In this series, I am diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last 2-3 seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. As well as team-focused stuff like a pass to rush play ratio (this is just team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass to rush touchdown ratio, and total plays. I then use these past trends and try to predict what will be in store for 2021. Here are my projections for the LA Chargers’ fantasy-relevant players.
Keep in mind, these stats are for the new 17 game season and not the old 16 game season. In 2020 the Chargers had a 1.34 pass to rush rate and a 2.58 pass to rush TD rate. The league average in these numbers are 1.35 and 1.82. I do think the Chargers will be a better defense and win more games in 2021 so I have them running just a bit more and I have them with a TD ratio that’s closer to league average. In 2021 I assigned the chargers a 1.25 pass to rush rate and a 2.04 pass to rush TD rate. I feel both of these numbers are reasonable and conservative. I would not be surprised at all to see these numbers be a bit higher, thus favoring Herbert and increasing his fantasy point totals.
For Herbert, I pushed all of his efficiency stats up a little. But since I also lowered his volume he is projected for 300 fewer yards and one less total touchdown. He was very good in 2020 and his being a rookie made it even more impressive. It is for this reason that I gave him better efficiency in 2021, he should be able to grow as a passer and get even better this season. Averaging 23.1 points is still very solid though, it keeps him as a QB1, and remember there’s plenty of room for his volume to be closer to what it was last year. If that happens he has QB4 to 6 overall upside. I think he is being drafted appropriately and I am fine with taking him at ADP.
Austin Ekeler is a player that people like to argue about these days. Some people don’t think he can handle a full workload and others think the Chargers being a better team will cap his upside. Ekeler had 65 targets in 2020 and that was with missing almost seven entire games, that’s half the season. This is what leads me to project him for 96 targets in 2021, with the extra game. I also see him holding on to a large chunk of the rush share, so I projected him having 50% of the rushing attempts. This leads to a projection of just over 1700 total yards and eight TDs, placing him firmly in the mid-tier RB1 category. Ekeler should be drafted at whatever your second-round pick is, or even at the end of the first if you have a late pick. He has CMC type upside with the way he is used in the passing game. I will personally be owning him a lot this year.
Nothing out of the ordinary with Keenan Allen, he will be a floor wide receiver even with a huge weekly upside. He is a target monster but he is also one of the best red zone targets the team has with Hunter Henry leaving. He is being drafted just a few players too low but I am pretty ok with his spot right now. He makes a ton of sense as a WR1 if you start your draft with some RBs and maybe an elite TE.
My projections have Mike Williams as a decent flex play throughout the season too. He also has a very good weekly TD upside this year. I could see Williams leading the team in TDs if he completely eats up the Hunter Henry role. He is a good late grab at his ADP and I could see myself drafting him every once in a while.
Lastly, I want to touch on Josh Palmer and his expectations as a rookie. The Chargers seem to be pretty excited about him. So, I have him winning their WR3 job and producing a pretty solid rookie season. It’s only seven points per game, but if Mike Williams isn’t re-signed next year we could see Josh Palmer as Justin Herbert’s second favorite weapon behind Keenan in 2022 and beyond. If you want a more in-depth look at Josh Palmer check out this article detailing his immediate and future outlook with the Chargers.
That is all I have for you here today. I hope you enjoyed it and lookout for the next installment when I take on the Kansas City Chiefs and what their offense will look like with less competition at RB and Sammy Watkins shipping out of town.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content, along with rankings for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
