When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Justin Fields can be a QB1 with no elite weapons in the passing game due to his rushing upside.” I am here to tell you what is possible and what is not. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Chicago Bears’ fantasy-relevant players.
Scoring: Full PPR, six-point passing touchdowns, .04 points per pass yard, 0.1 points per rush/rec yards.
Justin Fields is one of the polarizing players from the 2021 season. To be blunt, he had a very poor year. He was drafted highly with much better expectations and failed to meet them. The question becomes, can he improve enough as a passer to be a QB1 in fantasy for 2022. My answer is yes, and no. I think Fields can and will improve as a passer, his 2021 efficiency stats were; a 59% completion rate, 6.93 yards per attempt (Y/A), and 2.59% touchdowns per attempt. These are mostly awful when compared to the league averages of 65%, 7.3, and 4.8%. If we increase Fields’ numbers to 62%, 7.15, and 4% (huge jump in TD rate here) in what projects to be a low pass volume offense he falls solidly out of the top-12 for me and is barely a mid QB2. This is including a 25% rush share and a 40% rush TD share as well. I have hope for Justin in the future but 2022 may not be his year.
Now for the running backs, I think David Montgomery will still see enough carries and work in the passing game to be a solid RB2. But, in an offense that figures to only score 37 touchdowns, he lacks elite upside. I would be worried if he was my RB1, I would love him as a first flex though in a start-two RB league. Khalil Herbert is nothing more than a handcuff but he is a very good handcuff, we saw him walk into a starting role during Montgomery’s absence in 2021 to have 19 and 18-point weeks. He should be drafted in the Alexander Mattison range of elite-backup running back.
Now for the wide receivers, there is not much of note here outside of Darnell Mooney who I love at ADP. Mooney saw a 27% target share in 2021 and I do not see why he can’t see a similar share. St. Brown and Pringle are new pieces but they are just average wide receivers who do not present any more competition than Mooney saw last year. Darnell will get open a lot and Fields will throw his way often. The other wide receivers I would not bother drafting. It is typically unlikely that a mobile quarterback can support more than one or two pass catchers and in this offense that second pass-catcher is the tight end, Cole Kmet. I envision Kmet having a solid season for a player being drafted at TE18. He will be a top-12 tight end in my projections with even more potential if he can carve some targets away from Mooney.
The Bears’ offense is not one that I would suggest investing heavily in or stacking in best ball due to Fields thriving off of rushing. But, investing in its top pieces, Mooney and Kmet at cost is a great plan. While grabbing Justin Fields late if you wait on QB can be fruitful as well if he hits a solid leap in passing efficiency. With an ADP of QB18 I am right with the market on Fields, take him at ADP or see if he slips but do not reach, the upside is limited. Montgomery has an ADP of RB19 which puts me again even with the market and I like him as a lower RB2, but love him if you went RB early and get him as your third. Herbert at RB52 is a great grab considering Alexander Mattison goes at RB40. They are similar players, with similar roles and upside, I love this value. Darnell Mooney at WR31 ADP is the smash of all smashes. He is a top-24 WR in my projections so I would be happy to reach for him. We already talked about Kmet but his ADP is low and he is another player I am ok to reach for. At TE12 in my projections, his ADP of TE18 is a very good price.
Previous Teams: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
Did you enjoy this article and want more Dynasty, Devy, IDP, and Redraft content? Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.
