This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that has recently shot up boards and is now in pretty much everyone’s top-10, but that is still too low.
Rachaad White, RB Arizona State
When prospecting running backs I use these metrics and thresholds to determine which players I like and don’t like. I also look at weight and BMI to help get a sense of the size/build of the player. For weight I want my RB to be at 205 lbs. or higher; this is based on studying historical hit rates of RBs at various weights. It is not super important, but it is a data point and it is useful to know the weights of players. For BMI, I want my RB to be at 30.0 or more. I find this slightly more important than weight, and it is alright to be under, 30 is just optimal. Now that we know what we are searching for, let’s look at how Rachaad White measures up.
Analytical Profile
As you can see in the above Tweet, White hits every production mark that I look at. It is not often that a player hits all five production marks (there have been 14 since 2013), so a profile like this is a great place to start. Hitting my scrimmage yards per game threshold means he was successful in gaining yards from a volume standpoint, but it does not tell us how he was getting those yards. He hits the career YPC also, people like to devalue this stat in the NFL but in my research, college yards per carry translates well to the NFL. If you can’t be efficient in college there is no way you’ll be efficient in the NFL. Rachaad White was clearly efficient in college. Of the 39 RBs at the combine, only 10 hit my 6.0 YPC threshold, so White is already among the few there.
White also has a great touchdown share, this shows his team trusted him on the goal-line and he was able to deliver in his opportunities. He would not be able to amass almost 50% of the team rush touchdowns if this was not the case.
In fantasy, we want RBs that catch passes and score TDs, these are the game-breaking guys that give you RB1 overall potential. Rachaad White earning a massive 24% reception share paired with his almost 50% touchdown share shows us that he is capable of this league-winning upside.
This is not a comp, just an observation. Since 2013 there is only one other running back to have both hit my rushing touchdown threshold and also boast a 24% or higher reception share. That player was Christian McCaffrey. Lastly, White hits the most important metric, yards per team play. This is the most important piece of evidence to show that Rachaad was an active member of the offense and one of the best players on his team. When you are the best player, the opposing team knows you are the best player, and you can still produce these numbers.
Chances are, you will be a good NFL player if given the opportunity. Which is the key for these prospects. Rachaad White is currently not projected to be drafted in this first three rounds. However, he killed the combine and as more mocks start to be released I think we will see White climb up to Day 2.
Conclusion
Rachaad weighed in at the combine at 6’ and 214 lbs. This gives him a BMI of 29.0 and puts him just under the workhorse size tier. But, he is close enough to earn partial credit as a workhorse in my model and for me to not be worried by it.
He also managed to earn an 84th percentile Speed Score and an 87th percentile Burst Score at the combine. These numbers mean a team will not be afraid to give him a lot of touches and he is athletic enough to create yards with those touches. White is a player that should be cemented in the top ten or even the top eight of your rookie RB rankings. He is currently my RB4 as a pre-draft prospect because I am assuming he will be drafted on Day 2. If that does not happen he could drop a few spots for me in this class, but it depends on where the other rookie backs go too. He has a great production profile, he has almost workhorse size, and he has shown elite skill as a receiver. Rachaad White will be one of my most owned players and he is a guy you should be watching come time for the NFL draft.
Here are the links to my other rookie prospecting articles if you are interested in seeing what I have to say about them: Tyler Allgeier, RB BYU, Jerome Ford, RB Cincinnati, Kevin Harris, RB South Carolina.
Also, check out @NickPenticoff’s prospect threads. Using both film and analytics when prospecting is the best way to fully understand these players.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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