Dead to Me: Marlon Mack

I’ve loved the “Dead to Me” series of articles. It’s provided an excellent way to create redraft content throughout the offseason and take a closer look at the week-to-week effectiveness of one or two players at a time. By going in-depth and zooming in, we can discover how these players have been hurting your fantasy redraft teams for multiple years. After the 2020 NFL Draft, there are a bunch of new players that are now dead to me in redraft. Even though this is low-hanging fruit, I have to begin with Marlon Mack.

Career Snapshot

Rushing

Receiving

2017 – The Beginning

The Colts drafted Mack with the 143rd overall pick in the fourth round of the 2017 NFL Draft. Mack joined a depth chart that included incumbent starter Frank Gore and backup Robert Turbin. Mack and Turbin would compete for the backup or change-of-pace role behind Gore. Additionally, Mack had pass-catching skills coming into the NFL and was thought to be a third-down back or at least to have a third-down skillset.

Unfortunately for Mack, the 2017 season got off to a horrible start for the Colts. Starting quarterback Andrew Luck was unable to recover from his shoulder injury in time for the regular season. Eventually, he went on injured reserve and never played a game for the Colts that season. After Luck went down, replacement starter Jacoby Brissett stepped in, but the offense was not the same.

The Colts went 4-12 in 2017. Brissett only threw 469 passes, which led to a run-focused attack. Gore took a whopping 261 carries but converted those into only 961 yards and three touchdowns. Mack immediately pushed Turbin aside for the backup role and garnered 93 carries for 358 yards and three touchdowns. Mack also caught 21 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown.

However, it was slightly disappointing to see that the Colts continued to use Gore in a workhorse role even late in a lost season. Mack never had more than 11 carries in any game and had single-digit carries in 14 of 16 games. Therefore, Mack’s future with the team wasn’t clear after 2017.

2018 – The Breakout

Going into 2018, the Colts moved on from Gore and completely phased out Turbin, leaving Mack as the only relevant veteran on the team. They drafted Nyheim Hines in the fourth round and Jordan Wilkins in the fifth round to compete with Mack for touches at running back. Hines came in as a pass-catching specialist, while Wilkins brought a more balanced skillset. Additionally, Luck returned to the team for 2018, providing a massive boost to the Colts’ offense.

Unfortunately for Mack, his 2018 season got off to a rough start. He missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury, allowing Wilkins to lead the backfield. However, Wilkins performed poorly, leading to Colts to turn back to Mack in Week 2. Mack looked terrible in Week 2 and then re-aggravated his hamstring injury and added a foot injury, forcing him out until Week 6.

By Week 6, Mack was fully healthy and ready to resume his full-time role as the Colts’ early-down back. From that point forward, Mack flourished. He averaged 15.8 PPR points per game, 16th among running backs in that period, and was a true workhorse on the ground, with 185 carries for 874 yards and seven touchdowns. He averaged 16.8 carries per game and had the fifth-most carries in the NFL during those weeks. 

Mack’s main weakness was his lack of usage in the passing game. Even during his period as the workhorse, Mack totaled only 16 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown in those 11 games. The Colts decided to use Hines as their pure-third down back, giving him 81 targets for the season, which he turned into 63 receptions. Also, even though Wilkins had only 60 carries compared to Mack’s 195, he caught only one fewer reception on the season. Without passing game work, Mack still had a limited upside in PPR formats, although he was a solid RB2 when healthy.

2019 – A Repeat Performance

In 2019, the Colts brought back the same backfield from 2018, consisting of Mack, Hines, and Wilkins. Throughout the offseason, the Colts’ beat writers discussed that the team planned to use Mack more in the passing game. Mack had been used there more in 2017 but fell off in 2018 in favor of Hines. If Mack were a passing-game threat, it would further confuse opposing defenses and allow the offense to improve on their stellar 2018 output. 

However, once again, the Colts lost Luck before the season, this time for good due to his retirement. After losing Luck, Brissett stepped in once again. As in 2017, the Colts leaned heavily on the run. They ran the ball 471 times compared to only 513 passing attempts. They ranked fifth in rushing attempts and 24th in passing attempts. Brissett was ineffective throughout the season, tanking the entire offense.

Because of the change in offensive philosophy, we will never know if Mack would have seen more passing game work if Luck had remained the starter. Instead, Mack saw even fewer targets, with only 17 all season. He converted those into 14 receptions for 82 yards, but he was mostly a non-factor as a receiver. Even Hines suffered, going down from 81 targets to 58 and from 63 receptions to 44. Whatever the reason, the receiving work wasn’t there for Mack in 2019.

Even though Mack didn’t do anything as a receiver, he still shined on the ground. He managed to stay healthy most of the season, only missing two games due to a broken hand. In the 14 games he played, he carried the ball 247 times for 1091 yards and eight touchdowns. He averaged 17.6 carries per game, ninth among all running backs. Unfortunately, due to his lack of passing-game usage, he still was only a low-end RB2 in PPR formats. 

2020 – Graveyard

By the 2020 offseason, Mack had so far had a very successful career. He was still a young player, having turned just 24 years old in March. Even though the Colts seemed to have accepted that he would never be a three-down back, he made a nice pairing with Nyheim Hines. Mack and Hines complemented each other perfectly, and both are young players who’d found early success in the NFL After the Colts replaced Brissett with Philip Rivers in free agency, the offense’s outlook improved. I, therefore, expected Mack to remain a mid to low-end RB2 for 2020. The Colts had even potentially been discussing a contract extension with Mack, as his contract expires after 2020.

Unfortunately, any potential optimism for Mack came crashing down in an instant. The Colts not only drafted but traded up, to select running back Jonathan Taylor with the 41st overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Taylor was an absolute workhorse at Wisconsin and was my top rookie running back in this loaded draft class.

While Mack has been a fine player, his talent doesn’t compare to Taylor’s. Since the Colts felt it was necessary to trade up in the second round for a running back, that demonstrates a commitment to Taylor and shows that they thought they needed a new running back. I believe that Taylor will immediately shove Mack aside and will be the Colts’ early-down workhorse from Week 1. 

Therefore, Mack is only a handcuff in 2020 redraft formats, as insurance in case Taylor gets injured. However, Taylor averaged 308 carries per season at Wisconsin and never missed a game in three seasons. While it’s sad to say it, Mack is dead, at least for 2020. Even in the future, I find it hard to believe that Mack will ever regain a lead role in a backfield. Two-down grinders aren’t in high demand in the NFL, and they don’t seem to pay free-agent running backs. It’s rare to see a fantasy player’s value evaporate in an instant, but that’s what happened to Mack.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

Previous Dead to Me Articles: Dead to Me: Redraft, Dead to Me: Aaron Rodgers, Dead to Me: Sony Michel, Dead to Me: Tevin Coleman