When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Oh yeah, James Cook is in a great situation and is slated to be an RB2 in 2022.” But, there may just not be room for that kind of production. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Buffalo Bills’ fantasy-relevant players.
Scoring: Full PPR, six-point passing touchdowns, .04 points per pass yard, 0.1 points per rush/rec yards.
The Bills were one of the easier teams for me to project this season. Their weapons are largely the same and Josh Allen is going to be good no matter what. I have him projected for a great season, going for 5,000 yards and 36 total touchdowns. Thus, averaging 25.1 points per game. This would make Josh Allen an elite tier one QB again and he is currently being drafted as such. The runningbacks were a little harder to project with the addition of second-round rookie James Cook and not know what the team wants to do with their three very capable backs.
I made Singletary the “starter”, he should see most of the carries and still a good amount of targets because he is a capable receiver. Then I have James Cook seeing a decent number of carries but still being third to Moss who profiles as a two-down, between the tackles grinder. But, I do have Cook leading the group in targets because he was drafted to play that role. This group does provide a lot of concern, they all eat into multiple parts of each other’s work and then add Josh Allen’s touches it is a nightmare. There is value to be had if one guy gets injured but without knowing who that will be and the decreased chance for injury because of the heavily split touches I am mostly avoiding these players for 2022.
The wide receiver room is where it gets fun. I have Stefon Diggs projected for a great season, I think he will end up being a top-three receiver in my projections once they are all done, but definitely will be top five. I think Davis will get an increased target share, he averaged about 10% the last two seasons and I bumped him up to 15% for this year. However, this still leaves some to be desired as he is being drafted as a mid WR2 and these projections have him as a mid WR3 or solid flex player. Dawson Knox is looking solid for a TE, with room built in to improve, but in general, he is not a guy I will be drafting much of.
The Bills’ offense would be one to target for fantasy, but they have minimal weapons that will be reliable every week. I love these players though, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs will be monsters, and based on current ADPs I will have a lot of Diggs. The RBs I have already mentioned will not be owned highly by me, and the WRs after Diggs will be hard to predict weekly. Knox will be a fine TE with good weekly upside and I will own a few of him I am sure, but he is not a player I will be going out of my way to draft.
Previous Teams: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens
Wow, you read all the 2022 Projections: Atlanta Falcons – Dynasty Football Factoryway through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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