Monday, May 24, 2021, Shannon Sharpe surprised Julio Jones with a phone call, during which Jones proclaimed “I’m outta there, man” when asked about his future in Atlanta. While it is uncertain whether Jones realized he was on live television or not, he may have manifested his destiny with that comment.
Julio Jones will be traded to the Tennessee Titans for future second and fourth-round picks. Jones who was drafted as the sixth overall selection in 2011, spent 10 productive seasons in Atlanta. In that time Jones became one of the most productive wide receivers in NFL history hauling in 848 catches for 12,896 yards and 60 TDs. He will instantly become Tennessee’s WR1 sufficiently boosting the outlook for Ryan Tannehill’s 2021; let’s dive into how it impacts his fellow Titans teammates along with how his departure impacts the viable fantasy options in Atlanta.
It is interesting to note that Arthur Smith surely had to sign off on the trade before it can be finalized. No one has a better understanding of the Titans offense and what a player like Julio could do in it. While we don’t have Arthur Smith’s level of insights on the matter, we will try to read the tea leaves and provide actionable fantasy football insights that could lead to league championships.
ATLANTA FALCONS
By moving Julio Jones, the Falcons are parting ways with the face of their franchise and looking towards a future headlined by Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. Luckily, we have enough of a sample size of Julio Jones missing games where we can explore the impact.
Matt Ryan
Ryan has played in 125 games that Julio Jones also played. Overall his volume was not impacted by Julio being active or inactive, however having Julio Jones did increase Ryan’s efficiency. Former Falcons GM Thomas Dmitrivof drafted Calvin Ridley in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. On a podcast with The Ringer, he told Kevin Clark that he believed Ridley has everything needed to be Jones’ heir-apparent. Jones leaving is a negative for Ryan, but with Ridley, Gage, and Hurst returning he should be able to maintain his production. The addition of superstar tight end Kyle Pitts could be a one-for-one replacement for Julio Jones, though we tamper expectations with rookie tight ends.
Calvin Ridley
Ridley is the main beneficiary of Jones departing. Though it was questioned whether Ridley could play as a true alpha or whether he was Jones’ second-fiddle, he squashed those qualms with his 2020 performance. In his three seasons with the Falcons Ridley saw on average four targets, three catches, and 38 yards increase with Jones inactive. With Jones departing and tampering expectations for rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, Ridley is in the conversation for producing as the top overall wide receiver in 2021.
Kyle Pitts
Unlike Ridley, Gage, and Hurst, Kyle Pitts has not taken a snap in the NFL. While we are tampering with our expectations on his production for 2021, Pitts is already pushing dynasty as the overall top tight end. Jones’ departure raises the ceiling on Pitts’ 2021. Pitts is a top asset in dynasty leagues, especially formats that start two tight ends and/or contain a reception premium. Along with that, he is a top ten tight end from a redraft perspective.
Russell Gage
Gage is the player who gets the sneakiest increased production projection. In games with Julio Jones active Gage has been a replacement-level fantasy option, however, with Jones inactive, Gage becomes a viable WR2 option. Gage should see the bulk of the Jones vacated production in 2021 with the defenses keying on Ridley and keeping help for containing Pitts after the catch. Gage should feast on intermediate route production, he remains viable in dynasty formats but gets a major increase in value in redraft and best-ball league formats.
Julio Jones requested a trade, within that request he indicated he wanted to play for a contender and a team with a quarterback that could target him further downfield. It seems that he got one of his requests granted and it was to play for a contender. The Tennessee Titans have are coming off consecutive playoff appearances including a trip to the AFC Championship game in the 2019 season. However, in the 2020 season, Matt Ryan attempted 86% more deep passes than Ryan Tannehill. Jones’ usage may be a bit different than his ideal situation, but he is still one of the top wide receivers in the NFL.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Julio Jones is entering his age 32 season and has shown no physical signs of slowing down. Since 2000 there have been 242 instances of a wide receiver recording a statistic at age 32 or older. In ten of those instances, the player recorded a top-five season amongst wide receivers. Over 10% of these instances recorded a WR1 season, finishing top-12 at the position. There were 55 cases of a top-24 wide receiver finish which is a 22% rate. If we use 10 fantasy points per game as a baseline for serviceable wide receiver fantasy production, 111 of the sample size have averaged at least 10 points per game.
There is also a trend in fantasy football to fade wide receivers that are changing teams, because of a decreased production in their new landing spot. While this may have some weight, it’s clear that Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins have squashed that qualm. There have been 126 wide receiver seasons in which the player changed teams between the ages of 30 and 35. Ten times those wide receivers went on to produce over 200 PPR fantasy points. We have laid out all of the proponents that Julio’s productive years are not looming, now let’s explore how his addition impacts some of the other fantasy-viable Tennessee Titans.
Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill is losing his offensive guru in former OC Arthur Smith and substituting Julio Jones for the combination of Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. Including Adam Humphries who left for Washington, the Titans have 196 vacated targets between those three pass catchers, which is plenty enough to feed Julio Jones and increase A.J. Brown’s target share. Tannehill should be wheels up going forward with the addition of Julio Jones and the potential of Arthur Smith leaving could lead to an overall increased pass ratio. For reference, in neutral game scripts in 2020, the Titans ran 220 pass plays compared to 229 run plays.
A.J. Brown
Brown is coming off a cleanup procedure on both of his knees after the 2020 season. In a questionable video post-surgery, Brown revealed that he should have shut it down after Week 2. With all this speculation and the departures of Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Adam Humphries many projected a massive target share for Brown in 2021. While this volume upside is no longer plausible, Brown has always been efficient. There is no reason to believe that Brown won’t continue to progress and stay efficient within his continually developing role.
Derrick Henry
This is great news for Derrick Henry, while he may see some of his rushing opportunities be shifted to Jones and Brown targets, this is a situation where the tide raises all boats. Henry may not see his 378 rush attempts, which is the second-highest workload for a running back since 2011. He will simply be in more scoring opportunities with a more high-octane offense. Henry can now be strongly considered the most productive rusher in 2021. Despite his lack of receiving production, he also has a chance to become the fantasy RB1 and top overall player in fantasy due to this scoring upside combined with his projected workload.
Anthony Firkser
The backup tight end from the 2020 season, was projected to see a massive increase in targets with the departures of Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis. It is nearly impossible to project Firkser earning increased targets when competing with Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. Firkser is the big loser from the Julio Jones trade.
Summary
Matt Ryan’s value stays mostly flat, we can project two more starting seasons in Atlanta but beyond that is in question. Ryan will remain a strong secondary quarterback in Superflex formats and a decent starting option in single-quarterback formats. He is a guy worth spending a 2022 2nd round pick to acquire on contending teams.
Calvin Ridley is the hot item ticket as his value surges with the top overall wide receiver within his range of outcomes. Ridley is a hard hold due to his production and age for both contending and rebuilding teams.
Kyle Pitts’s value does not change, though his potential ceiling for 2021 production certainly rises. Pitts is nearly impossible to trade for in dynasty formats, he is one of the most valuable dynasty assets available due to the lack of elite options at the tight end position.
Russell Gage is a redraft and short-term dynasty buy for contenders, as well as a sell for rebuilding teams. In both situations, a late second to early third-round pick should get the job done for both buyers and sellers in dynasty formats.
Ryan Tannehill is a big winner as even if there is no increased pass volume, the efficiency should increase despite losing Arthur Smith. Tannehill at age 32 remains a strong dynasty asset, though it would likely be difficult to acquire him given the recent hype.
Derrick Henry is also a winner, with the second-most rushing attempts this decade we expected the volume to come down. With another top-tier pass catcher, this decrease in volume should be neutralized by increased efficiency. Derrick Henry is a great target for contenders to trade away their 2022 first-round draft picks plus to acquire.
A.J. Brown should continue to be an ultra-efficient target in the Titans offense, and the arrival of Jones insulates that projected efficiency. He also may see an increased target share along with drawing weaker competition from opposing defensive backs. Brown is a top wide receiver in the dynasty and the addition of Jones presents a small buying window.
Anthony Firkser becomes an afterthought, and any value that he had in dynasty leagues vanishes. Firkser could still make some noise if Brown or Jones miss time due to injury, but he is not worth meaningful assets for a team looking to make a fantasy championship push.
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