2022 Projections: Cincinnati Bengals

When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Can Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase both really be top-12 wide receivers in fantasy this year?” But, there may just not be room for that kind of production. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea. 

First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Cincinnati Bengals’ fantasy-relevant players. 

Scoring: Full PPR, six-point passing touchdowns, .04 points per pass yard, 0.1 points per rush/rec yards. 

The Bengals were a surprising team to look at the history of. In 2021 the Bengals had one of the slowest paces of play in the league and were just average in pass to rush ratio. This could be due to them having an easy schedule and getting up early in games. Then wanting to play slow and waste the clock. In 2022 they have a much tougher schedule and this should lend itself to more competitive games causing the team to pass more and run more plays per game. This could spell very well for Burrow who I have approaching 5000 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns. This projection still leaves him to be about QB10 once things are all done and counted for. Burrow simply does not have the rushing upside to be a top-three quarterback, he would need to throw over 40 touchdowns to reach the upside of a QB like Josh Allen. With an ADP of QB6 on Underdog, I have not been touching Burrow. Now Joe Mixon is a different story. He projects as an elite RB option and is a great pick in the late first round. If this offense plays faster, passes more, and scores more touchdowns all of that helps Mixon score more fantasy points. At an ADP of RB12, I will definitely have a couple of shares.

Now for the best group of fantasy wide receivers in the league. Chase will again be an elite asset, Higgins will be a high-tier WR2 with weekly mid WR1 potential and Boyd will be a very usable flex piece. With how the Bengals funnel targets into their WR room all of these guys are worth drafting at ADP, and these guys make Burrow worth drafting if you are looking to stack in a best ball league. Tyler Boyd is by far the best value with a current ADP of WR55, he is a player I will be drafting a lot of this offseason. As for the tight end, Hurst will see occasional targets so his weekly consistency will be low but his weekly TD upside will be large making him a good late grab in best ball at TE25 ADP. But I would not be drafting him in a seasonal redraft league

The Bengals will be one of the most fantasy-friendly offenses in the NFL and I will be trying to have good exposure to all of its pieces. In best ball they are all draftable at ADP and Boyd is an awesome value in particular. In seasonal leagues, I will be most in on Mixon and Higgins since I usually draft RB early and will not have the chance to grab Chase. But if you like WR early feel free to take plenty of Chase, Higgins, and Mixon. 

Previous Teams: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills

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