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Late Round Dynasty Gem: Eli Heidenreich

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Within the Dynasty Fantasy Football community, most die-hard Dynasty enthusiasts have heard the name Eli Heidenreich. But the main question is: does he have potential? After being selected by his hometown Steelers in the seventh round (230th overall), he’s a very underrated player who would have gone a bit higher if he had played at a larger college football program and gotten more national recognition. Heidenreich will land on the Philadelphia Eagles schedule on November 22 and is an intriguing hybrid offensive player with elite pass-catching ability. When digging deeper into the analytics on Heidenreich, he’s actually an intriguing prospect who has all the talent to become a hidden gem of Dynasty rookie drafts. Let’s dive in! 

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Late Round Dynasty Rookie Draft Gems

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Eli Heidenreich is an off-the-radar player from Navy who played in one of the most unique offensive systems in college football, notorious for amplifying a singular player’s productivity. 

Heidenreich has some eye-popping analytics. Yards per route run is one of the strongest singular predictors of future fantasy production. On its own, YPRR carries a 0.43 correlation when using current-year data to project next year’s performance. Heidenreich’s 4.73 yards per route run is easily tops in this class, well above the wide receivers who were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. 

His draft capital was poor. But he was drafted. And his Pittsburgh landing spot was pretty solid. Kenneth Gainwell was the RB 20 overall in fantasy points per game last year.  Heidenreich has a shot at a similar role eventually.

Steelers beat writer, Mark Kaboly, posted on X, “ I am not saying that Eli Heidenreich should even be mentioned in the same breath as Christian McCaffrey because C-Mac is elite and a different breed … but you can’t help but notice similarities in how they move around a football field. (yeah, this is going to be taken out of context, oh well).”

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My Top-Owned Dynasty Rookies

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This weekend, we wrapped up my final dynasty rookie draft of the offseason (outside of my home dynasty league, which drafts during the preseason). With rookies now rostered in 17 of my 18 leagues, I thought it was a good time to discuss my top-owned dynasty rookies. 

Using the “exposure” feature in the Dynasty Control Room, I’m able to see my ownership percentage of every single fantasy player. Being a “portfolio manager” in 18 leagues, this feature is especially useful, showing me who I need to invest more heavily in, as well as the guys I should look to lower my exposure on. The tool also shows you which players DFF expert consensus is above and below market on, to give you an idea of whether you’re investing in the right players. 

With that, let’s take a look at my top 5 most-owned rookies right now. 

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“Colossus Jr.” 2026 Final Rookie RB1 Analytical Model Rankings

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After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year.  Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find here, this RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited. 

The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers are trying to accumulate the most fantasy points. NFL teams are trying to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively. 

You can find last year’s 2025 RB1 post-draft published model here. Our model was largely in line with draft capital, with 7 of the first 8 players selected in the NFL draft also in the model’s top 7. A big outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL drafting him 26th among all running backs. 

Now on to the 2026 class. 

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“Colossus” 2026 Final Rookie WR1 Analytical Model Rankings

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today. 

This article covers the final post-NFL Draft analytical model rankings for the wide receiver position. These WR1 model rankings will be your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.

You can find the running back RB1 model here.

For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges.

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Projecting Quarterback Success for Dynasty

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I am trying to help us find ways to avoid the bust at quarterback, especially in rookie drafts. This is the cheapest most of these quarterbacks will ever be, but if you miss on one and spend a first-round pick on them, it could set you back even further.

I am looking at quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft and breaking them down into 4 tiers from 2015 to 2025.

I call the 1st tier the “green tier”. These are the quarterbacks who score a 90 or higher in my model and went to a Power 5 school. My model includes a film grade from Lance Zierlein, fantasy points per game in college, and their passing touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio.

There have been 37 quarterbacks drafted since 2015 in the first round, but only 13 ended up in tier 1, the green tier.

Below are the names of those 13 guys.

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Brenen Thompson

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In 2025, Thompson was third-team All-SEC. He set a Mississippi State single-season record with 1,054 receiving yards, was the first Mississippi State player to lead the SEC in receiving yards, and led the SEC in average depth per target. He was also a nominee for the Conerly Trophy (top player in Mississippi) and made the Biletnikoff Award Watch List. Thompson is projected as a 4th-round selection by NFL Mock Draft Database, and Lance Zierlein has a player comparison to J.J. Nelson.
STRENGTHS
Thompson is a smaller-built vertical threat who has an eye-popping 39.8 yards per touchdown catch. Seven of these ten career touchdowns have come on plays of 42 yards or more. Clearly, he’s a dynamic playmaker based on these statistics alone. His speed allows him to have easy wins over the top that require safety help in man coverage. Thompson shows a shifty release against press coverage and runs past cornerbacks before they can even turn and run. He adds an immediate vertical dimension that can loosen defenses.

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Robert Henry Jr.

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Robert Henry Jr. signed with the Washington Commanders after going undrafted in the 2026 NFL Draft. 
COLLEGE PRODUCTION

Robert Henry Jr. began his career at Jones College, a community college in Mississippi. He produced as a true freshman, but his breakout came in 2022 as a sophomore. That season, Henry rushed for over 1,300 yards and 18 touchdowns, earning first-team NJCAA All-American honors. 

Following this noteworthy season, Henry transferred up to D1 football, playing for the Roadrunners of UTSA. He made the jump with no issues, rushing for 11 touchdowns in 2023. This past season was his best one for UTSA, surpassing 1,000 rushing yards and finding the endzone nine times on the ground. He was used minimally in the receiving game, but did have two receiving touchdowns in 2025. 

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Kevin Coleman Jr.

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Coleman began his college career at Jackson State, finding some success as a true freshman on his way to 475 receiving yards and three touchdowns. 

Coleman transferred up to Louisville for his sophomore season, where he was relegated to a part-time role, running just 222 total routes. He finished that season third on the team in receptions and receiving yards, behind Jamari Thrash and Chris Bell. 

Following the 2023 season, Coleman transferred again to Mississippi State, where he posted the best numbers of his career. He was a focal point in the Bulldogs’ offense, nearly hitting 1,000 receiving yards and finding the endzone six times. 

If you’ve caught on at this point, you probably guessed right. Coleman transferred for a THIRD time, closing out his senior year at Missouri. His numbers took a dip in his final season, posting 66 receptions for 732 yards and just one touchdown. 

As a whole, Coleman finished his career with 1.98 yards per route run (YPRR) and a 21.3% target rate, both fairly pedestrian numbers for an NFL-caliber prospect. He’s purely a slot receiver, running 92% of his routes in the slot in college. 

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Eric McAlister

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McAlister attended Azle High School in Azle, Texas, where he caught for 2,947 yards and 43 touchdowns in his final two seasons. He was rated as a three-star recruit and committed to play college football for the Boise State Broncos over offers from schools such as Nebraska, San Diego State, Utah, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Boise State

In week 10 of the 2022 season, McAlister hauled in two receptions for 33 yards and his first career touchdown versus BYU.He finished the 2022 season with 11 receptions for 259 yards and four touchdowns. In week 10 of the 2023 season, McAlister notched eight receptions for 85 yards in a 37–30 loss to Fresno State. He finished the 2023 season with 47 receptions for 873 yards and five touchdowns for the Broncos. Late in the 2023 season, with three games remaining, he stepped away from the team and entered his name into the NCAA transfer portal.

TCU

McAlister transferred to play for the TCU Horned Frogs in 2024, where he had two productive seasons. McAlister combined for 111 receptions, nearly 2,000 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns. His final season was most impressive, with 1,190 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. 

Some Red Flags

TCU wide receiver Eric McAlister was arrested on a charge of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.

He was also charged with a second count of terroristic threat, causing fear of imminent serious bodily injury, which is a misdemeanor. According to his indictment, he was accused of threatening a man with a gun.

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Tanner Koziol

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Koziol began his career at Ball State in 2022, where he was an immediate producer, posting 35 receptions for 379 yards and seven touchdowns as a freshman. After a small regression in his sophomore year, Koziol broke out in Year 3, finishing with 94 receptions for 840 yards and eight touchdowns. 

Following his big junior year, Koziol made the jump to the Power 4, transferring to Houston for his final season. He continued finding success against tougher competition, proving to be one of Conner Weigman’s most reliable targets in 2025. He closed out his senior year with 74 receptions for 727 yards and six touchdowns. He led all FBS tight ends in both targets (94) and receptions in 2025. 

Koziol’s efficiency over his final two seasons indicates he should be a very fantasy-friendly player if he manages to see the NFL field consistently. He averaged 2.12 yards per route run (YPRR) and a 29.4% target rate, both excellent marks for a tight end. 

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FILM

Below is a snippet of my film breakdown for Koziol in our 2026 Dynasty Rookie Draft Guide:

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Cole Payton

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Cole Payton took a big step forward in 2025 when he finally got the keys to the offense full-time.

He finished the season completing 71.9% of his passes for 2,719 yards, with a 16-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. On top of that, he averaged 12.1 yards per attempt, which tells you he wasn’t just taking easy throws. He was pushing the ball downfield.

What really adds to his profile is what he can do with his legs. He added 777 rushing yards, which shows he’s not just mobile; he’s a real part of the run game.

This was a big jump for him, especially after being used more in a limited role earlier in his career. In 2025, he showed he can handle being the guy.

Payton stats

FILM

When you’re scouting a quarterback, it’s not about what happened. It’s about why it happened. And with Cole Payton, the traits are what stand out.

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Emmett Johnson

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Emmett Johnson was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs, becoming the 6th running back and 161st overall player in the 2026 NFL Draft.
COLLEGE PRODUCTION

Emmett Johnson took over the Nebraska backfield in 2025 and didn’t look back. He handled a big workload and produced at a high level, finishing with 1,451 rushing yards on 251 carries (5.8 YPC) and 15 touchdowns.

What really stands out is how much he improved over time. His efficiency got better every year, and by his final season, he was clearly the engine of that offense.

He also brought real value in the passing game with 46 catches for 370 yards, and his 15.9% target share shows he wasn’t just a checkdown option. He was a legit part of the offense.

He may not have the typical “bell-cow” size, but the production and usage say this is a player who can handle volume and make an impact in multiple ways.

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