Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. This week’s coverage is all about the AFC South. This is the third division breakdown, and you can find the AFC East here and the NFC East here. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Let’s dive right in.
Colts
Stock Up – Michael Pittman Jr.
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2020 | IND | 13 | 40 | 503 | 12.6 | 1 |
There was a ton of hype surrounding Pittman Jr. going into last season as a rookie. Although he was overall a disappointment in fantasy, the first-year pro showed promise and even put together some impressive outings. He finished as the WR86 on the season, but he combined for 10 catches for 167 yards and one touchdown in weeks 10 and 11. Outside of that 2-week span, Pittman Jr. was irrelevant when it came to fantasy production.
He now enters his second season in the league with Carson Wentz as his new starting QB. Indianapolis’ receiving group looks very similar to last season, and Pittman Jr. is expected to compete with T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, and Jack Doyle as the team’s leading receiver. He finished third on the team in receiving yards in 2020, and he only scored one touchdown. With his big frame (6’4” and 225 lbs), he should see more red zone opportunities this season, and fantasy owners should expect more than just one measly touchdown reception.
Although Pittman Jr. was just the WR124 through Week 9, he served as the WR51 between weeks 10 and 17. We saw Pittman Jr. take a step forward midway through last season, and it’s safe to say that we can expect another step forward taken from the 23-year-old going into his second season. With Hilton getting older and battling more injuries, along with Campbell coming off back-to-back seasons of playing in less than half of the games, it’s the perfect time for Pittman Jr. to break out and become his team’s top receiver.
Pittman Jr.’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 61 receptions, 817 yards, 5 touchdowns
Stock Down – Zach Pascal
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2018 | IND | 16 | 27 | 268 | 9.9 | 2 |
| 2019 | IND | 16 | 41 | 607 | 14.8 | 5 |
| 2020 | IND | 16 | 44 | 629 | 14.3 | 5 |
Just because Pittman Jr.’s stock is up right now doesn’t mean every Colts WR’s stock should go up as well. Pascal has been a serviceable receiver the past few years who has found opportunities on the field due to his teammates’ poor health. Last season, Hilton missed one game and played hurt through many others. Campbell also dealt with injuries as he played in just two games after missing nine the season prior. On the other hand, Pascal has yet to miss a game in his three-year career, and he has taken advantage of the opportunities given to him.
The fourth-year pro finished as the WR56 last season, and the WR52 the season prior, in PPR leagues. Unless the Colts’ WR room gets hit by the injury bug once again this season, Pascal shouldn’t come close to those spots in 2021. Think about it. He’s got a new QB coming into town, and he sits as the team’s WR4 (more than likely). The 26-year-old is entering the final year of his contract, and Hilton, Campbell, and Pittman Jr. will likely receive plenty of targets.
RBs Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack should see targets from time to time, and Nyheim Hines demands attention as a receiver out of the backfield. He caught 63 of his 76 targets last season alone, and he has accumulated 170 receptions in his three years as a pro. Factor that in with the fact that Indianapolis loves to use double TE sets with Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox, and there’s simply not enough to go around for Pascal. As mentioned, he’s a serviceable receiver who thrives on opportunity, but it will take a lot for him to find those in 2021.
Pascal’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 30 receptions, 423 yards, 3 touchdowns
Jaguars
Stock Up – DJ Chark Jr.
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2018 | JAX | 11 | 14 | 174 | 12.4 | 0 |
| 2019 | JAX | 15 | 73 | 1,008 | 13.8 | 8 |
| 2020 | JAX | 13 | 53 | 706 | 13.3 | 5 |
There’s no doubt that Chark Jr. has elite talent as a receiver in this league. Injuries have prevented him from playing a full season yet in his three years as a pro. It also doesn’t help that Gardner Minshew is the best starting QB he has played with thus far. As you can see in the chart above, Chark Jr. has shown fantasy relevance, especially when he finished as the WR17 in 2019.
Last season was a down year for the 24-year-old, as he finished with 20 fewer receptions, 302 fewer receiving yards, and three fewer touchdown receptions from the season prior. He finished as the WR49, and his team went 1-15. Combine all of those aspects, and it’s hard to find a silver lining. Well, it was hard until the team drafted Trevor Lawrence in late April.
Lawrence is an immediate upgrade over every QB who has ever completed a pass to Chark Jr. in the past few years. He may not turn out to become the greatest thing since Peyton Manning (many have compared the two), but we know that Jacksonville’s HC Urban Meyer will implement a strong passing attack approach to this season. Chark Jr. will see a ton of opportunities, and it’s safe to say he will look more like the 2019 version of himself rather than the version we saw last season, barring injuries. Quick note: Laviska Shenault Jr. could have easily been in this “stock up” category as well.
Chark Jr.’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 79 receptions, 1,019 yards, 7 touchdowns
Stock Down – James Robinson
| Year | Team | Games Played | Carries | Yards | Yards/Carry | TDs | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2020 | JAX | 14 | 240 | 1,070 | 4.5 | 7 | 49 | 344 | 7.0 | 3 |
If you drafted Robinson, or traded for him early last year in your rookie drafts, you probably thought of yourself as a genius. And to be fair, you kind of were. That is, until April 29 when Jacksonville decided to take Travis Etienne in the 2021 NFL Draft. Sure, there are rumors that Urban Meyer is toying with the idea of Etienne practicing as a slot receiver. But let’s be real; sooner or later, Etienne will take over as this team’s workhorse RB.
It’s a shame that Robinson will more than likely give up his RB1 status already. He had a wonderful season last year, and he was one of the few bright spots for a 1-15 team. As a rookie, he rushed for more than 1,000 yards while also hauling in 49 receptions for 344 yards and three touchdowns. He was perfect for fantasy. He could produce great numbers on the ground while also producing at a great rate as a receiver out of the backfield (the epitome of a fantasy RB1).
Robinson also finished as the RB7 last year, but he was the RB4 until he missed the final two games of the regular season (for tanking purposes?). In comes Etienne, who arguably possesses better receiving skills, and he has shown greatness as a downhill runner during his time with Clemson. There’s a reason why he’s their all-time leading rusher in school history. Don’t expect Robinson to be completely shunned from Jacksonville’s offensive game plan, but you can almost certainly throw his RB1 (and RB2) value out the window.
Robinson’s 2021 Prediction
Rushing: 168 carries, 706 yards, 5 touchdowns
Receiving: 32 receptions, 266 yards, 1 touchdown
Texans
Stock Up – Tyrod Taylor
| Year | Team | Games Played | Completion Percentage | Yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | TDs |
| 2011 | BAL | 3 | 100.0% | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 2012 | BAL | 7 | 58.6% | 179 | 0 | 1 | 73 | 1 |
| 2013 | BAL | 3 | 20.0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 64 | 0 |
| 2014 | BAL | 1 | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 2015 | BUF | 14 | 63.7% | 3,035 | 20 | 6 | 568 | 4 |
| 2016 | BUF | 15 | 61.7% | 3,023 | 17 | 6 | 580 | 6 |
| 2017 | BUF | 15 | 62.6% | 2,799 | 14 | 4 | 427 | 4 |
| 2018 | CLE | 4 | 49.4% | 473 | 2 | 2 | 125 | 1 |
| 2019 | LAC | 8 | 66.7% | 33 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 2020 | LAC | 2 | 53.3% | 208 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Who knows what’s going to happen to Deshaun Watson before the start of the 2021 season. Obviously, there are allegations and tons of rumors surrounding the star QB. Even if he were given the go to play this season, we aren’t even sure if he will be a Houston Texan when September rolls around. In comes Tyrod Taylor, the presumed QB1 in Watson’s absence.
Taylor has had an up-and-down career in his nine years in the league. He was a three-year starter in Buffalo after spending his first three seasons in the league as a back-up for the Ravens. He has started games, in moderation, for the Browns and Chargers since leaving the Bills, and he has lost his QB1 status to both Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert during that span. Now he gets another opportunity for a Houston team that looks like a complete dumpster fire at this point.
If you look at the chart above, you can see that with a full season played, Taylor can produce excellent rushing numbers. His touchdown to interception ratio has always been solid, but he doesn’t throw for a ton of yards. He finished as the QB16 (2015), the QB8 (2016), and the QB16 (2017) during those three years as Buffalo’s starter. Don’t expect Taylor to start every game this season, but he should see the most snaps over players like Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel.
Taylor’s 2021 Prediction
Passing: 2,383 yards, 16 touchdowns, 7 interceptions
Rushing: 312 yards, 3 touchdowns
Stock Down – David Johnson
| Year | Team | Games Played | Carries | Yards | Yards/Carry | TDs | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2015 | ARI | 16 | 125 | 581 | 4.6 | 8 | 36 | 457 | 12.7 | 4 |
| 2016 | ARI | 16 | 293 | 1,239 | 4.2 | 16 | 80 | 879 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 2017 | ARI | 1 | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 | 6 | 67 | 11.2 | 0 |
| 2018 | ARI | 16 | 258 | 940 | 3.6 | 7 | 50 | 446 | 8.9 | 3 |
| 2019 | ARI | 13 | 94 | 345 | 3.7 | 2 | 36 | 370 | 10.3 | 4 |
| 2020 | HOU | 12 | 147 | 691 | 4.7 | 6 | 33 | 314 | 9.5 | 2 |
Doesn’t it seem like Johnson could be at least 35 years old at this point? He’s only one year shy of 30, and he’s entering his seventh season in the league. This will also be his second year in Houston, and in the fantasy world, Johnson was surprisingly productive in 2020. He finished as the RB21 in PPR leagues, but he went on a hot stretch where he served as the RB4 between Weeks 15 and 17 (fantasy playoffs). Although his rushing numbers weren’t eye-popping, he produced 17 receptions for 153 yards and one touchdown during those last three weeks.
Obviously, Johnson isn’t the same RB we all remember from 2016, but he still has some gas left in his tank. Although he seems like a fine player still, his fantasy production should easily drop this season with all the newcomers coming into town. Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram, and Rex Burkhead have all three been added to Houston’s roster this offseason. Sure, these three aren’t pure phenoms that will take over Johnson’s RB1 spot easily, but they could combine to take away some snaps over time.
Especially with Houston’s lack of directional focus, Johnson isn’t guaranteed ample opportunities. Usually, when a team is rebuilding, they typically try to get their younger players involved more over the veterans. In Houston’s case, they have four veteran RBs in Johnson (29), Lindsay (26), Ingram (31), and Burkhead (30), but obviously, Lindsay is much younger than the other three. Who knows what the team will do, but don’t expect Johnson’s numbers to be consistent this season.
Johnson’s 2021 Prediction
Rushing: 135 carries, 567 yards, 5 touchdowns
Receiving: 34 receptions, 313 yards, 2 touchdowns
Titans
Stock Up – Anthony Firkser
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2018 | TEN | 12 | 19 | 225 | 11.8 | 1 |
| 2019 | TEN | 15 | 14 | 204 | 14.6 | 1 |
| 2020 | TEN | 16 | 39 | 387 | 9.9 | 1 |
Firkser has quietly become a breakout candidate at the TE position this year. Jonnu Smith left for New England in the offseason, and Firkser has already proven that he can produce at the pro level. If you take a look at the chart above, you can see that he has yet to fall short of 200 receiving yards, and he has scored in each of his three seasons in the league as a back-up. He should mold into one of Ryan Tannehill’s top targets alongside Julio Jones and A.J. Brown.
Last season, Firkser finished as the TE26, and his teammate at the time, Smith, finished as the TE16 in PPR leagues. Together, they produced 223.9 PPR points, which is the most fantasy production from a TE tandem last season (Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett were a close second with 221.1 PPR points combined). Now that Smith is gone, Firkser easily takes over as the team’s TE1, and he should see plenty of opportunities. Don’t expect players like Geoff Swaim, Jared Pinkney, and Tommy Hudson to hold Firkser back this season.
During Tannehill’s career, he typically relies on his TEs a ton in the red zone. He connected with his TEs for 11 touchdowns last season and seven the season prior. Now that Smith is out of town, expect Firkser’s touchdown receptions to increase a decent amount. He’s already shown that he can produce good numbers, and now it’s time for him to produce GREAT numbers.
Firkser’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 49 receptions, 578 yards, 4 touchdowns
Stock Down – Josh Reynolds
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2017 | LAR | 16 | 11 | 104 | 9.5 | 1 |
| 2018 | LAR | 16 | 29 | 402 | 13.9 | 5 |
| 2019 | LAR | 16 | 21 | 326 | 15.5 | 1 |
| 2020 | LAR | 16 | 52 | 618 | 11.9 | 2 |
About two weeks ago, you could’ve convinced yourself that Reynolds was in a position to succeed in fantasy this season. He was coming into 2021 fresh off a career year in 2020. Reynolds finished with career highs in receptions and receiving yards. In PPR leagues, he finished as the WR62 playing behind both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. He was also the surest thing to a Corey Davis replacement. That is until Tennessee traded for Julio Jones, arguably one of the best players at his position today.
Now Reynolds likely serves as this team’s third or fourth receiving option, which is pretty much what he was for the Rams in 2020. He’s also in a bad position to produce decent fantasy numbers because Tannehill doesn’t rely on his third or fourth wide receiver options a ton. Specifically, outside of his TEs, Brown, and Davis, Adam Humphries found the most production last season as he hauled in 25 receptions for 228 yards and two touchdowns.
The combination of Brown, Davis, Smith, and Firkser made up for most of the receiving production last season. They accumulated 65.2 percent of the team’s receiving targets, 68.0 percent of the team’s receptions, 75.6 percent of the team’s receiving yards, and 75.8 percent of the team’s receiving touchdowns. This should tell you that Reynolds is on the fence of becoming the odd man out this season. Because Tennessee doesn’t have a proven backup TE, Reynolds could see decent opportunities. But he surely lost a ton of fantasy value once the team traded for Jones.
Reynold’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 45 receptions, 567 yards, 3 touchdowns
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