs with violence. He has a second gear that he can hit when he sees space. There isn’t a lot of tape on Hill in 2020, but from what I did see in the LSU game, he has a lot of potential as a runner.
At his Pro Day, Elijah Mitchell measured 5’10” and 201 lbs, giving him a BMI of 28.8. His best 40-yard dash time was 4.40-seconds which equates to a 107.3-Speed Score, 86th percentile. He also achieved a 127.8 burst score, 88th percentile, and an agility score of 11.14, 79th percentile. Mitchell is above average in every athletic testing category and these are very important when talking about RBs. Overall I am impressed with his athletic profile, he has good size and profiles to be an RB that can secure a great touch share in the NFL.
Jaelon Darden is one of your annual small-school stories where an incredible athlete, who was overlooked by large programs, emerges. Darden was a high school QB, so he possesses basic knowledge about reading coverages and finding openings in the defense. He played in all 14 games as a backup WR during his true freshman season compiling 281 yards and three TDs on 32 receptions, while also contributing as a punt and kick returner. While he still returned punts, Darden focused on offense as a sophomore, hauling in 48 receptions for 575 yards and four TDs.
Simi Fehoko had 62 receptions for 1,146 and nine touchdowns in his three-year college career at Stanford. Fehoko is another wide receiver on the older side entering the draft at 23 years old. Although Fehoko is listed as playing three years he was a reserve as a freshman and played just four games catching a single pass for six total yards. He broke out as a sophomore finishing 2019 with 24 catches for 566 yards and six touchdowns. Fehokofollowed up his breakout season with an underwhelming 2020 where he caught 37 passes for just 574 yards and three touchdowns. Most of his production came in two games, however, he did account for 35.7% of his team’s offensive production.
Kenneth Gainwell was a wildcat quarterback in high school and rushed for 4,730 yards on 501 attempts. He was recruited by Arkansas State, Idaho, Ole Miss, and Tulane. Ultimately, Gainwell decided to play for the Memphis Tigers. He started his career at Memphis with just a few touches but was eventually red-shirted as a freshman.
Brevin Jordan has been a consistent and big-time contributor in the Hurricanes’ offense the past three seasons. He started as a true freshman after entering Miami as the number one TE recruit in the nation. Jordan finished this past covid-19 adjusted season with his best numbers, compiling 38 receptions for 576 yards and seven TDs. He did miss three games with a shoulder injury.
Ian Book finished his four-year career with the second-most career passing yards in Notre Dame’s history (8,948). He also finished second in career passing touchdowns (72) and second in career QBR (147.0) amongst those who attempted 500 or more passes. Book also put up great rushing statistics in college as well. In 45 career games, he produced 1,517 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. The dual-threat quarterback can beat you both with his arm or with his legs, and in today’s game, being able to pass or run on any given down creates a major disadvantage for defenses.
Chuba Hubbard profiles as more of a committee back because he seems to lack pass-catching ability. With this deficiency, his upside is capped a bit. If given the opportunity, he could jump into a 1st and 2nd down role and could be a consistent producer in a zone scheme. He has great patience, uses his blockers well, and has enough finishing speed to score long TDs.
Bill Belichick must’ve really missed having someone in that LeGarrette Blount role because Rhamondre Stevenson is a bowling ball running back who can fill that need immediately. From a fantasy perspective, this is a terrible landing spot because trying to figure out who the Patriots are going to utilize each week is still a nightmare. However, it seems like Belichick is trying to build up his defense and establish players in key roles on his offense that have worked for him in the past. The Patriots’ backfield is now a mess filled with Damien Harris, Sony Michel, James White, Branden Bolden, JJ Taylor, and Stevenson. Stevenson will project to Harris has two years left, while Michel is entering his last year unless New England decides to pick up his option next year. Stevenson is an interesting late third or early fourth-round pick due to the fact that the Blount role has been relevant in the past. But it’s so crowded right now, that you’re hoping he can survive next year’s draft too before really adding much to your fantasy teams and that’s a bet I’m not hoping to take.
Michael Carter averaged eight yards per carry during his senior season at UNC, but the tape really looked underwhelming as a whole. When I watch Michael Carter, I see someone who is always looking at where the hole will be created for him, instead of someone who is running to make yards for himself. On the inside, he keeps a good low pad level, as if to hide from defenders, but doesn’t have the burst to break through early oncoming defenders. On the outside, Carter does well combining his speed and vision, however, his acceleration and deceleration in and out of his cuts are underwhelming which makes him feel slower. I have some big doubts about Carter’s ability as a rusher at the next level.
The former Florida State tight end found a home in Georgia after transferring this past season due to the turmoil that is the Florida State program right now. His knee injury in the pre-season limited his production this season to just six catches for 108 yards and a score. He was known for pass-catching in his high school days but has transitioned to being more dominant in the run blocking game. He still shows flashes of his catching ability by being able to take big hits and holding onto the ball. Look for him to be a target in the red zone due to his strong hands and large catch radius. He will be a boom or bust type fantasy player until he can solidify his role in the league.
Dyami Brown was drafted 82nd overall by the Washington Football Team, becoming the 12th wide receiver and 24th overall fantasy player in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Trey Sermon barely makes the cutoff for statistically projected relevancy in fantasy be being drafted at the backend of round three by the 49ers. This isn’t a smash spot for Sermon to land by any means due to the carousel of running backs that we’ve seen Shanahan use the past few years. However, if he can stay healthy, he will have the opportunity for big workloads as the only other running backs on the roster are the oft-injured Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, JaMychal Hasty, and newly signed Wayne Gallman. How many of those players have contracts locked up past 2021 right now? None of them. How many of those players are making over one million dollars this year? Only Mostert. Mostert will be the main back until he gets hurt, unfortunately. Sermon has a “get up the field quickly” mentality and is very athletic. He’ll work his way up the depth chart quickly. He’s not the safest pick, but a running back with a path to legit carries in a good offense that wants to run the ball is very enticing. He’s the RB4 in this class unless something craZy happens as we end the third round. I’ll be aiming for Sermon in the middle of round two, but his hype might push him even higher. If he gets to the early second, it’ll be too rich for me.
Amari Rodgers played four full seasons with Clemson, and he didn’t produce high-level statistics until his Senior season. In his four-year college career, Rodgers produced a total of 181 receptions for 2,144 yards and 15 touchdowns. After his Freshman season, we caught glimpses of Rodgers starting to mold into a college star. He caught 55 passes for 575 yards and four touchdowns during his sophomore season. Unfortunately, he took a step back and caught 25 fewer passes and only produced 426 yards and four touchdowns his Junior year. Finally, he took over as one of the best pass-catchers in the nation in his final season at Clemson. He produced career-highs in receptions (77), receiving yards (1,020), and receiving touchdowns (7). His 1,020 receiving yards placed him 10th amongst all wide receivers in Division 1 last season. He has the talent and experience to become a reliable target and return specialist at the pro level.
At his Tennessee Pro Day, Josh Palmer measured in at 6’1” and 210 lbs. Which equates to a BMI of 27.7. He ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash, equating to a 101.52-Speed Score, and at 6’1” that is a 102.02-Height Adjusted Speed Score. Both scores place him in the 67th percentile or higher. He doesn’t show elite athleticism as he recorded a 34” vertical jump, 124” broad jump, and he ran the short shuttle in 4.25 seconds and the three-cone in 6.98 seconds.