Draft Capital: Why Should We Care?

Making decisions in your Dynasty Rookie Drafts can be incredibly tough. Especially when you are forced to choose between two players you like or even two players you don’t know much about. There are a few factors that can sometimes help break the tie and make this decision much easier. One of them is a player’s NFL Draft Capital. This metric can be used for any position, but today we will just be talking about wide receivers. How does draft capital help us? Let’s find out below.  

What is Draft Capital?

Draft capital is simply the equity or cost a team puts into a rookie when they draft them. It helps us define how a specific player is valued by NFL teams. As much as we would like to think that we are smarter about incoming rookies than NFL teams, time and time again we are proven wrong. The NFL draft is split into three different sections. The first is Day 1 and on this day only 32 players are selected, or round one of the Draft. This is the cream of the crop and the guys who hold the best hit rates. Next, is Day 2 of the draft in which picks 33 through 64 occur, or rounds two and three. This is the middle tier of players, and if we cannot get a player from day one we are ok with Day 2. Last, we have Day 3 of the draft. On this day, rounds four through seven are held. If your favorite player does not get picked until Day 3, then you might want to find a new favorite player. Hit rates here are not good.

But, what is so special about having a higher draft capital? How can this help us make decisions in our rookie drafts? 

Well, having a high draft capital is a good thing. It typically means you were more productive at your position relative to your peers. If an NFL team selects a wide receiver at the top of the draft they are instantly more likely to hit than another wide receiver drafted later in the draft. This can help us make decisions by comparing two wide receivers you have ranked similarly and then giving the edge to players with better draft capital. For example, last year I loved Rashod Bateman and like Jaylen Waddle, pre-draft I had Bateman ranked higher but they were members of the same tier. Then after Waddle went 1.06 in the draft and Bateman went 1.27, I moved Waddle over Bateman in my rankings.

Now, this single stat can still not capture all the context needed when evaluating these prospects. But, it is a step in the right direction and still a useful tool. You just have to remember to use the rest of your tools too when making selections in a rookie draft. For now, let us see how useful this exact tool is for sifting through these prospects.

Why does having a high Draft Capital matter?

I have amassed a database of rookie profiles that include all drafted and some undrafted wide receivers since 2013. With this database, I have grouped the players into the different draft capital tiers that I find relevant. The overall hit rate of a random player (no draft capital involved), Day 3, Day 1 or 2, just Day 2, just Day 1, and a top-10 pick.

First, we need to define our hit tiers. My Elite tier is a player that at minimum had one season of 16+ PPR ppg in 10 or more games and an additional season of 13+ PPR ppg in 10 or more games, both of which need to occur within the player’s first three NFL seasons. For reference, 16 PPR ppg is typically the WR12 overall and 13 PPR ppg is typically the WR24 overall. Next, the Good tier is players that at minimum had either one 16+ PPR ppg season or at least two 13+ PPR ppg seasons within their first three years (both must be 10 or more games played). Lastly, the Soft tier is comprised of players who at minimum had either one season of 13+ PPR ppg or two seasons of 10+ PPR ppg. I use 10 for this tier because it is what most people expect from their end of flex type of replacement players. Also worth mentioning, the “OVR Hit” is just the overall hit rate of that section. So, all of the Elite, Good, and Soft hits get added up for the overall hit rate of the group. Now we will examine the chart.

If we look at the first column we can see the overall hit rate of a random player is 22%, this is just our baseline and the other data is what matters to us. On Day 3 of the Draft, we can see our overall hit rate is only 5.7%. This is horrid and is the reason I avoid almost all Day 3 wide receivers in rookie drafts. I will draft an undrafted running back before I draft a Day 3 wide receiver in most cases. Now on Days 1 and 2, we see a sharp jump in the rate to 45.6%. This is huge as just simply drafting any of these players with no other data is essentially a coin flip. But adding other info to this one data point can make your hit rates even better. Like adding Early Declare Status or Yards Per Team Pass Attempt. Now when we just look at Day 2 the hit rate drops, but that is to be expected since we are removing all of the players drafted on Day 1.

Still, comparing Day 2 to Day 3 is not even close. This is why I will always draft any Day 2 wide receiver over any Day 3 wide receiver. Next, we have the Day 1 category where we see the hit rate rise over 50% to a solid 55.2%. We also see a large jump in the Elite hits here and I think that is very important. If you want an Elite hit you need to be drafting Day 1 players. Finally, we have the top-10 guys. These wideouts boast a 63% hit rate overall and 38% of the receivers taken here become Elite hits for your dynasty teams. This is the best grouping by far and receivers taken here should be an absolute premium.

Conclusion

Draft capital is a great tool that helps easily start separating the rookie wide receivers into rough tiers. You have the high odds on Day 1, the coin flips on Day 2, and the long shots on Day 3. Keep these distinctions in mind during your rookie drafts and selecting better layers will follow. Come with me as we learn more ways to use analytics to take advantage of these instances and build a true dynasty.

Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions, you can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, #Rankings, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!

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