Author name: Chris Miles

Staff Writer | @DFF_Dynasty #DFFArmy.

2022 Projections: Buffalo Bills

Dynasty / By /

First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Buffalo Bills’ fantasy-relevant players. 

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2022 Projections: Baltimore Ravens

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When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Oh yeah, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman can both easily eclipse 1000 yards while J.K. Dobbins is an RB1 and Gus Edwards is a solid flex play.” But, there may just not be room for that kind of production. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea. 

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2022 Projections: Atlanta Falcons

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I do not like the Falcons’ offense for fantasy, they will play slow, they will not score many touchdowns, and they will not pass the ball much. The only asset worth spending a high pick on is Kyle Pitts. I could see myself owning some Patterson, Allgeier, and Mariota though as I think they will be fairly cheap options. I do think London may be over-drafted though, given the recent rookie WR production and not thinking about how inept this offense may be. I have Mariota as a mid to high QB2, Patterson as a high RB3, Allgeier as a low RB4, London as a mid WR3, Edwards and Olamide are not on my board, and Pitts as a mid to high TE1. Hopefully, this offense is good and passes a lot in 2022 but I would not bet on it.

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2022 Projections: Arizona Cardinals

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For the Cardinals I have their QB, Kyler Murray Projected to be an elite fantasy asset, as he normally is. 4,400 yards, 36 total TDs, and 500 rush yards set him up to drop 24.6 fantasy points per game and help dominate your opponents. I have Conner taking a large majority of the carries and earning 280 total touches. The backs behind him are not proven NFL players so I have them getting about 80 carries each which left a ton for Conner. Keaontay Ingram also is not much of a pass catcher so I could see Conner getting some decent work there but I would not be surprised if he lost some of this to Rondale Moore. Let’s not forget, that DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for six games by the NFL. So while his counting stats may look a little low, his PPG numbers are still at a low WR1 level. He could be a value in redraft leagues if he slips too far.

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Kevin Harris

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Harris was selected with the 183-overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft by the New England Patriots. And this is terrible for his fantasy prospects. He was the second RB drafted by a team that already employs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. So, at best Harris is RB4 on the depth chart and not a guy I have much interest in until very late in fantasy drafts. In the early fifth round he could be a fine pick. But seeing where his value shakes out will be important. I do like to bet on talent over situation and I believe Harris is talented. But this combination of poor draft capital and terrible landing spot has dropped him far out of my top 10 RBs for this class.

2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Tyler Allgeier

Dynasty / By /

TYLER ALLGEIER | BYU 5’11” 224 lbs. | 04/15/2000 (Age 22) Tyler Allgeier was drafted 151st overall by the Atlanta Falcons, becoming the 12th running back selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. COLLEGE PRODUCTION Tyler Allgeier was an elite producer in college and smashed nearly every threshold that I look at in my rookie model. …

2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Tyler Allgeier Read More »

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Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Tyler Badie

Rookie / By /

This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that still feels too low in the market but has a ton to like about him.

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Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Rachaad White

Rookie / By /

This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that has recently shot up boards and is now in pretty much everyone’s top-10, but that is still too low.

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Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Kevin Harris

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This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that has NFL workhorse size and a great production profile but is somehow not in everyone’s top-12 rookie running backs yet.

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NFL Combine: “Does Size Matter?” Running Back Edition

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Each year the NFL Combine hosts about 40 of the top college running backs from around the country who have declared for this year’s NFL draft. They then have these players perform drills, various tests, as well as weigh them and measure their heights. The test and measurements I will be looking at are the 40-yard dash and a back’s height, weight, and BMI.

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NFL Combine: “Does Size Matter?” Wide Receiver Edition

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Every off-season the Combine comes and Twitter is ablaze with all of the size narratives. “If he’s short I’m not drafting him.” “If his BMI is too low I’m not drafting him.” “I don’t care what their size is, if they produce I like them.” “Size doesn’t matter!” “Size DOES matter!” What we do not see during this time is much real evidence with actual context. We are just given narratives or one-off examples of outliers. “Cooper Kupp ran a 4.65 and he just had the best WR season ever, 40 times don’t matter.” “DeVonta Smith has a BMI of 22.5 but he won the Heisman, I’m drafting him.” Today, my goal is not to fight for one side or the other. It is to look at the real numbers, with an unbiased eye and determine if these NFL combine metrics matter for fantasy football.

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Draft Capital: Why Should We Care?

Dynasty / By /

Making decisions in your Dynasty Rookie Drafts can be incredibly tough. Especially when you are forced to choose between two players you like or even two players you don’t know much about. There are a few factors that can sometimes help break the tie and make this decision much easier. One of them is a player’s NFL Draft Capital. This metric can be used for any position, but today we will just be talking about wide receivers. How does draft capital help us? Let’s find out below.  

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Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Jerome Ford

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This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without being biased by any outside opinions or flashy highlights. Once I collect the group of players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that should be getting more recognition due to how his college team performed but is still being disrespected.

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Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: Why Should We Care?

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Making decisions in your dynasty rookie drafts can be incredibly tough. Especially when you are forced to choose between two players you like or even two players you don’t know much about. There are a few factors that can sometimes help break the tie and make this decision much easier. One of them is a player’s yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA) from their best college season.

Early Declare Status: Why Should We Care?

Dynasty / By /

Making decisions in your dynasty rookie drafts can be incredibly tough. Especially when you are forced to choose between two players you like or even two players you don’t know much about. There are a few factors that can sometimes help break the tie and make this decision much easier. One of them is a player’s early declare status, and this is mainly for wide receivers. But what is early declare status and how can it help us? Let’s find out below.

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Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Tyler Allgeier

Rookie / By /

This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without being biased by any outside opinions or flashy highlights. Once I collect the group of players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. This series is going to kick off with someone who is currently a sleeper but should be talked about at the top of this class.

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DFF: Off-Season Strategy Vol. 1

Strategy Content / By /

Your dynasty league season just ended and now you are faced with the tough question, what do I do now? This article will detail the process I go through with each of my dynasty teams at the start of each off-season. This analysis helps me to more easily make moves that will benefit my plans for the future of my team. This process also helps prevent me from making moves that contradict the current goal of my team. That brings me to the first step, we need to determine the current goal of our team and where we see ourselves heading.

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Week 15 Dynasty Buy/Sell

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Hello, fellow fantasy managers. I am Chris Miles, The Draft Director, and welcome to the first installment of my Dynasty Buy/Sells. I will be helping you determine what players value you should be taking advantage of in your dynasty leagues as we approach the fantasy playoffs and offseason. If someone’s value is too high I might tell you to sell. If I think their value will decrease soon, he could also be a sell. I will give my reasoning for why each player falls in a certain category. There will be advice for both contenders and rebuilders so whichever boat you’re in you can get information from these articles. I will attempt to have the format consistently be two buys and two sells for both rebuilds and contenders, but that may increase or decrease depending on the week. 

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Dynasty: Week 14 Buy/Sell

Dynasty / By /

Hello, fellow fantasy managers. I am Chris Miles, The Draft Director, and welcome to the first installment of my Dynasty Buy/Sells. I will be helping you determine what players value you should be taking advantage of in your dynasty leagues as we approach the fantasy playoffs and offseason. If someone’s value is too high I might tell you to sell. If I think their value will decrease soon, he could also be a sell. I will give my reasoning for why each player falls in a certain category. There will be advice for both contenders and rebuilders so whichever boat you’re in you can get information from these articles. I will attempt to have the format consistently be two buys and two sells for both rebuilds and contenders, but that may increase or decrease depending on the week.

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Dynasty: Week 13 Buy/Sell

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Hello, fellow fantasy managers. I am Chris Miles, The Draft Director, and welcome to the first installment of my Dynasty Buy/Sells. I will be helping you determine what players value you should be taking advantage of in your dynasty leagues as we approach the fantasy playoffs and offseason. If someone’s value is too high I might tell you to sell. If I think their value will decrease soon, he could also be a sell. I will give my reasoning for why each player falls in a certain category. There will be advice for both contenders and rebuilders so whichever boat you’re in you can get information from these articles. I will attempt to have the format consistently be two buys and two sells for both rebuilds and contenders, but that may increase or decrease depending on the week. 

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