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Fantasy Hits and Misses

NFL Fantasy Futures and Bold Bets

Dynasty / By /

The start of the 2022 NFL season is merely days away, with teams wrapping up their final exhibition matchups. The electric hype of preseason is shifting to a fevered height as managers begin to paint a clearer picture of their projections. Now that we have an arsenal of information at our disposal, let’s dive into some bold predictions for the 2022 season with some potentially profitable betting lines should these outcomes ring true.

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Paid In Full: Evaluating the Past and Present Wide Receiver Market

Dynasty / By /

A basic understanding of NFL contracts can significantly improve your strengths as a dynasty football manager. Knowing when players are due for extensions or about to hit free agency can give you a head start on future market evaluations. Job security is an essential factor in the stability of player values. However, big pay days do not always equate to increased production. In this article, we will highlight a few of the NFL’s biggest contracts at the wide receiver position while looking back on previous major extensions and the production that followed thereafter. First, let’s dive into the current wide receiver contract market and the massive shifts made this offseason.

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2022 Projections: Buffalo Bills

Dynasty / By /

First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Buffalo Bills’ fantasy-relevant players. 

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Fantasy Hits and Misses

Dynasty Market Sweep: Episode 2

Dynasty / By /

Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight.

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Gabriel Davis: Gas or Brakes?

Dynasty / By /

If Gabriel Davis wasn’t on your radar before last weekend, he sure is now. After his explosive performance in the AFC Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs, a football game that some are calling the best ever played, there has been no shortage of speculation and debate about this soon-to-be third-year WR from the University of Central Florida. What do I think of Davis going forward?

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Week 15 Dynasty Buy/Sell

Dynasty / By /

Hello, fellow fantasy managers. I am Chris Miles, The Draft Director, and welcome to the first installment of my Dynasty Buy/Sells. I will be helping you determine what players value you should be taking advantage of in your dynasty leagues as we approach the fantasy playoffs and offseason. If someone’s value is too high I might tell you to sell. If I think their value will decrease soon, he could also be a sell. I will give my reasoning for why each player falls in a certain category. There will be advice for both contenders and rebuilders so whichever boat you’re in you can get information from these articles. I will attempt to have the format consistently be two buys and two sells for both rebuilds and contenders, but that may increase or decrease depending on the week. 

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DFS Week 14 Recap

All Access / By /

Week 14 is now in the books and boy was it a good one. The Tampa Bay Bucs were able to hold off the Buffalo Bills in arguably the top game of the slate. Tom Brady is now a laughable  33-3 against the Bills as he continues his dominance at 44 years of age. Other notable wins consisted of the Browns over the Ravens, 49ers over Bengals, and the Cowboys over the Washington Football Team. With that being said, let’s see how my weekly DFS picks played out!

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Against The Spread: Week 13

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What is up DFF Army? It’s that time of the week for us to provide some insightful Week 13 suggestions. Although new information always causes us to reconsider things, we now have enough information to drive decision-making. As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups.

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DFS Week 11 Recap

All Access / By /

We’re now through Week 11 in the NFL and things are still never as they seem. A game that was a predicted shootout in Kansas City vs Dallas showed to be a complete bust. Josh Allen once again failed to exploit a weak secondary, and Ryan Tannehill threw four interceptions against the Texans. With that being said, let’s see how my weekly DFS picks played out!

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DFS Week 9 Recap

All Access / By /

What an absolutely crazy week of upsets! The presumed best quarterback on the slate couldn’t lead his team to even score a touchdown against the Jaguars. THE JAGUARS! I feel like we’re all in a dream and that this week is a lie! With that being said, let’s see how my weekly DFS picks played out!

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Redraft: Week 9 Buy/Sell

All Access / By /

Hello, fellow fantasy managers. I am Chris Miles, The Draft Director, and in this series of articles, I will be helping you determine what players value you should be taking advantage of each week in your Redraft league. If someone’s value is too high I might tell you to sell or if I think their value will decrease soon he could also be a sell. I will give my reasoning for why each player falls in a certain category. I will attempt to have the format consistently be a buy and sell for each position but that may increase or decrease depending on the week. 

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DFF Redraft Recap – Weeks 1-4

All Access / By /

We are four weeks into the fantasy football season, and already the NFL looks a lot different than it did heading into Week 1. Devastating injuries, big breakouts, and shocking busts have likely reshaped the landscape of your fantasy league, as well. At this point, we’ll begin to see which teams are contenders and which teams are just pretenders.

In this article, I’ll be giving you a behind-the-scenes look at the DFF Redraft Championship league standings. I’ll provide a brief overview of each team and make a prediction about their rest-of-season performance. Ready for the tour? Let’s start in the basement.

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Six Redraft Shares to Watch After Week 3

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Unless we’re analyzing workhorse running backs or alpha wide receivers, a player’s usage can fluctuate from week to week. Some will shine and some will ruin your week. Remember, targets and opportunities are earned. In this series, I will provide weekly target shares, rushing attempt shares, and snap shares of SIX players (or group of players) to help you understand the value of each of them and decide whether to start ‘em, roster ‘em, or trade ‘em.

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The Actual Ultimate Redraft Strategy: Part 2

All Access / By /

In this piece, I will be directly responding to a recent post by @Heady_Football in which he describes his ideal redraft draft strategy. In his article, he states that you should start your draft with three straight running backs while waiting on the other positions like wide receiver, tight end, and quarterback. I am here to tell you why I think there are better strategies to employ. So, after reading both you will truly be able to decide what you think is best.

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Fireside Chat With Heady

Dynasty / By /

Welcome mafiosos to a little Q and A session with the only @Heady_Football. I took some time to gather some questions you on Twitter, our DFF Army, have asked over the off-season along with some questions I have been asked off-line, by my friends and family. Yes, don’t be shocked, I do have a life outside of fantasy football. Granted, it’s not much but it is one nevertheless. So, without further adieu, here are some of the best questions I received.

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Kickoff Countdown! 11 Days ‘til Football!

All Access / By /

Welcome to the second entry in our twelve-part series counting down the days until we can once again sit and watch this sport that we love (and dominate our fantasy leagues in the process). If you missed the first article, you can find it here. The premise is simple: each article will have a numeric theme, counting down as each day is ticked off the calendar. There are just eleven days left until we are blessed with meaningful football and the sweat of Week 1 fantasy football matchups. Eleven days, eleven players on offense. See the pattern here? In this article, I’ll attempt to construct the best starting offense in football. The catch? I can only use one player per NFL franchise. Let’s see who made the cut.

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Bull’s Crystal Ball: Predicting the Top Three at Each Position for 2021

Dynasty / By /

I don’t see too many changes amongst the rankings at the top of the list. Josh Allen has a huge amount of rushing upside and if he can be close to as efficient as he was last year, with an upgraded receiving corps, he has the likelihood of repeating. Patrick Mahomes is on another level, but I do expect the Chiefs to utilize their RBs at some point. While this may seem like slander to not predict Mahomes at 1; he is still my Dynasty Startup 1.01 as I think we can expect top-5 performances into his 30s. That consistency is the value to pay up for early in a startup, but Allen’s rushing upside cannot be overlooked. Jalen Hurts has the luxury that Lamar Jackson had in his second season. Hurts started enough games to have a taste, but teams haven’t schemed for him yet. He has the potential to put up 1000 yards on the ground and is in an offense that will throw the ball more than Baltimore has, and will likely trail in more games which will necessitate airing it out. I would like to be proved wrong but I think this will be the ceiling season for Hurts and at some point this year we should seek to move your shares or ride him to the ship and move on. Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Justin Herbert will likely feature in or around this list but regression or low volume will likely limit their vault into the top-3. 

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Building a Redraft League Winning Roster: Part 2

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Having a consistently high floor allows for a better chance to make the playoffs. But the title of this series is not how to make the playoffs. Our goal is to win. Assuming you read Part 1 of this series, you know that our plan in rounds 3-6 is to go after high upside wide receivers. This doesn’t mean that we are neglecting other positions and only looking at wide receivers, but the value here is tremendous. This is also why solidifying the running back position is so important to do early. It now allows us to chase value in these rounds. 

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Building a Redraft League Winning Roster

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Building a league-winning roster involves being competent across many different criteria. The first box to check is having a high and consistent weekly floor. A weekly floor is important because inconsistent teams tend to not make the playoffs. It’s a long season, and your team getting cold for a couple of games here and there can be the difference between making a championship run and trying to not finish last. Now I understand that talking about players’ floors is not the sexiest topic in the world, but points win weeks. It’s as simple as that. This series will be written for those in normal PPR redraft leagues, starting 1QB, 2RBs, 2WRs, 1TE, and 1RB/WR/TE along with a Kicker and Defense. Follow these steps, and you will be on top of your league’s podium at the end of the season. 

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(My) Dynasty Strategy Evolution

All Access, Strategy Content / By /

Spring of 2018, scrolling through my Twitter feed I stumbled upon a tweet about a 24-team 2-copy Superflex IDP Dynasty League. I didn’t know what Superflex or Dynasty meant but it sounded fun. In my mind, it was like building a Madden franchise, so I joined the league. I really had no idea how to draft or what rankings to follow. I was always very good in my redraft home leagues, but it was difficult to adjust my rankings. It was the middle of the offseason; I had no rankings for 2018 yet. I ended up opening FantasyPros and using the consensus rankings for dynasty. The problem was, I didn’t realize the rankings were for 1QB leagues.

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