2022 Projections: Baltimore Ravens

When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Oh yeah, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman can both easily eclipse 1000 yards while J.K. Dobbins is an RB1 and Gus Edwards is a solid flex play.” But, there may just not be room for that kind of production. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea. 

First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Baltimore Ravens’ fantasy-relevant players. 

Scoring: Full PPR, six-point passing touchdowns, .04 points per pass yard, 0.1 points per rush/rec yards.

I have Lamar Jackson projected for a pretty median season in terms of yards, 3,800 passing, and 1,000 rushing is not crazy for him in a 17 game season. The area that I have him excelling in is passing touchdowns. Over the last three seasons, Lamar has averaged a passing touchdown on 6.7% of his throws, in 2022 I am projecting 6%. While this may not seem exceptional without context Lamar has just always had an absurd TD rate. The league average is closer to 5%, so even though I have Lamar dropping according to his standards he is well over the league average. This plus his rushing volume is what allows him to be so dominant and project him for over 26 fantasy points per game. Lamar Jackson is a fantasy cheat code and with a healthy team in 2022 we could see him break fantasy football again. In recent history, the Ravens have run a true committee at running back. Splitting the work with a 27% share for their RB1, 23% share for their RB2, and 30% share for their QB.

I toned Lamar down a little as he approaches his superstar contract because the Ravens should be looking to keep him healthy and let Dobbins pick up the slack. I gave J.K. a 33% attempt share and a 23% attempt share for Gus. As a rookie, Dobbins was electric and I think the Ravens will lean more into whoever is the hotter hand, which should be J.K. in most cases. Gus will still get his though and be a useful flex play with high TD upside each week. However, due to this split, I am pretty low on Dobbins as a fantasy asset and view him as a mid RB2. Without an injury, there just is not enough work to make Dobbins an RB1 in 2022, unless Lamar drops his rush share by 10% and J.K. gets all of the goal-line work. If we make those assumptions J.K. still only rises to 15.3 PPG, which in most seasons is not even a top-12 RB. I am fading J.K. and you probably should too.

Now for the wide receivers, this group is essentially just Rashod Bateman and depth pieces. I have Bateman projected for an elite, 25% target share. Unfortunately, that large chunk is coming out of a small pie, with Lamar throwing 500 passes that result in 125 targets for Bateman. Therefore, I do not have Rashod projected for 100 receptions or 1,000 receiving yards even though I love the talent. I view him as a low WR2 with a high WR2 upside, I would be shocked if he reached WR1 level in 2022. This part is simple, Mark Andrews is good and Lamar loves him it was easy to project him for a 29% target share with a 32% TD share. Andrews will be a top-three tight end in 2022 and he probably will not be three.

The Ravens’ offense is very frustrating for fantasy. The only reliable pieces are Lamar and Mark Andrews. Everyone else will have great weekly upside due to the high touchdown output of the team, but from a week-to-week perspective, it will be hard to know who to play. I love this offense for best-ball and weekly DFS, not as much for seasonal redraft. I have Lamar as a high-end QB1, J.K. Dobbins as a mid to low RB2, Gus as a low RB3, Bateman as a low WR2, and the other WRs are not worth drafting in a seasonal league, and Andrews as a high-end TE1. Invest in this offense where appropriate and expect variance in their weekly performances.

Previous Teams: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons

Wow, you read all the 2022 Projections: Atlanta Falcons – Dynasty Football Factoryway through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!

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