When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “CeeDee Lamb can be a top-5 receiver while Michael Gallup scores 13-plus ppg, Jalen Tolbert is useful as a rookie and Dalton Schultz is a top-5 tight end.” But, these may just be unrealistic goals to set even for the most pass-friendly offense in the NFL. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carrying, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Dallas Cowboys’ fantasy-relevant players.
Scoring: Full PPR, six-point passing touchdowns, .04 points per pass yard, 0.1 points per rush/rec yards.
Dak Prescott has fallen in the minds of fantasy players and I am not sure why. It may be due to his lack of a Konami upside since his foot injury, but I assure you Dak can still produce elite numbers. Dak lands at a high mark of QB5 in my rankings due to the pass-heavy nature of Dallas recently, as well as Prescott’s knack for finding the end zone often. This is why his Underdog ADP of QB10 makes little sense to me. I would gladly take Dak earlier and think targeting him in many drafts at ADP will be a great payoff.
For the RBs if you just look at my point projections you would think that I agree with the market, Zeke is my RB15 with an ADP of RB16 and Tony Pollard is my RB30 with an ADP of RB28. However, I have not drafted a single Zeke because I am afraid of his range of outcomes. I think his ceiling is limited by Pollard and is about RB12, while his floor is also low because we could see his snaps managed to preserve his health and see his touches given to Pollard. For these same reasons, I have drafted multiple Pollard shares because his upside is tremendous while also projecting to be a viable flex. If he gets a larger share of work to keep Zeke healthy he will outscore my projections, and if Zeke gets hurt Pollard is an immediate top-10 RB. This upside has me grabbing him closer to RB20 than RB28.
CeeDee Lamb is a hot topic in the dynasty scene. Commonly valued as a top 3-5 wide receiver but has no real elite production to show he deserves it. The best ball community is showing why he deserves it. Lamb is the wide receiver five in my projections and WR6 in Underdog ADP. I do think Lamb deserves to be a first-round pick in Best Ball and then stacking him with Dak is so easy and a good value. It is my favorite high-end stack to chase. Especially, when you can then add Dalton Schultz who has an ADP of TE6 but is TE3 in my projections.
Schultz will be a part of a lot of my best ball and redraft teams this year, I like getting an elite tight end. With Schultz, I am getting what I project to be an elite tight end at mid-round prices. I have him projected within one point per game of Mark Andrews who goes four rounds earlier. Schultz is one of my favorite targets this year. Gallup at an ADP of WR54 is a great grab if you already have five receivers on your team. I think he misses 11 games but it could be more. Regardless, he will return to the field and he will score points when that happens.
James Washington and Jalen Tolbert I am out on for the most part. Tolbert will have to completely overtake James Washington to be usable. While I believe this is possible I do not believe it is likely. However, thinking this way has led me to grab some Tolbert because the possibility is truly there. Especially early in the season when Gallup is out if Tolbert can win the WR2 job early he could be a very nice piece for the first 6-8 weeks of the season. I recommend grabbing a couple of shares at his WR66 price.
The Cowboys’ offense is one that I will likely have a lot of exposure to in fantasy this year. They play fast, they pass at a high rate, and they score a lot of touchdowns. These are three keys for elite fantasy production from multiple players. The elite assets are fairly priced and still leave room to beat expectations while the QB is quite underpriced and has become a great value. Even though I have not drafted Zeke his value is fair and Tony Pollard is a large target of mine as well. If you want to win your fantasy leagues this year, draft some Cowboys.
Previous Teams: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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