It’s officially start-up season! The buzz of the NFL Draft and free agency has worn off, rookie drafts are wrapping up, and dynasty managers are left chasing that sweet high. We’re all scraping for every bit of info we can from OTAs like we’re searching for a loose fry at the bottom of the bag. Welcome to The Void. The space between OTAs and Mini-Camps where every fantasy junkie is trying to fill said void anyway we can. Most of us are now obsessively trading or telling ourselves “just one more startup,” followed by more obsessive trading. Depending on what boat you’re in, let’s look at those cheap sleepers you can either buy low on the league trade block or take a flier during a startup so you can spend that high draft stock elsewhere using Sleeper’s ADP data, and scouting reports from NFL.com.
Van Jefferson (WR-LAR)
Current Sleeper SF/PPR ADP: Pick 227.9 – Round 19
Pros: Elite route runner, Productive offense, QB upgrade
Cons: Waits for the ball and settles for body catches, Lack of production
2021 Projections: 60/650/5
Jefferson is on a few analysts’ radars, but his current ADP says the fantasy community hasn’t caught on yet. Recency bias has us forgetting that the Rams spent a second-round pick in 2020. Yes, I know they drafted Tutu Atwell in the second round this year, but hear me out. Jefferson started his college career in 2016 at Ole Miss where he competed for targets in the stacked offense that produced the likes of D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Evan Engram, and now Elijah Moore. Yes, he transferred out of the program, but the fact that he was recruited along with that crop of talent is telling.
After two modest years at Florida (84 Catches, 1,160 yards, 12 TDs) he finds himself buried on the depth chart with the Rams. So why invest? Jefferson’s draft evaluation had him as a sure-handed chain mover with superb route running and the versatility to play in the slot or the outside. Sound like somebody else? I’d say, Robert Woods. Guess who could be a cap casualty next season on the loaded Rams offense? I’d say Robert Woods again. Furthermore, Josh Reynolds packed his bags to be a WR3 for the Titans. Jefferson is a far superior player and we should expect to see plenty enough three-wide receiver sets which translates to more opportunity. The Rams are in cap hell and will have to make serious decisions soon. Drafting Tutu Atwell seems more like a desperate dart throw to brace for the future than anything against Jefferson. All this and his current price make him the perfect draft and stash candidate or a trade add-on for a rebuild.
Anthony Firkser (TE-TEN)
Current Sleeper SF/PPR ADP: Pick 220.4 – Round 18
Pros: Excellent route runner, Sure hands, Opportunity
Cons: Poor blocking, New system
2021 Projections: 50/600/6
The ever-so-reliable fantasy darling Julio Jones has made his way out of Atlanta and into Tennessee. What does this mean for Firkser? Absolutely nothing. The fantasy community has already washed their hands of the still 26-year-old which makes zero sense. Are our memories that short? This passing offense just produced fantasy relevance for A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith. Davis is now with the Jets during a rebuild, and Jonnu Smith is hoping to “Make the Pats Great Again” in New England. That’s 165 targets up for grabs. Todd Downing’s been promoted to play-caller in Nashville, and we don’t know exactly how this offense will look. But seeing as he comes from the same coaching tree as Arthur Smith and Matt LeFleur, we can assume that they’re gonna operate through the run and play action. Run/play-action means high snap shares for tight ends. This may not translate into that much more production, but the upside is there for Firkser to be a perfect TE2 to snag for cheap.
Gerald Everett (TE-SEA)
Current Sleeper SF/PPR ADP: Pick 221.8 – Round 18
Pros: Athletic, Playmaker after catch, Poor man’s Evan Engram
Cons: Lazy route runner, Focus, Drops, Tries to make plays before he’s completed the catch, Poor man’s Evan Engram (yes, this is a pro and a con)
2021 Projections: 75/750/6
I know, I know, we’ve been burned by Everett two seasons in a row. But did we get burned by Everett, or by Higbee and Goff? I don’t need to tell you the bad things about Goff, but I will anyway. Fantasy owners get caught up in stats and quickly blame the player and never consider the player’s situation. Goff and Everett play two different positions but are the perfect example of this phenomenon. Goff had nothing but support and opportunity in LA yet continually underperformed.
Everett was on the reciprocal end of that scenario. With so many mouths to feed and Goff underperforming, he still managed to put up solid performances when given the opportunity. Now, he finds himself in Seattle where they would love to keep their QB happy. Lockett and Metcalf can handle the outside, and that leaves the middle of the field wide open for Everett to do what he does best. Let’s not forget the tight end position is wide open in Seattle. Jake Hollister finds himself in Buffalo and Greg Olson is enjoying the family life for the 2021 season leaving 77 targets on the table. Do I need to give you any more info to show you the tremendous upside at his current value?
Russell Gage (WR-ATL)
Current Sleeper SF/PPR ADP: Pick 195.6 – Round 16
Pros: Competitor, Athletic
Cons: Concerning efficiency, Size
2021 Projections: 85/850/6
What if I told you that in 2020, a 25-year-old served as a team’s third receiving option, finished as the WR37, is now a starter, and is being taken as the 82nd receiver off the board? You’d ask me who it is, and why is he going so cheaply?! I’ve heard way too much Gage slander from pundits and fans alike and it’s time to stop. Julio Jones has moved on to Tennessee and the two biggest winners are easily Gage and Tannehill. Gage finished with a stat line of 72/786/4 with Julio playing half the season, and while in Dirk Koetter’s pedestrian offense. I know many want to freak out about how run-heavy new HC Arthur Smith’s offense has been, but Corey Davis just finished as the WR30 last season on the Titans while missing four games. Even with Kyle Pitts added to this offense, I’m buying as much of Gage at this price as I can.
Bryan Edwards (WR-LV)
Current Sleeper SF/PPR ADP: Pick 193.4 – Round 16
Pros: Athleticism, Size, Wins contested catches, Opportunity
Cons: Injuries, Sloppy route running
2021 Projections: 60/660/6
2020 was filled with disappointing injuries and Bryan Edwards was no exception. The Raiders’ receiver is oozing with potential due to that coveted blend of size and speed. With such little tape of him actually healthy, it’s almost like we get to evaluate a rookie who’s had an extended preseason. We can also look at his situation and see that the Raiders’ front office did next to nothing to add to their pass-catchers besides bringing on John Brown as Henry Ruggs insurance. Of course, Darren Waller is still there and will most likely dominate the target share, but we can’t forget that coaches want balance.
Do the Chiefs ignore Hill because they have Kelce? You already know the answer to that. So when they have a chance at having a Kelce, Hill, and peak Dez Bryant I’m sure they’ll be fine spreading the love. Yes, I’m making a bold comparison that either excites you or makes you cringe, but the traits are there and might be worth throwing out a few trade feelers to add some depth.
Nelson Agholor (WR-NE)
Current Sleeper SF/PPR ADP: Pick 170 Round 14
Pros: Speed, Route running, Experience, Opportunity
Cons: Consistency, Drops, New system
2021 Projections: 65/850/5
This is a pick that is both a few rounds more expensive and a little unsexy, but the upside shouldn’t be unnoticed. For starters, The Pats arguably overpaid him this offseason, so we should expect them to actually use him. And who else is going to play on the outside? Jakobi Meyers is still there and understands New England’s nuanced offense along with adding Kendrick Bourne, but Agholor has the most production and higher ceiling. Agholor quietly had one of the best seasons of his career last year (48/896/8) and nobody but Belichick seemed to notice. No, his numbers weren’t eye-popping. But they were enough to finish as the WR34 while being a number two option on the Raiders. If Agholor can grasp the Pats’ complicated offense, 50 catches, 800 yards, and 6+ TDs seem like a safe floor to project, so think about the ceiling you may get at this price.
Michael Carter (RB-NYJ)
Current Sleeper SF/PPR ADP: Pick 104.2 Round 8-9
Pros: Elusive, Great vision, Balance, Natural pass catcher, Opportunity
Cons: Size, Strength, Average breakaway speed, He’s still on the Jets
2021 Projections: 140/700/5 Rushing, 40/300/3 Receiving
I’m unsure if this even counts as a sleeper, I just love this player so much I’m going to tack him on the list anyway. I know some are already freaking out because he’s on the Jets, but forget what you know! The talent killer Adam Gase is gone, and now every Jets player is basically on sale. Carter gives us the perfect opportunity to examine the phrase “Scout the player, not the helmet.” Meaning look at the player for who they are, and not who they play for, or the team that surrounds them. We’re going to ignore that and do both.
First, let’s evaluate the player. Carter comes from a stacked UNC offense that also featured Javonte Williams and still produced back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Williams has the size and thump of the two, while Carter served as the slippery-smooth counterpart. The biggest knock on Carter’s game is the strength to run through arm tackles and move a pile, but I don’t think there is a more patient runner behind blockers. He’s his best once he hits the second level and can move in the open field. He’d be a perfect fit in an offense that can scheme open wide holes for him to work through. Which is a perfect segway to evaluate the helmet.
Robert Saleh is the new head coach and he made the smart decision to bring over Mike LaFleur from the Shanahan coaching tree. You know, that guy who schemes up offenses that make Raheem Mostert look like Chris Johnson. Sure Tevin Coleman is there. But we’ve seen this movie and both sequels. Spoiler alert: Coleman never makes it to the end. Ty Johnson is there too, but we can’t ignore that a new staff is around and he’s not their guy. But seeing as they spent a fourth-rounder on an RB during a rebuild, Carter could be. So go get him in the eighth round before he gets too expensive.
Sam Darnold (QB-CAR)
Current Sleeper SF/PPR ADP: Pick 100.6 Round 8
Pros: Strong arm, Can make every throw
Cons: Poor decision making, Doesn’t keep his eyes downfield under pressure
2021 Projections: 4,300/32/10
I promise this isn’t an Adam Gase hate account, but these things need to be said. Talent seems to flourish when Gase isn’t around to taint it. Remember when Tannehill was a bust? Fast forward a season or two and he’s the savior of the Titans franchise.
Darnold was a way better passing prospect out of college than Tannehill, and now he finds himself in an even better situation than Tannehill as well. Darnold is coming from a situation where his top two targets were Jamison Crowder and a disgruntled Le’Veon Bell with a paper-thin offensive line. Now in Carolina, he has CMC, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and rookie Terrace Marshall. I’d call that a massive upgrade.
We can’t ignore that Teddy B ran a fantasy-relevant offense across the board, and he’s allergic to throwing downfield. Now imagine Darnold’s arm strength with the support he has now? D.J. Moore might even catch touchdowns again! It’s hard to miss the upside of a QB with great physical tools moving to a competent offensive-minded coach who doesn’t breed toxicity. Don’t be afraid to wait till the eighth round on your QB2 in a Superflex when a 24-year-old is still there.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to find me @SportsJag, so we can talk way too passionately about football, and you can catch all future content.
