Backfield Breakdown: Reflections After Two Weeks of the NFL Season

We are entering Week 3 of the NFL season, and so with two weeks of information, we are starting to see how the backfields of certain offenses are taking shape. 

This report looks at weighted opportunity (WOPP), as well as some other metrics to help you identify buys and sells for your running back room for Week 3 and beyond. I will revisit this article at several points of the season to help you get ready for a playoff push, and ultimately a run at the championship!

What is WOPP? It is a metric that apportions value to a running back opportunity (either a carry or a target). Targets are worth approximately 2.74 times the value of a rush attempt in PPR scoring, and as such, they are more valuable. 

Take Najee Harris for example – he leads all running backs with an opportunity share of 87.2%, but because he has yet to be heavily featured in the passing game, he ranks just 16th on a WOPP per game basis (13.9). On the other hand, D’Andre Swift’s opportunity share is just 53%, but he ranks fifth with a WOPP per game of (18.23). Going beyond snap count can help us identify value players at a position of scarcity in fantasy football. 

There are very few ‘bell-cow’ running backs left in football with just five players having a total opportunity share greater than 80%:

• Najee Harris
• Joe Mixon
• Derrick Henry
• Christian McCaffrey
• Dalvin Cook

Of these, only CMC, Henry, and Dalvin Cook have a WOPP per game greater than 20. That leaves plenty of backfields that should be viewed as timeshares or committees. I’ve picked out five backfields to take a closer look at and identify the back you should be trying to get on your roster. 

Atlanta Falcons

In the past few days, there has been a resurgence of interest in Cordarrelle Patterson as a viable fantasy player due to his big Week 2 performance. The reality is that Mike Davis is significantly ahead of him in snaps and WOPP and you shouldn’t expect a two-touchdown performance every week. The Falcons are 13th in ESPN’s run block win rate and draw a matchup in Week 3 against the Giants who rank 30th in rush defense DVOA per Football Outsiders before drawing Washington in Week 4 and the Jets in Week 5 who rank 21st and 25th, respectively. 

The Falcons are dead last in offensive rush DVOA, but their rush win rate and easier schedule moving forward should somewhat ease those offensive woes. It feels gross to buy players on seemingly bad offenses, but I believe in Arthur Smith and believe that better days are ahead for Atlanta (at least offensively). 

If you have a roster that has a chance to compete in 2021, Mike Davis should be on your shopping list. Likewise, if you can get anything in return for Patterson or use him to get a larger deal done, you should feel fine about selling him. Just don’t tell Ian Hartitz I said so. 

Denver Broncos

It’s only a matter of time before Williams takes over this backfield, and that could start with a blowout win over the Jets in Week 3. Melvin Gordon has more than double the fantasy points of Williams through two weeks, but their WOPP indicates that should be much closer. The Broncos traded up to draft Williams at the start of the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft, and I expect them to get him more involved as the season progresses. 

Teddy Bridgewater has this offense firing (fourth in DVOA), so make sure you are early on trading away Gordon and trading for Williams who figures to get plenty of carries as teams struggle to score on Denver’s top 10 defense. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

After Week 1, there was some concern that Carlos Hyde could be a thorn in the side of James Robinson owners everywhere. More likely, he was Urban Meyer’s Week 1 Ohio State-shaped binky as their usage appears to be trending in favor of Robinson, who has also dominated targets. Jacksonville is a bottom three team in football, and whilst that will limit Robinson’s touchdown upside, the team should trail a lot and he should be a strong flex play with RB2 upside every week. After all, this team earned the first overall pick last year and Robinson was still able to finish as the RB6 on a PPG basis. 

This offense should improve as Trevor Lawrence grows into his potential, and through two weeks, Jacksonville has done a good job trying to protect him ranking 11th in ESPN pass block win rate and giving up just two sacks. 

Hyde is droppable in all formats, but Robinson should be a trade target for your stronger rosters – especially if he is on a team that has started 0-2. 

Las Vegas Raiders

I know it seems like I have a personal vendetta against Josh Jacobs. I promise you that I don’t, but I just can’t get on board with him ever being a top fantasy running back on this Raiders offense until he is used in the passing game. We have no evidence to suggest that will ever happen. 

Jacobs has only played one game this season and scored two touchdowns, but you certainly can’t rely on that on any given week – no matter how well Derek Carr is playing. 

The reality is that the Raiders are unable to run the football. They rank 32nd in run block win rate and 31st in rush DVOA and through the first two weeks are tied for the second-highest pass rate on first and second downs (68%). 

Jacobs will have some useful games this year, but they will only come when the Raiders are leading and able to run the football. If you have somebody in your league who still believes, you should trade him for fair value as soon as possible. 

On the other hand, Drake carries value in PPR leagues for his involvement in the passing game. For now, it looks like the Raiders will pass the ball regardless of the game situation, but I do not expect their defense to be strong all year long. They already dropped seven places to 16th in defensive DVOA from Week 1 to Week 2 and face the eighth-hardest schedule moving forward based on Vegas win totals (per Sharp Football Stats). With that comes more potential shootouts, which is good for Kenyan Drake who ranks seventh out of all running backs in yards per route run and 16th in target share (minimum five routes).

Washington Football Team

Gibson and McKissic have scored the same number of fantasy points through two weeks, courtesy of McKissic’s excellent two-minute drill against the Giants on Thursday Night Football but it’s Gibson who is commanding the lion’s share of snaps and WOPP. 

If you have Gibson on your roster, don’t panic. The talent is there for everyone to see but as long as McKissic is on the roster he may be a weekly cap to Gibson’s ceiling. He will still be a strong RB2 but his path to true bell-cow usage will be blocked. If you roster McKissic, you should see what you can get in return for him off the back of his huge box score in Week 2 – especially if you have plenty of depth at running back on a middling to rebuilding roster. 

It’s also worth sending some opening offers to Gibson owners, as Washington ranks first in ESPN’s run block win rate (80%). His strong run game usage, behind a strong line, will ensure he remains a solid fantasy option especially since he is still used in the passing game as well. Both players have seven targets, and Gibson has run one more route through two games. 

Thanks for taking the time to read this article! Be sure to follow me on Twitter @FF_DownUnder and feel free to ask me any trade questions on any of the running backs featured in this article. 

All usage stats are courtesy of Dave Wright – @ff_spaceman. Give him a follow!