dynasty running backs

Moves to Make in a Dynasty Contender

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At this point during the season in dynasty leagues, it should be apparent to fantasy managers whether or not your team is a contender or if you should be positioning yourself for next season. There is a clear pattern developing and if you are in the middle of the pack, making one trade can push you into a contender immediately. I’ll be assessing a few moves you can make right now on players who could be cheap, in order to push you into the playoffs and through the rest of the season comfortably.

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Dynasty Sleeper of the Week: Mekhi Sargent

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I’ve got another deep sleeper for you, one who may still even be on waivers. However, even he is not, he should be easily acquirable at his current value. The dynasty community is always in search of affordable running backs. This one comes at little to no cost and finds himself in an intriguing situation.

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Backfield Breakdown: Reflections After Two Weeks of the NFL Season

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We are entering Week 3 of the NFL season, and so with two weeks of information, we are starting to see how the backfields of certain offenses are taking shape. This report looks at weighted opportunity (WOPP), as well as some other metrics to help you identify buys and sells for your running back room for Week 3 and beyond. I will revisit this article at several points of the season to help you get ready for a playoff push, and ultimately a run at the championship! What is WOPP? It is a metric that apportions value to a running back opportunity (either a carry or a target). Targets are worth approximately 2.74 times the value of a rush attempt in PPR scoring, and as such, they are more valuable. 

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2021 Dynasty Profile: Cordarrelle Patterson

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Eighth-year breakout, anyone? Color me intrigued. At 30 years of age, Cordarrelle Patterson is not exactly your spring chicken in regards to NFL experience. A surprise first-round draft pick by the Minnesota Vikings in 2013, Patterson attained recognition for his physical frame and athletic scores at the NFL Combine. Those with short memories may forget that the former Tennessee product entered the league boasting a 4.42/40-yard dash. At a hulking 6’2” and 227 lbs., Patterson harnessed the prototypical build to garner hope of a professional breakout. That presumption never came to fruition.

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J.K. Dobbins Injury Rapid Reaction

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We were so close to the regular season. So close. Most starters sat on the bench during week three of the preseason as it was treated much like preseason week four in past years, but for one team that chose to play their starters, the consequence was dire. Baltimore Ravens second-year running back J.K. Dobbins has suffered a torn ACL and will miss the 2021 season according to Adam Schefter.

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Rapid Reaction: Sony Michel to the L.A. Rams

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Sony coming to Los Angeles helps give him a path towards more work than he would have found in New England. He wasn’t even in my top 40 for running backs before this but now he becomes a late-round pick you must make. Why? Darrell Henderson suffered a hand injury in his last pre-season game and while most reports say he will be good to go, Sean McVay will be more likely to give him a breather during the season. The Rams are all in on this season. Even with the arrival of Xavier Jones onto the scene in LA, Sony is a proven commodity and to me, he becomes the RB2 in that room and should take some series from him.

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Searching for RB Deep Stashes

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In dynasty, one of the most under-appreciated assets is the bench stash running back. These cheap assets can climb up depth charts and become useful to either your starting lineup or for trade. These types of players can be acquired for a fourth-round rookie pick or less in most leagues but can return a second-rounder or more in trades if they become a starter. Even if it’s only for a couple of weeks. For example, last season I was able to trade Ryan Nall and a third-round rookie pick for a second-round rookie pick when he took over for David Montgomery. The hardest part is finding which players are the best bets to not only remain on a team but also climb a depth chart. This article will go over certain metrics you can look for when deciding between these late-round or free-agent RBs.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC North

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. The NFC North is the eighth and final divisional breakdown. Check out other breakdowns by clicking on each respective division (AFC North, NFC West, AFC West, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East) here at DFF. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Enjoy. 

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Joe Mixon: By the Numbers

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Volume is king in fantasy football. This could finally be the year where we see Mixon’s volume skyrocket. The Cincinnati Bengals are without their notorious touch-stealing threat, Giovani Bernard. This means all the third down work, all the goal line touches, and everything in between for Mixon. This is the first time he’ll have this opportunity in his career. From 2017 (Mixon’s rookie year) through 2019 (not including 2020 where he only played in six games), Mixon has averaged 290 receiving yards and 36 receptions on 45 targets per season. Meanwhile, in that span, Bernard averaged 280 receiving yards and 36 receptions on 50 targets per season. You take Bernard out of the equation and Mixon’s numbers essentially double. Mixon is easily looking at 300 total touches this season.

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Dynasty Debates: Derrick Henry Buy or Sell

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Derrick Henry is the starting running back for the Tennessee Titans, and he may be the most polarizing single player in fantasy football right now. The 27-year-old, sixth-year back out of Alabama is currently being valued by some as an elite fantasy running back, but many others are selling now projecting his market value to plummet due to his age. The Titans have Henry under contract through the 2023 season for approximately $12M per year. However, the Titans do have a potential out following the 2021 season where they would take on only a $6M dead cap hit that they may prorate over two seasons. The Titans had considerable offensive gains when they A) enabled Arthur Smith to call plays for the offensive unit, B) named Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback, and C) drafted A.J. Brown to become the new Alpha wide receiver.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC West

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With the injury bug attacking San Francisco as a team in recent seasons, the rookie RB could find opportunities sooner than later. Jeff Wilson has already been struck with bad luck this offseason with a torn meniscus. Raheem Mostert is penciled in as the team’s starter for now, and he has played in all 16 games once in his seven years in the league. San Francisco also brought in Wayne Gallman from free agency this offseason, an RB who has never played in all 16 games and only holds 14 career starts under his belt in four seasons. 

In comes the rookie out of Ohio State, Trey Sermon. He was drafted out of the third round in this year’s NFL Draft, and he may find a steady role in this offense. Although he isn’t known as an elite pass-catcher, it wouldn’t be surprising if he turned into one. Right now, there are the three other RBs that will battle with him for playing time, but if he could find a way to become a threat in the receiving game, there’s no doubt that he will take more snaps than both Gallman and Wilson.

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Rapid Reaction: Cam Akers’ Torn Achilles

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Cam Akers suffered a torn Achilles while training, a headline first reported by the NFL Network’s Tom Pelisasero. Akers was trending up in all fantasy football formats, going as a late second to early third-round draft pick in Superflex start-up leagues. He also was going as early as the first round in Redraft formats. This is a crushing loss, and we hope for a safe recovery for this promising young man. With an injury of this magnitude, we cannot dwell in our sadness, we must look for opportunities that this has created for us to gain advantages in our fantasy leagues for 2021.

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Robby Anderson

2021 Projections: Carolina Panthers

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The Panthers have typically been a run-heavy team in years past. This is due to them having Cam Newton and a revolving door at QB. Now that they have a stable passer in Darnold I think they will throw more often. In 2020 they had a pass to rush play ratio of 1.35 which is exactly league average. For 2021 I have them bumping up to a 1.41 ratio. As for their rush-to-pass touchdown ratio they have had a very low one of .85 in 2019 and .84 in 2020. Typically this sort of thing regresses to the league mean of 1.82, and I find it unlikely that we will see this low of a ratio again. So, for 2021 I am giving them a ratio of 1.25. Now let us look at what these trends do to the individual players.

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2021 Projections: Denver Broncos

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The wide receiver group for Denver also has a lot of ambiguity in itself too. Jerry Jeudy operated as the team’s top pass catcher in 2020 but Courtland Sutton was the lead dog in 2019. Who should we expect to be the alpha in 2021? I did my projections under the assumption the Jeudy would perform more so as the slot guy that may garner more targets but have lower yards per reception and touchdowns. While Sutton will be utilized as the mid to deep WR threat on the outside of the field and looked at more in the red zone. This means he can see fewer targets but achieve a similar yardage output and more touchdowns. My projections relay this well, and they both average within .5 fantasy points per game of each other. I think they will both be weekly mid-tier to low-tier WR2s so Sutton having an ADP of WR32 feels good and Jeudy having an ADP of WR41 feels awesome. I like them both at their ADP, but I do not like drafting two wide receivers from the same team in a typical redraft league. Therefore my recommended plan of action would be to pass on Sutton and draft Jeudy later. Jeudy also has a higher upside because he has the potential to see way more targets and produce more points in a more consistent way.

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2021 Projections: Cleveland Browns

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Baker Mayfield had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2019, but we got to see him bounce back with a good 2020 season where he threw for 3500 yards and 26 touchdowns. I have him projected to expand on this in 2021 and collect almost 4200 passing yards along with 29 touchdowns. Seems pretty reasonable to me. A small increase in throws per game and adding a 17th game certainly make up for that increase in pass yards. This leaves Baker averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game, resulting in a low QB2 ranking. Baker’s current redraft ADP is QB16, this is a tad high for me. I would feel much better about getting him at the QB20-24 range, I am fading him at his ADP and so should you. However, if he happens to fall a few spots I would gladly take him in that previously mentioned 20-24 range.

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Startup Strategies: Drafting to Reload, Not Rebuild

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Rookie drafts are wrapping up and startups are the only thing getting dynasty owners through the off-season. If you’re a true dynasty degenerate, at least set yourself up for success from the draft. We’re not going to just set ourselves up for success now, but build a sustainable roster for the future to create a true “dynasty.” You don’t have to go all-in on big-name vets, nor do you need to only draft players under 26. Mix a little of both strategically.

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dfs week 12

Chasing ‘Ships and Flipping Pieces: Part 2 – Franchise Value and Vision

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I specialize in the FFPC dynasty format, where there is a somewhat unique constraint that drives market action. You have to cut down to 16 players by the end of March, carrying just 20 in-season including a K and a DEF. That means that after the Super Bowl there is only about a month and a half to get deals done to get your roster trimmed down. Or you can risk cutting guys that have a lot of value. Most owners try to avoid that. This makes that particular trading period an absolute boon of market activity. There are lots of “one man’s junk is another man’s treasure” kind of deals. And there are lots of premiums paid for studs and there are lots of “cashing out dollars for three quarters” type of deals. 

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Fourth Year: Budget “Buy-Now”

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The most expensive option on this list but a clear example of the dynasty community’s “what have you done for me lately” mindset. Sutton is a player that can be bought for a late first or early second who has already produced multiple fantasy-relevant seasons, including a 72/1,112/6 season in 2019. Going into his age 26 season this year, he is a player that offers a much safer floor than others going in that ADP range having already proven he can do it with a rookie QB in Drew Lock. Sutton offers genuine WR1 upside. It would be remiss to not mention the fact that this offense has more targets than it did in 2019 now boasting Noah Fant, Jerry Jeudy, & Javonte Williams, but for a QB like Lock that is fighting for his job, he will be looking to a guy like Sutton who has performed for him before.

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Why I’m Not Yet On The Cam Akers Hype Train

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Since the last four games of the regular season and playoffs, the Cam Akers hype train has started to gain velocity. That train is now going too fast, it has exceeded the speed limit, and he will soon be charged for speeding. Akers is now being drafted as the 19th pick in Dynasty Startups (RB8) according to Sleeper’s ADP and FantasyPros consensus, ahead of guys like Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson, and D’Andre Swift, among others. I’m not thrashing Cam Akers but this price is definitely a market overreaction.

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