With the 2021 NFL Draft in the books and teams beginning their offseason mini camps, the NFL offseason is approaching a lull. We will overreact to one-on-one videos of a wide receiver breaking a defensive back’s ankles on a route when the receiver knows the play and the defensive back does not. Or it might be in the form of a running back making a decent-looking body catch against air. We may even see more statistics about Zach Wilson being 0-5 against teams with 10 or more wins in that respective season and posting just one passing touchdown in those five games.
With the NFL expanding to a 17-game regular season we can expect to see a number of the counting statistics record be broken based solely on the increased volume alone. Let us take a look through the history books and examine which records should be broken with the increased game schedule and which records should stand the test of time.
Rookie Records
Rookie records are the most likely to be broken, by the simple fact that they are easier to break. We are looking at a specific set of 11 records; passing attempts, passing yardage, passing TDs, interceptions, rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing TDs, receptions, receiving yards, and finally receiving TDs. However, historically speaking of the rookie records seven have been broken in the last 20 years versus nine such records being broken all-time. So why do I say that the rookie records are easier to break? I say this because eight of the eleven records are based on the passing game, and to put it simply we are living in a passing world in the NFL. Let’s dive into the records, how likely they are to be broken, and the most likely candidates to break them.
Passing Records – Rookies
Two of the rookie passing records were broken last season by Justin Herbert, who profiles as the next great fantasy quarterback. Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning round out the remaining records as the last two high-pedigree Indianapolis Colts draft selections.
Passing Attempts
Andrew Luck came into a very interesting situation when he was drafted first overall in 2012. He joined a team that had won at least ten games nine out of the last ten seasons, with the 2011 season being a two-win campaign because of a neck injury to franchise quarterback Peyton Manning. He began his career with a seasoned likely Hall of Famer in Reggie Wayne, a trusted veteran in Donnie Avery, and a young and emerging T.Y. Hilton. He also had a trusted pass catcher at the tight end position in Dallas Clark, and Stanford teammate Colbie Fleener.
Contenders: Trevor Lawrence
Despite adding a generational quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, he is still joining a team that is coming off a one-win season. To break Luck’s passing attempts record Lawrence needs to average 36.9 pass attempts over the 17 games. Last season the Jaguars averaged 38.5 attempts per game. To break the per game record, Lawrence would need to attempt 39.25 passes per game and play in all 17 games. Both are within his range of outcomes in 2021.
Confidence level: very high
Completions
Justin Herbert broke the completions record last season for the Chargers as he completed 396 passes in just 15 games. To break the counting stats record a rookie would need to complete an average of 23.4 passes over the 17 games. However, Joe Burrow was on a 16-game pace to complete 404 passes in the Bengals pass-happy offense.
Contenders: Trevor Lawrence
If we stay under the above assumption that Trevor Lawrence will attempt the 36.9 pass attempts per game, at his career 66% completion percentage this would equate to 417 completions in a 17-game season. However, it is rare for quarterbacks to maintain their college efficiency as rookies, if Lawrence’s accuracy drops to 63% over 17 games he would fall one completion shy of the record.
Confidence level: below-average
Passing Yards
On his rookie record 627 passing attempts, Andrew Luck also broke the yardage record with 4,374 yards as a rookie. To break this record over 17 games a quarterback would need to average 257.4 yards per game. To break the per game record a quarterback would need to average at least 273.4 yards and play in all 17 games. Over the past three years, only two quarterbacks average over 257.4 yards per game (Herbert and Burrow) out of the 12 first-round quarterbacks. Only Herbert averaged over 273.4 yards to break the per-game adjusted record.
Contenders: Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields
We have already discussed Lawrence ad nauseam so you can presume that I will say based on the Jaguars game script they will be in passing situations, but that’s getting somewhat tired. Justin Fields joins a Bears team and gives them a clear upgrade at the position. He is being dropped into a situation where the team averaged 38 pass attempts per game last season. Over 17 games with that passing volume, Fields would need to average just 6.7 yards per attempt to break the record. As the full-time Ohio State starter, Fields’s average over nine yards per attempt in both seasons, which gives him a relatively high likelihood of breaking this record. The only thing standing in his way is Andy Dalton and Matt Nagy not naming him the week 1 starter.
Confidence level: high
Passing Touchdowns
In 2020 Just Herbert broke Baker Mayfield‘s record for passing touchdowns that he set in 2018. Mayfield broke the rookie record set by Peyton Manning in 1998 and Russell Wilson in 2012. This is a record that has often changed hands since the NFL expanded as a passing game and quarterback safety rules have been put in place. Herbert threw for 31 touchdowns last season which over 17 games would equate to over 35 TDs (reminder Herbert only started 15 games). To break this record a quarterback would have to average 1.9 touchdowns per game and start all 17 games.
Contenders: Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson
Lawrence and Wilson are the two rookie quarterbacks who are likely to play all 17 games for their franchises, as Lance, Fields, and Jones all have veteran quarterbacks expected to act as bridge quarterbacks allowing them to develop and learn the offense without taking the beating that rookie quarterbacks take when adjusting to the next level. For Wilson, this is too tall of a task to expect him to make. He had two or more passing touchdowns in 18 of his 30 starts, 11 of these were in 2020 versus the incredibly soft competition that BYU faced in the schedule against the Sun Belt, Mountain West, and Conference USA opponents.
Lawrence on the other hand would also need to only average a bit over two touchdown passes per game, but he has a strong track record of doing so, projects to attempt around 200 more passes than Wilson. Lawrence had 28 games as the starter in Clemson in which he threw two or more touchdowns in his 40 career starts.
Confidence level: high, but it won’t be Wilson to break it.
Passing Interceptions
Peyton Manning’s only record in this cohort is his longstanding interception record of 28 which accounted for nearly 5% of his total pass attempts in 1998. Only three rookie quarterbacks have surpassed the 20-interception mark since Manning’s record-breaking season. This may be the unbreakable record of the bunch. However, we are seeing a shift in the NFL front office mindset favoring throwing rookie quarterbacks into the fire early in their career and deciding to move on while they are still under considerable contracts. To break the 28 interception record, a rookie quarterback would have to average 1.7 interceptions per game to break, and 1.8 interceptions per game to break the extrapolated record.
Contenders: Zach Wilson
Zach Wilson enters 2021 as the full-time New York Jets starting quarterback which historically has been a fantasy wasteland. The Jets are in line for a six- or seven-win season according to Vegas Insiders win total under/overs, which is the fourth-lowest in the NFL. This means that the Jets will be in a lot of comeback situations in 2021, which yields a higher volume of downfield passes which are innately more volatile results. Zach Wilson has not succeeded in his experience against other teams with 10 or more wins in college, this is what his rookie season may look like against pro-caliber defenders.
Playing in all 17 games is likely to be a prerequisite for breaking Peyton Manning’s long-standing interception record, although I think it is a record he’d be happy to see broken. Zach Wilson is the most likely contender to break the rookie interception record especially when considering his lack of success against the top level of competition that he has faced.
Confidence level: above-average.
As we progress through this exercise we will next be looking at rookies at skill positions and their chances of breaking rookie records. We will then look at how the 17 game season may impact veteran players and their chase to break NFL records.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
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