dynasty wide receivers

Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC North

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. The NFC North is the eighth and final divisional breakdown. Check out other breakdowns by clicking on each respective division (AFC North, NFC West, AFC West, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East) here at DFF. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Enjoy. 

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Rapid Reaction: Michael Thomas’ Ankle

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Thomas injured his ankle twice during the regular season last year and was expected to undergo surgery on it as early as January of 2021. Unfortunately for his team, it looks like now he won’t be looking 100% until we hit the ⅓ mark of the season. The Saints schedule has a bye Week 6 before they head into a Monday Night Football matchup against the division-rival Seahawks in Week 7. Given the expected timeline, it’s hard for me to imagine the Saints rushing him back there for the week 5 game against WFT at about the 3 to 3.5-month mark given the uncertainty of when the surgery actually occurred in June. Expecting a push for a Week 7 return makes the most sense when projecting this early on.

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Corey Davis: 2021 Dynasty Profile

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To get a general idea of who Corey Davis is, he was an Upside prospect out of Western Michigan. Coming into the league at 6 feet 2.8 inches, 209 pounds, and a 26.3 BMI, he qualified as an Alpha. Which is a solid start to a profile, a prospect with potential upside and Alpha size. Unfortunately for Davis, he was selected by a team that deployed a low passing volume. Which played a big part in consensus not being high on him after his rookie season where he posted 375 receiving yards on 65 targets. But the raw numbers don’t do him justice. He owned a 19.1% target share is quite impressive. To get an idea of what Corey Davis’s first season told us, here is the fellow Upside Alpha’s who posted a target share within 3% of Corey Davis’ 19.1%.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC West

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With the injury bug attacking San Francisco as a team in recent seasons, the rookie RB could find opportunities sooner than later. Jeff Wilson has already been struck with bad luck this offseason with a torn meniscus. Raheem Mostert is penciled in as the team’s starter for now, and he has played in all 16 games once in his seven years in the league. San Francisco also brought in Wayne Gallman from free agency this offseason, an RB who has never played in all 16 games and only holds 14 career starts under his belt in four seasons. 

In comes the rookie out of Ohio State, Trey Sermon. He was drafted out of the third round in this year’s NFL Draft, and he may find a steady role in this offense. Although he isn’t known as an elite pass-catcher, it wouldn’t be surprising if he turned into one. Right now, there are the three other RBs that will battle with him for playing time, but if he could find a way to become a threat in the receiving game, there’s no doubt that he will take more snaps than both Gallman and Wilson.

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Robby Anderson

2021 Projections: Carolina Panthers

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The Panthers have typically been a run-heavy team in years past. This is due to them having Cam Newton and a revolving door at QB. Now that they have a stable passer in Darnold I think they will throw more often. In 2020 they had a pass to rush play ratio of 1.35 which is exactly league average. For 2021 I have them bumping up to a 1.41 ratio. As for their rush-to-pass touchdown ratio they have had a very low one of .85 in 2019 and .84 in 2020. Typically this sort of thing regresses to the league mean of 1.82, and I find it unlikely that we will see this low of a ratio again. So, for 2021 I am giving them a ratio of 1.25. Now let us look at what these trends do to the individual players.

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2021 Projections: Denver Broncos

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The wide receiver group for Denver also has a lot of ambiguity in itself too. Jerry Jeudy operated as the team’s top pass catcher in 2020 but Courtland Sutton was the lead dog in 2019. Who should we expect to be the alpha in 2021? I did my projections under the assumption the Jeudy would perform more so as the slot guy that may garner more targets but have lower yards per reception and touchdowns. While Sutton will be utilized as the mid to deep WR threat on the outside of the field and looked at more in the red zone. This means he can see fewer targets but achieve a similar yardage output and more touchdowns. My projections relay this well, and they both average within .5 fantasy points per game of each other. I think they will both be weekly mid-tier to low-tier WR2s so Sutton having an ADP of WR32 feels good and Jeudy having an ADP of WR41 feels awesome. I like them both at their ADP, but I do not like drafting two wide receivers from the same team in a typical redraft league. Therefore my recommended plan of action would be to pass on Sutton and draft Jeudy later. Jeudy also has a higher upside because he has the potential to see way more targets and produce more points in a more consistent way.

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2021 Projections: Cleveland Browns

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Baker Mayfield had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2019, but we got to see him bounce back with a good 2020 season where he threw for 3500 yards and 26 touchdowns. I have him projected to expand on this in 2021 and collect almost 4200 passing yards along with 29 touchdowns. Seems pretty reasonable to me. A small increase in throws per game and adding a 17th game certainly make up for that increase in pass yards. This leaves Baker averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game, resulting in a low QB2 ranking. Baker’s current redraft ADP is QB16, this is a tad high for me. I would feel much better about getting him at the QB20-24 range, I am fading him at his ADP and so should you. However, if he happens to fall a few spots I would gladly take him in that previously mentioned 20-24 range.

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Startup Strategies: Drafting to Reload, Not Rebuild

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Rookie drafts are wrapping up and startups are the only thing getting dynasty owners through the off-season. If you’re a true dynasty degenerate, at least set yourself up for success from the draft. We’re not going to just set ourselves up for success now, but build a sustainable roster for the future to create a true “dynasty.” You don’t have to go all-in on big-name vets, nor do you need to only draft players under 26. Mix a little of both strategically.

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Chasing ‘Ships and Flipping Pieces: Part 2 – Franchise Value and Vision

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I specialize in the FFPC dynasty format, where there is a somewhat unique constraint that drives market action. You have to cut down to 16 players by the end of March, carrying just 20 in-season including a K and a DEF. That means that after the Super Bowl there is only about a month and a half to get deals done to get your roster trimmed down. Or you can risk cutting guys that have a lot of value. Most owners try to avoid that. This makes that particular trading period an absolute boon of market activity. There are lots of “one man’s junk is another man’s treasure” kind of deals. And there are lots of premiums paid for studs and there are lots of “cashing out dollars for three quarters” type of deals. 

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Fourth Year: Budget “Buy-Now”

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The most expensive option on this list but a clear example of the dynasty community’s “what have you done for me lately” mindset. Sutton is a player that can be bought for a late first or early second who has already produced multiple fantasy-relevant seasons, including a 72/1,112/6 season in 2019. Going into his age 26 season this year, he is a player that offers a much safer floor than others going in that ADP range having already proven he can do it with a rookie QB in Drew Lock. Sutton offers genuine WR1 upside. It would be remiss to not mention the fact that this offense has more targets than it did in 2019 now boasting Noah Fant, Jerry Jeudy, & Javonte Williams, but for a QB like Lock that is fighting for his job, he will be looking to a guy like Sutton who has performed for him before.

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2021 Buy Low Dynasty Sleepers

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It’s officially start-up season! The buzz of the NFL Draft and free agency has worn off, rookie drafts are wrapping up, and dynasty managers are left chasing that sweet high. We’re all scraping for every bit of info we can from OTAs like we’re searching for a loose fry at the bottom of the bag. Welcome to The Void. The space between OTAs and Mini-Camps where every fantasy junkie is trying to fill said void anyway we can. Most of us are now obsessively trading or telling ourselves “just one more startup,” followed by more obsessive trading. Depending on what boat you’re in, let’s look at those cheap sleepers you can either buy low on the league trade block or take a flier during a startup so you can spend that high draft stock elsewhere using Sleeper’s ADP data, and scouting reports from NFL.com.

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2021 Projections: Buffalo Bills

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The Buffalo RB group is interesting. I gave Zack Moss more rushing work than Devin Singletary and gave Singletary more receiving work than Moss. Which matches the trend set when both were active in 2020. Unfortunately, this creates two RBs that I do not want. At first, I found it surprising that Singletary came out with more points than Moss because I thought Moss’s TD upside would trump the receiving upside. However, Singletary uses that receiving upside to achieve four receiving touchdowns. Both of these running backs ended up with seven total touchdowns, but Singletary had 30 more receptions which give him the point advantage. These RBs may not seem desirable, but at their respective ADPs, I could see myself owning some Singletary. He is currently being drafted after Zach Moss, so I would take advantage of this by fading Moss and scooping Singletary late.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: AFC South

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. This week’s coverage is all about the AFC South. This is the third division breakdown, and you can find the AFC East here and the NFC East here. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Let’s dive right in. 

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2021 Projections: LA Chargers

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In this series, I am diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.

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Elite: The Case for D.J. Moore

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The receiver with two 1,000+ yard receiving seasons in their first three years or the receiver with just one top-24 season? Whichever way you want to portrait it, D.J. Moore has a lot of different interpreters that are struggling to find consensus. The range on Moore’s ADP is one of the most drastic out of all players. But where should we be valuing him? Is his WR16 ADP low enough to find value gains or not quite worth the price?

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Julio Jones Traded to the Tennessee Titans

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Julio Jones will be traded to the Tennessee Titans for future second and fourth-round picks. Jones who was drafted as the sixth overall selection in 2011, spent 10 productive seasons in Atlanta. In that time Jones became one of the most productive wide receivers in NFL history hauling in 848 catches for 12,896 yards and 60 TDs. He will instantly become Tennessee’s WR1 sufficiently boosting the outlook for Ryan Tannehill’s 2021; let’s dive into how it impacts his fellow Titans teammates along with how his departure impacts the viable fantasy options in Atlanta.

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Draft Stock Watch Week 1

DFF Draft Coverage: Jaylen Waddle to the Miami Dolphins

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Jaylen Waddle has the speed that an opposing defense must account for pre-snap on every play of the game. He immediately enters the league as one of the fastest WRs in the world. He has all the tools to become a number one WR in the NFL. Waddle should be the second or third WR selected in dynasty rookie drafts. He will be a mid-late first-round pick in SF leagues and an early-mid first-round pick in 1QB leagues. Waddle also offers value in the return game, for owners whose leagues provide points for return yardage and return TDs. 

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Top 12 Dynasty WRs And Their Advanced Statistics

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In this article, I will be dissecting the current top twelve dynasty wide receivers, based on ADP provided by Rotoviz.com. To do this I have compiled a list of these WRs, their base stats, calculated their advanced stats that I think are important, and turned it all into an easily digestible chart. There are a few things you will need to know before we look at the chart so let’s talk about those.

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2021 Rookie Pass Catcher Comparison Countdown: Part 1

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In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class’s wide receivers, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. We will count down the top-15 pass-catchers with their comparable players as our countdown to the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 29th.

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A.J. Brown: Big Winner in Free Agency

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As the first week in NFL Free Agency has come and gone, dynasty owners can now sit back and take in all that transpired. In general, the highly anticipated free agency period did not quite live up to the hype. There were not as many big splash landings as the dynasty community had hoped for. The reduced salary cap played a significant role in the lack of major long-term contracts we have come to expect when big names hit the open market. With that said, some moves do spark some excitement in terms of fantasy football.

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