dynasty running backs

Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: AFC West

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. This week’s coverage will focus on the AFC West. You can find breakdowns on the AFC East, the NFC East, the AFC South, and the NFC South divisions here at DFF as well. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Let’s get started. 

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2021 Buy Low Dynasty Sleepers

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It’s officially start-up season! The buzz of the NFL Draft and free agency has worn off, rookie drafts are wrapping up, and dynasty managers are left chasing that sweet high. We’re all scraping for every bit of info we can from OTAs like we’re searching for a loose fry at the bottom of the bag. Welcome to The Void. The space between OTAs and Mini-Camps where every fantasy junkie is trying to fill said void anyway we can. Most of us are now obsessively trading or telling ourselves “just one more startup,” followed by more obsessive trading. Depending on what boat you’re in, let’s look at those cheap sleepers you can either buy low on the league trade block or take a flier during a startup so you can spend that high draft stock elsewhere using Sleeper’s ADP data, and scouting reports from NFL.com.

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Antonio Gibson: Is the Sky the Limit or is the Limit the Sky?

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Would you believe it if I told you that Antonio Gibson, who played mostly wide receiver (WR) in college, tallied 16.2 carries and targets per game in the first 11 games of his pro football career at running back (RB)? After blowing up in Week 12 for 20/115/3, along with five receptions on seven targets, he was hurt early in the next game and missed two weeks. He then came back and received a large share of the workload again, but he was hobbled a bit by the injury and indeed it has lingered into the offseason, somewhat unexpectedly. What are his prospects for 2021, and how do they compare to the rest of the 2020 RB class and other similar ranked veteran RBs?

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2021 Projections: Buffalo Bills

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The Buffalo RB group is interesting. I gave Zack Moss more rushing work than Devin Singletary and gave Singletary more receiving work than Moss. Which matches the trend set when both were active in 2020. Unfortunately, this creates two RBs that I do not want. At first, I found it surprising that Singletary came out with more points than Moss because I thought Moss’s TD upside would trump the receiving upside. However, Singletary uses that receiving upside to achieve four receiving touchdowns. Both of these running backs ended up with seven total touchdowns, but Singletary had 30 more receptions which give him the point advantage. These RBs may not seem desirable, but at their respective ADPs, I could see myself owning some Singletary. He is currently being drafted after Zach Moss, so I would take advantage of this by fading Moss and scooping Singletary late.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: AFC South

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. This week’s coverage is all about the AFC South. This is the third division breakdown, and you can find the AFC East here and the NFC East here. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Let’s dive right in. 

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2021 Projections: Kansas City Chiefs

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Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a player that was hyped to Mars in the last off-season. I had been calling him a post-hype buy candidate all off-season so I was excited to see what my projections would have in store for him. In 2020 CEH had 45% of the team’s carries and that was with him missing three full games. So, in 2021 I have him projected for 50% of the team’s carries. I also gave him a 50% share of the rush TDs and a 10% target share. All of these comes together to make a 1,300 yard and 13 total TD season. One of CEH’s biggest issues last season was finding the endzone, I have him correcting this in a big way and seeing an elite TD floor. He is the main RB in the league’s most consistent offense. He should see a lot of TD opportunities this season.

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2021 Projections: LA Chargers

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In this series, I am diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.

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Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Texans

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While the Texans may look like a terrible franchise that could be without Deshaun Watson this season, there’s still value to be found in their backfield. The Texans signed Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay to one-year contracts adding to David Johnson and a number of backs that have remained irrelevant. The average age of the Texans backfield by the start of next season is 26.8, which is basically geriatric for the NFL.

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Dynasty Sleepers 2021: RB Edition

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The days of the traditional sleeper are quickly fading with a community full of hard-working analysts and tape grinders who nail down even the least known players before most of the NFL scouts can get their eyes on them. Ok, that might be a bit of an exaggeration (It’s not!) but the dynasty market is saturated with content. Therefore, most players will be given some sort of spotlight and as a result, the entire population of dynasty managers is more knowledgeable as a whole making “sleepers” much more difficult to discover and take advantage of.

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Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Jaguars

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James Robinson managers were shocked (maybe) in the draft when the Jaguars selected Travis Etienne in the first round with the 25th overall pick. This wasn’t out of the question going in, as the Jags had a lot of draft capital to throw around, but it was a bit surprising to me. James Robinson was more than serviceable in 2020, he was good. They also added veteran depth to the backfield during free agency in the form of Carlos Hyde.

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2020 Rookie RBs Revisited

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Each year in dynasty formats a new set of rookies come in that take your attention away from the veterans and last year’s class. In this article, I am going to break down some of the rookie RBs from the 2020 class and give you some insight on what’s to expect this season and beyond. The 2020 Rookie RBs are like no other, and with the value and hype that each possesses, these backs will likely continue to be great dynasty assets.

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Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Falcons

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The only Falcon with meaningful rushing numbers that returns to the team is Matt Ryan. Todd Gurley and Ito Smith are both free agents, and Brian Hill is a Titan. The Falcons return Tony Brooks-James and Qadree Ollison, but neither one has contributed much to the franchise at this point in their careers. The biggest name in the Falcons backfield is Mike Davis, who they signed to a two-year $5,500,000 contract this past offseason. The team also signed Cordarrelle Patterson, a converted wide receiver who saw 64 carries with the Bears last season. Not to be lost in the fray, are UDFAs Javian Hawkins and Caleb Huntley.

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dfs week 14

Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Dolphins

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Miami is similar to the 49ers in that they give one guy a ton of work, it’s just sometimes difficult to be sure who that guy is going to be. In every game he played, Gaskin saw more than 60% of the snaps. He even saw 70% or more in five games, which was half of his games played. When Gaskin was out, Ahmed stepped in and received 46%, 76%, 66%, and 60%. They’re going to give the ball to primarily one guy, and right now that one guy looks like Myles Gaskin.

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Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Broncos

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The Broncos signed Melvin Gordon to a two-year $16 million contract last offseason. This offseason they originally placed a restricted free agent tender on Phillip Lindsay, before allowing him to walk in free agency. To replace Lindsay, they brought in Mike Boone on a two-year deal worth $3,850,000 and drafted Javonte Williams with the 35th pick in the draft. Oh yeah, Royce Freeman is still around somewhere too.

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Fantasy Outlook: Cardinals Running Backs

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Last week, the Arizona Cardinals signed James Conner to a one-year deal worth $1.75M fully guaranteed. After playing his first four seasons in the league with Pittsburgh, he will now join a backfield that includes: Chase Edmonds, Jonathan Ward, and Eno Benjamin. Below, I will be digging deeper into Conner’s and Edmonds’ fantasy outlooks for the 2021 season. I will also explain why the Cardinals should look into drafting a running back in this year’s draft.

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Joe Mixon: 2021 Dynasty Profile

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Joe Mixon played college football at the University of Oklahoma from 2014-2016. As a redshirt sophomore, Mixon racked up over 1,800 yards from scrimmage and scored 15 TDs. After his strong 2016 season, Mixon declared for the 2017 NFL Draft. During the pre-draft process, he measured in at 6’ 1”, 226 lbs. and registered an impressive 92nd-percentile speed score with his 4.50 40-yard dash. Under different circumstances, Mixon could’ve easily been a first-round pick. Due to character concerns and an incredible RB class that included Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Christian McCaffrey, Mixon slipped into the second round where he was selected by the Cincinnati Bengals.

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Leonard Fournette Returns To Tampa Bay

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Leonard Fournette re-signed with the Buccaneers on a one-year deal worth $3.25M. The contract also includes incentives that would push it up to $4M. Fournette will now re-join Ronald Jones Jr. in one of the best backfields in the league. Last offseason, Fournette was released from the Jacksonville Jaguars. He then quickly signed with Tampa Bay on a one-year deal worth $2M. The Buccaneers planned for Fournette to serve as Jones Jr.’s back-up, something Fournette had never done in his three seasons in the league. Jones Jr. battled injuries throughout the season, and Fournette had plenty of opportunities to succeed. 

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Kenneth Gainwell is an Onion

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Kenneth Gainwell was the “onion” in Memphis’s offense; he served as their leading rusher and lined up in many different alignments. At his 2021 Pro Day, Gainwell measured in at 5’8” and 201 lbs. He ran a 4.47-second 40-yard dash, benched 225 lbs. 21 times, executed a 35” vertical jump, and ran a 4.46-second short shuttle. After his performance, Gainwell had some kind words to say about himself: “My skill set is very, very different. I can play between the tackles, I can play outside the tackles, I can line up at the slot. So my position is very, very different than these other running backs in the draft.”

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Bears Running Backs: 2021 Fantasy Outlook

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Earlier this week, the Chicago Bears signed Damien Williams to a one-year contract, bolstering their running back room. Williams was cut from the Kansas City Chiefs after opting out of last season. This addition should affect both David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen’s fantasy outlook for the upcoming NFL season. Let’s take a look at each player’s fantasy value in 2021.

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Mike Davis: Elusive or Illusion?

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Mike Davis was nothing short of exceptional in 2021 completing the year with 642 yards on 165 rushing attempts along with securing 59 of 70 targets for 373 yards and eight total touchdowns. He showed great contact balance and elusiveness all year and proved his worth and upside as a borderline elite pass-catcher. The 28-year-old career backup finished last season as the fantasy RB11 in PPR formats with the third-highest catch rate among running backs (84%) and the second-most games with five or more receptions among running backs (7).

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