A basic understanding of NFL contracts can significantly improve your strengths as a dynasty football manager. Knowing when players are due for extensions or about to hit free agency can give you a head start on future market evaluations. Job security is an essential factor in the stability of player values. However, big pay days do not always equate to increased production. In this article, we will highlight a few of the NFL’s biggest contracts at the wide receiver position while looking back on previous major extensions and the production that followed thereafter. First, let’s dive into the current wide receiver contract market and the massive shifts made this offseason.
MARKET MOGULS
The 2022 wide receiver contract market is littered with the most prominent extensions the position has ever seen. The NFL has transitioned into a pass-centric league with an emphasis on three wide receiver sets and generating open looks downfield, creating a premium need for multiple talented wideouts. These changes in offensive philosophy have culminated in an immense spike in wide receiver pay days throughout the offseason.
The first domino fell when the Jaguars elected to sign and extend former Cardinals receiver, Christian Kirk to an unmitigated four-year $72M contract that included $37M in guaranteed money. An enormous offseason splash made the slot-mechanic one of the ten highest-paid receivers in the NFL. Kirk would be the first of many wideouts to ink a lucrative deal this offseason.
Notable Signings/Extensions:
*Contracts in order of total earnings*
Davante Adams – Las Vegas Raiders
2021 Receiving Splits: 123 REC/169 TGT/1553 REC YDS/11 TD/21.5 PPG(WR2)
Current Age: 29
Signing Age: 29
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2027
Contract: 5 YRS, $140.0M, $28.0M AAV, $19.25M Signing Bonus, $65.67M Guaranteed
Tyreek Hill – Miami Dolphins
2021 Receiving Splits: 111 REC/159 TGT/1239 REC YDS/9 TD/17.4 PPG(WR6)
Current Age: 28
Signing Age: 28
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2026
Contract: 4 YRS, $120.0M, $30.0M AAV, $25.50M Signing Bonus, $72.20M Guaranteed
A.J. Brown – Philadelphia Eagles
2021 Receiving Splits: 63 REC/105 TGT/869 REC YDS/5 TD/13.9 PPG(WR24)
Current Age: 24
Signing Age: 24
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2026
Contract: 4 YRS, $100.0M, $25.0M AAV, $23.23M Signing Bonus, $57.22M Guaranteed
Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills
2021 Receiving Splits: 103 REC/164 TGT/1225 REC YDS/12 TD/16.9 PPG(WR9)
Current Age: 28
Signing Age: 28
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2026
Contract: 4 YRS, $96.0M, $24.0M AAV, $21.5M Signing Bonus, $70.0M Guaranteed
Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles Rams
2021 Receiving Splits: 141 REC/191 TGTS/1947 REC YDS/16 TD/25.9 PPG(WR1)
Current Age: 28
Signing Age: 28
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 3 YRS, $80.0M, $26.7M AAV, $20.0M Signing Bonus, $75.0M Guaranteed
Christian Kirk – Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 Receiving Splits: 77 REC/103 TGT/982 REC YDS/5 TD/12.2 PPG(WR30)
Signing Age: 25
Current Age: 25
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2026
Contract: 4 YRS, $72.0M, $18.0M AAV, $20.0M Signing Bonus, $37.0M Guaranteed
D.K. Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks
2021 Receiving Splits: 75 REC/129 TGT/967 REC YDS/12 TD/14.4 PPG(WR20)
Signing Age: 24
Current Age: 24
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 3 YRS, $72.0M, $24.0M AAV, $30.0M Signing Bonus, $58.2M Guaranteed
Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers
2021 Receiving Splits: 77 REC/120 TGT/1405 REC YDS/14 TD/21.2 PPG(WR3)
Signing Age: 26
Current Age: 26
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 3 YRS, $71.55M, $23.85M AAV, $24.0M Signing Bonus, $58.1M Guaranteed
Terry McLaurin – Washington Commanders
2021 Receiving Splits: 77 REC/131 TGT/1053 REC YDS/5 TD/12.6 PPG(WR29)
Signing Age: 26
Current Age: 26
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 3 YRS, $68.38M, $22.78M AAV, $34.65M Signing Bonus, $53.15M Guaranteed
D.J. Moore – Carolina Panthers
2021 Receiving Splits: 93 REC/162 TGT/1157 REC YDS/4 TD/14.0 PPG(WR20)
Signing Age: 24
Current Age: 25
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 3 YRS, $61.88M, $20.62M AAV, $19.5M Signing Bonus, $41.61M Guaranteed
Courtland Sutton – Denver Broncos
2021 Receiving Splits: 58 REC/98 TGT/776 REC YDS/2 TD/8.8 PPG(WR51)
Signing Age: 26
Current Age: 26
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2026
Contract: 4 YRS, $60.8M, $15.2M AAV, $6.0M Signing Bonus, 34.0M Guaranteed
Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2021 Receiving Splits: 98 REC/108 TGT/1103 REC YDS/5 TD/17.3 PPG(WR7)
Signing Age: 26
Current Age: 26
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 3 YRS, $60.0M, $20.0M AAV, 18.75M Signing Bonus, 40.0M Guaranteed
Mike Williams – Los Angeles Chargers
2021 Receiving Splits: 76 REC/129 TGT/1146 REC YDS/9 TD/15.4 PPG(WR13)
Signing Age: 27
Current Age: 27
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 3 YRS, $60.M, $20.M AAV, $21.0M Signing Bonus, $40.M Guaranteed
Allen Robinson – Los Angeles Rams
2021 Receiving Splits: 38 REC/66 TGT/410 REC YDS/1 TD/7.3 PPG(WR66)
Signing Age: 28
Current Age: 28
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 3 YRS, $46.5 M, $15.5M AAV, $14.0M Signing Bonus, $30.75M Guaranteed
Brandin Cooks – Houston Texans
2021 Receiving Splits: 90 REC/133 TGT/1037 REC YDS/6 TD/14.5 PPG(WR19)
Signing Age: 28
Current Age: 28
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 2 YRS, $39.76M, $19.88M AAV, $16.0M Signing Bonus, $36M Guaranteed
Diontae Johnson – Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 Receiving Splits: 107 REC/169 TGT/1161 REC YDS/8 TD/17.2 PPG(WR8)
Signing Age: 26
Current Age: 26
Year Signed: 2022
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 2 YRS, $36.71M, $18.35M AAV, $17.5 M Signing Bonus, $27.0M Guaranteed
Besides the tremendous discount the Steelers received on Diontae Johnson after a career-best season, the biggest takeaway from this newly founded wide receiver contract market is the large amounts of guaranteed money being handed out. It is hard to argue with the money allocated as every receiver listed above (other than Christian Kirk) has either exhibited elite production levels throughout their careers or are critical mainstays on their respective offenses. Allen Robinson and Courtland Sutton are the two names that stand out for obtaining a major extension after a relatively bleak year. The Broncos’ offer to Sutton reflected a need to surround the offense with stable receiving weapons in preparation for the blockbuster Russell Wilson trade shortly after. Robinson was effectively phased out of the Bears offense in 2022 for refusing to sign an extension. The defending Super Bowl champion Rams view the 28-year-old receiver as a capable number two option, filling in for the role vacated by Robert Woods.
Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill were unable to find extensions in-house, causing both all-pro receivers to crash the receiver market, signing the number one and number two highest-paid receiver contracts in NFL history. It is not a coincidence that most of the names on the highest paid list also reside within the top-15 ranked dynasty assets at their position. Art imitates life. Or, in this case, dynasty values replicate NFL values as well. For better or for worse, all of these extensions suggest job security as a starting-level option for the respective length of said contracts.
This is not to say that these plays are safe from market volatility. Moreover, their role and opportunity on the current team are solidified with a monetary commitment. “Follow the money” is a common saying in the football world. However, from a dynasty football perspective, following guaranteed money paints a much clearer picture. Contracts with low guaranteed sums open up opportunities for teams to release players with smaller dead cap hits towards their total salary allocation. With the contract market shifting to favor the league’s premier pass catchers, it feels pertinent to look back on historical extensions and the subsequent production.
PAST CONTRACTS AND PRODUCTION
Amari Cooper – Cleveland Browns (Extension via Dallas Cowboys)
Signing Age: 25
Current Age: 28
Year Signed: 2020
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 5 YRS, $100.0M, $20.0M AAV, $10.0M Signing Bonus, $60.0M Guaranteed
Receiving Splits Before Extension: 79 REC/119 TGT/1189 REC YDS/8 TD/15.4 PPG(WR13)
Receiving Splits After Extension: 92 REC/130 TGT/1114 REC YDS/5 TD/14,8 PPG(WR21)
Cooper earned his original extension with the Cowboys in 2020 after an impressive 2019 campaign. Cooper put up similar numbers in the following year, but the arrival of CeeDee Lamb soon made the veteran a disposable asset. Cooper’s evaluation on the dynasty market is viewed similarly to the NFL as a mid-range WR2 despite his supposed alpha role as the Browns’ number one receiving option.
Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints
Signing Age: 25
Current Age: 29
Year Signed: 2019
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 5 YRS, $96.25M, $19.25M AAV, $20.0M Signing Bonus, $60.6M Guaranteed
Receiving Splits Before Extension: 125 REC/147 TGT/1405 REC YDS/9 TD/19.7 PPG(WR6)
Receiving Splits After Extension: 149 REC/186 TGT/1725 REC YDS/9 TD/23.4 PPG(WR1)
The Saints’ extension of Thomas was the largest contract in NFL history at the time the ink dried. The organization’s confidence in Thomas was evident by his record-breaking WR1 season after signing his new deal. Unfortunately, Thomas played in just seven games over the last two seasons, missing most of 2020 and all of 2021 due to a severe ankle injury concluding in numerous surgeries and rehab. The all-time single-season reception leader has now restructured his lengthy contract, losing some job security while earning an immediate monetary gain in his later age. With Thomas’ prolonged absence in the forefront of everyone’s minds, the Saints may look to part ways with their long-time WR1 to make way for the development of their younger stars, i.e. Chris Olave.
Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Signing Age: 24
Current Age: 28
Year Signed: 2018
Free Agent: 2024
Contract: 5 YRS, $82.5M, $16.5M AAV, $12.88M Signing Bonus, $55.0M Guaranteed
Receiving Splits Before Extension: 71 REC/136 TGT/1001 REC YDS/5 TD/13.4 PPG(WR19)
Receiving Splits After Extension: 86 REC/139 TGT/1524 REC YDS/8 TD/18.1 PPG(WR10)
Mike Evans is the only receiver in NFL history to record eight consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons to begin their career. Evans is a perennially underrated dynasty asset despite being connected to the greatest quarterback of all time (for at least one more season) and performing at an elite level in his early years without that connection. The 28-year-old receiver is still in his prime and shows no sign of regression. Evans remains a massive value relative to the current market both in the NFL and dynasty rankings.
Keenan Allen – Los Angeles Chargers
Signing Age: 28
Current Age: 30
Year Signed: 2020
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 4 YRS, $80.1M, $20.25M AAV, $13.5M Signing Bonus, $43.0M Guaranteed
Receiving Splits Before Extension: 104 REC/150 TGT/1199 REC YDS/6 TD/16.3 PPG(WR8)
Receiving Splits After Extension:100 REC/147 TGT/992 YDS/8 TD/17.5 PPG(WR7)
Keenan Allen has aged in the NFL like a fine wine, putting up a career-best season at 30 years old in 2021. His current extension represents the second big contract of his illustrious career for the Chargers. Allen is extended through the 2024 season and will likely retire in a Chargers uniform as his following opportunity at free agency will come in his age-35 season. His production has yet to decline outside of minor injuries. Allen’s sizable contract reflects his relative role on the Chargers’ offense as the alpha receiver next to secondary option Mike Williams. Allen’s propensity for consistent production amidst a high-volume opportunity share should not be questioned for 2022. Age will inevitably catch up to the all-pro talent, hence his tapered value on the dynasty market.
Kenny Golladay – New York Giants
Signing Age: 27
Current Age: 28
Year Signed: 2021
Free Agent: 2025
Contract: 4 YRS, $72.0M, $18.0M AAV, $17.0M Signing Bonus, $40.0M guaranteed
Receiving Splits Before Extension: 20 REC/32 TGT/338 REC YDS/2 TD/13.2 PPG(N/A)
Receiving Splits After Extension: 37 REC/74 TGT/521 REC YDS/0 TD/6.3 PPG(WR73)
Kenny Golladay represents a careless allocation of funds by the Giants, much like the Jaguars’ signing of Christian Kirk this offseason. Golladay had never recorded a target share above while on the Lions yet was signed to be the savior of a bottom-feeding Giants receiving corps. The fifth-year veteran was coming off a season lost to injury wherein he only played five games, evident by his menial pre-extension receiving splits. Golladay appears to be an outlier of disappointment on the list of highest-paid NFL receivers. The league has essentially nailed the wideout market in relation to production after extensions are signed, with a positive track record in recent memory. Golladay’s current contract and value on the dynasty market couldn’t be further apart. Dynasty managers have become wise to the Giants’ useless offseason spending and will always have Golladay as a measuring stick for future transgressions.
CONCLUSION
Player contracts can have a tangible effect on the dynasty market from a position of value stability. However, as we’ve proven, they have little correlation with future production in coinciding years. Money is king in the NFL market, but on-field production and talent should always be the driving force of your dynasty evaluations.
*All Contract data provided by Wide Receiver Active Player Contracts | Spotrac*
SIGNOFF
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
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