When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Oh yeah, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith can both easily get 1,000 yards with Dallas Goedert also getting 800 plus.” But, there may just not be room for that kind of production. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to really get a good idea.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Atlanta Falcons’ fantasy-relevant players.
Scoring: Full PPR, six-point passing touchdowns, .04 points per pass yard, 0.1 points per rush/rec yards.
As you can see I have the Falcons’ QB being pretty average with 3,600 pass yards and 24 pass touchdowns. However, Mariota’s rushing will help him to be a very usable QB, keeping him around 20 ppg in my projections. He will be a high-tier QB2, with mid-QB1 spike weeks in 2022. This RB room is a bit of a mess. Patterson is basically a WR, Damien Williams is aging quickly, and they just drafted a highly productive rookie but it was in the fifth round so projecting him for many carries is hard. I turned down Patterson’s carries and turned up his target share since the team has said they want to line him up out wide more. But, the decrease in pass volume keeps him around the same target share as last year. I gave Allgeier 30% of the carries because I see him leading if he plays well but Williams will still take some work and I see Mariota getting a lot of rushes. Then I have Allgeier’s target totals low because of Patterson, and Williams is a capable pass-catcher too.
Allgeier is a low-floor play with high upside if Patterson were to get hurt. Allgeier had a 10% reception share in college so if he could soak up a lot of these Patterson targets and carries he could see 250 touches. Damien Williams, I am not very interested in as I do not see him eclipsing a 25% share of the RB touches without an injury to someone else. Now for the WRs, we should not expect an elite player from this group besides Kyle Pitts. Unless London truly dominates, causing himself and Pitts to each have 25%+ target shares, which could happen. If London earned a 25% target share his PPR ppg would increase to about 12.5 in my projections. Bryan Edwards and Zaccheaus are worth projecting but not really worth drafting in your fantasy leagues. Kyle Pitts is a stud at TE and he is essentially locked in for a 25% target share. I think the TDs will increase from last year as well since he only caught one and when that happens he will be a mid to high TE1 for the upcoming season.
I do not like the Falcons’ offense for fantasy, they will play slow, they will not score many touchdowns, and they will not pass the ball much. The only asset worth spending a high pick on is Kyle Pitts. I could see myself owning some Patterson, Allgeier, and Mariota though as I think they will be fairly cheap options. I do think London may be over-drafted though, given the recent rookie WR production and not thinking about how inept this offense may be. I have Mariota as a mid to high QB2, Patterson as a high RB3, Allgeier as a low RB4, London as a mid WR3, Edwards and Olamide are not on my board, and Pitts as a mid to high TE1. Hopefully, this offense is good and passes a lot in 2022 but I would not bet on it.
Previous Teams: Arizona Cardinals
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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