When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Deshaun Watson can support two fantasy-relevant WRs along with Chubb being an RB1 and Hunt being an RB2.” But, there may just not be room for that kind of production. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Cleveland Browns’ fantasy-relevant players.
Scoring: Full PPR, six-point passing touchdowns, .04 points per pass yard, 0.1 points per rush/rec yards.
The Browns have a new face of their franchise at quarterback and this made projecting them a challenge. They also have a revamped wide receiver room to add to the difficulty. First of all, I am assuming Watson receives an eight-game suspension and therefore plays nine games. So, his stats and fantasy points are derived from that as well as the rest of the team. Watson has been a very good QB in the NFL and in fantasy, I have that continuing for the Browns in 2022. Watson will be a QB1 for sure once he hits the field, the question is just will the missed time be worth his ADP. Now for the RBs, this will be a disappointing duo in fantasy. Chubb will lose carries to Watson, Chubb will also lose goal-line carries, the team will throw more and run less due to Watson, and Watson targets the RB position at a very low rate. All of this spells bad news for the combo of Hunt and Chubb. As you can see, I have Chubb projected to be in the low RB2 range in PPG and Hunt projected to be a barely usable flex. It will be tough sledding for them this year unless one gets hurt.
With Amari Cooper being the only proven player in this room I have him dominating the target share and being a low-end fantasy WR1. I have David Bell stepping into the main slot role for the Browns and DPJ being mainly a field stretcher for the team. This results in Bell being liable to have a usable rookie season to start his career and if he could reach 10 PPR ppg that would be great for his dynasty outlook. Click here for our thoughts on David’s profile as a whole. I have DPJ being relegated to unusable and should not be owned in seasonal redraft leagues, he is not worth being dropped in dynasty yet. For the tight ends, I think Njoku will lead the room by a wide margin. This will allow him to be a weekly starter at the position with a high touchdown upside, especially once Watson returns. I like his current value and have drafted him in a few spots on Underdog.
The Browns’ offense seems like it could be hard to crack at first, but having Watson’s career stats and the same coaching staff staying in town, it is easy to break it all down. Watson should be a QB1 when he returns to the field, his ADP of QB15 is slightly high but if it drops to around 18 I will be very in. Chubb having an ADP of RB11 is absurd and I cannot draft him there ever, he would need to be closer to RB20 for me to consider touching him.
Kareem Hunt has an ADP of RB32 is much more reasonable and I could see myself drafting one or two of him at that cost. His upside is great if Chubb were to get hurt, but if Hunt gets hurt Chubb does not gain a ton. I love Amari Cooper’s ADP of WR20 as this price is deflated due to QB uncertainty but he is the best player in the group by far and when Watson returns Cooper will help carry you to fantasy greatness in the playoff weeks. I really like David Bell at WR68 as well and he will certainly be on a lot of my benches to start the season. Lastly, I do like David Njoku at his TE20 ADP. If he can create a large role as the second passing option in the offense he could be a top-eight fantasy TE.
Previous Teams: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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