If Only They Were Just Kidding
We were so close to the regular season. So close. Most starters sat on the bench during week three of the preseason as it was treated much like preseason week four in past years, but for one team that chose to play their starters, the consequence was dire. Baltimore Ravens second-year running back J.K. Dobbins has suffered a torn ACL and will miss the 2021 season according to Adam Schefter:
This is a devastating injury for not only impacted fantasy managers and Ravens fans but fans of football in general. Dobbins was expected to take on a lead-back role this year after the departure of Mark Ingram and had shown star potential as a committee member his rookie year.
REDRAFT/BESTBALL IMPACT
There’s no good way of looking at this for Redraft and BestBall leagues. Dobbins, who was both DFF’s RB17 and my RB17. Please pour one out as you remove Dobbins from any draft board for the 2021 season.
Taking a moment here to wish J.K. Dobbins a speedy recovery before moving onto the next man up.
Welp, it’s late August and where I’m from on the east coast, that means school is almost in session. It’s about time we hop onto the Gus “Bus” Edwards so we can head into the season together. Edwards has been around the league since 2018 and has a career 5.2 yards per carry average over 414 regular-season attempts. DFF’s own @ChrisMiles1017 wrote team by team projections this offseason and I’ll be manipulating his projections to see the potential for Gus Edwards this year (see his Ravens projections HERE).
The Ravens have been an RBBC, but one where the QB plays a heavy role as you can see above with Lamar Jackson being projected to have the second-most rush attempts on the team. At the moment there are two noteworthy running backs behind Edwards on the depth chart: Justice Hill and rookie Ty’Son Williams. Hill has been nursing an ankle injury the past two weeks and only has a total of 70 rushing attempts in his two-year career, and only had 12 attempts in 2020 compared to Edwards’ 144 which shows a clear drop in trust by the organization. Williams, on the other hand, is a rookie wild card and bruiser coming in at 6’0 ft 220lbs out of South Carolina. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Ravens brought in another running back to strengthen their depth so I am not excited about Hill or Williams’s prospects for 2021.
Edwards should see a huge uptick in carries this season and is the main beneficiary. I could easily see his attempts increase from the projected 147 to around 240, although I expect the efficiency to drop off with the increase in carries. If we project 240 carries at a reasonable 4.8 ypc and increase his touchdowns from four to 10, that pushes his fantasy total to around 175.2 from rushing only. Edwards has never been a pass-catcher for the Ravens, having only 18 catches in three years. Meanwhile, Dobbins had 18 catches last year in a committee, and @ChrisMiles1017 projected Dobbins to catch 30 passes for 257 yards and two touchdowns. I don’t see Edwards being used as much in the passing game despite being the only option as of right now. I do see them either bringing in someone else to help play that role or getting creative with their other receiving weapons. If we see Edwards match Dobbins receiving numbers from last year, that will add 18 catches for 120 yards to his stats, and I’ll even throw in one touchdown since he should be on the field a ton. That brings his fantasy total to roughly 211.2 points, good enough to finish as RB11 in 2020, RB18 in 2019, and RB14 in 2018.
Mid RB2 is my projection for Edwards. He is moving up my board from RB44, 142 overall, to my RB19, 42 overall.
DYNASTY IMPACT
For Dynasty leagues, there are two big decisions to be made now:
1) Sell Gus Edwards high?
2) Buy J.K. Dobbins low?
Gus Edwards’ value immediately skyrockets as a viable option for contending teams who look to add running back depth. Before any rankings updates, Edwards was DFF’s RB37 in SFTEP and 153 overall. James Robinson moved up to 85 overall after the Etienne injury and I expect Edwards to move to that same area which means contending teams paying a late 22 first-round pick for him is a slight overpay, however, that’s probably what it will take to get a deal done.
Dobbins is only 22 years old and should recover over the next 12 months, however, I am no doctor. DFF’s resident PT Zach Pavlichek (@ZachPav42) should be coming out with a more in-depth article on the ramifications of a torn ACL later this week. The Ravens have a solid offensive core lined up for the next few years so if you’re a team that’s rebuilding and can trade for the stud out of the Ohio State University, I would highly consider it. If you own a projected mid 22 first, I would trade that away for Dobbins at the most right now, but hopefully, the asking price is lower as the injury news is still fresh. Dobbins has already proved his talent on the field, so reach out to owners for an asking price and keep an eye out for Zach’s article this week so you can feel comfortable about trading away future pieces.
What do you think of the J.K. Dobbins injury? Are you looking to acquire the Gus Bus? Hit me up @DFF_JoeMem on Twitter to let me know! And be sure to sign up for the DFF monthly subscription so you can have access to my Redraft Rankings and be one step ahead of the competition!
