Hello, fellow fantasy managers. I am Chris Miles, The Draft Director, and welcome to the first installment of my Dynasty Buy/Sells. I will be helping you determine what players value you should be taking advantage of in your dynasty leagues as we approach the fantasy playoffs and offseason. If someone’s value is too high I might tell you to sell. If I think their value will decrease soon, he could also be a sell. I will give my reasoning for why each player falls in a certain category. There will be advice for both contenders and rebuilders so whichever boat you’re in you can get information from these articles. I will attempt to have the format consistently be two buys and two sells for both rebuilds and contenders, but that may increase or decrease depending on the week.
I do not want to put a player on my list just to fill the space if they do not truly deserve it. So, you can trust that all of the players I will talk about are relevant. In this series, I will be assuming full PPR 12-team leagues. The number of flex starters will not affect this information very much but if you have a super deep league you can always hit me up on Twitter for those deeper guys. And with that said let us dive right into the Week 15 Buys and Sells.
Contenders
Keep in mind these are very dependent on who owns these players. If another contender owns them they may be harder to obtain than if a rebuilding team owns them.
Buy – Rashaad Penny, RB SEA Seahawks
A long time ago Rashaad Penny was a highly valued first-round running back with a lot of potential. These days he is a forgotten about, injury-ridden asset, who still carries a lot of potential. In Week 14 we discovered a healthy Rashaad Penny with a big workload and he delivered a huge fantasy performance. I’d be targeting Penny at the cost of a third-rounder, at the absolute highest a mid-second if you desperately need an RB.
Sell – DeAndre Hopkins, WR ARI Cardinals
DeAndre Hopkins gives me the feeling of a dead asset in dynasty. Not giving WR1 production, the value will only decrease, and now injured for 2021. If you can sell Hopkins for a couple of second-round picks I would take that and run. About a month ago I sold him for Mooney and two seconds, if you can get that then fantastic, with the injury I don’t know if you can anymore. He still has great name value and is still part of a great offense so someone may still be willing to pay a decent price. Two second-rounders is my minimum, if you can’t get that then just hold him on your roster.
Buy – Tom Brady, QB TB Bucs, Aaron Rodgers, QB GB Packers
These are the QBs that everyone keeps saying only have one or two years left. And yet here we are five years later. If one of these guys is on a team who didn’t make the playoffs go ask them for a price check. I’d gladly pay a late 2022 first for a top-8 QB who can help me win my championship and even help me win next year. Take advantage of the bubble teams that just missed the playoffs who are now looking at next season.
Sell – Anyone that is not helping you win a championship this year.
It is sad when we need to do things like this but the championships matter more than the value. A perfect example of this is something I just saw happen today. A contender traded away Elijah Moore, for Leonard Fournette. For 2021 Elijah Moore is a dead asset who will not help you win. While Leonard Fournette is a top-10 RB on a great offense who could be very instrumental in a deep playoff run. Fournette should also have value with the Bucs next year as well. I liked this move for both teams and think they each got what they needed.
Rebuilds
Buy – Lamar Jackson, QB BAL Ravens and Jalen Hurts, QB PHI Eagles
If I am rebuilding I am aggressively trading for these QBs. Lamar has been disappointing for most of this season and is now injured in the fantasy playoffs. Jalen Hurts has been great for fantasy yet there is still a narrative that the Eagles do not like him and he will not be their long-term starter. I believe Lamar’s struggles are in large part due to the massive injuries that befell the Ravens and he will bounce back in 2022. I also believe Jalen Hurts is a good NFL QB and will be the Eagles starter for at least the next three seasons. I would be offering a mid-tier QB like Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins plus a first and second to acquire Lamar or Jalen Hurts. If you have to, at most I’d add another second to get a deal done.
Sell – Anyone that is not entering or at their prime in the year you want to compete.
This may be a bit confusing at first but let’s think about it. If we are a rebuilding team we should have a season in mind that we would like to start competing for a title. Let’s say you missed the playoffs this season and tear it down. Chances are you will not be ready to compete for the 2022 season so you will target the 2023 season to compete. This means you want RBs who will be 24 years old or younger, WRs that will be 26 years old or younger, and TEs that will be 28 years old or younger during the 2023 season. This is because you want your players to enter or be in their best years once 2023 hits. So you should be selling players like Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill. These players have WR1 value right now but by 2023 when you want to win some of these guys will have fallen off and become what DeAndre Hopkins is now. Sell players who will not help you in your target years.
Buy – Young Backup RBs
Here I am looking for players who I think have very asymmetrical upside. This means players that do not have a lot of value now but could see a major increase in value. Whether that comes from a team change, coach change, QB change, injury to a starter, whatever it is that causes these players to skyrocket. Right now is a good time to take advantage of this because teams are focused on the starters who are scoring points, not the backups. A couple of examples I have are Khalil Herbert, who we saw be great in David Montgomery’s absence. Justin Jackson is the first backup to Austin Ekeler. Jaret Patterson who we could see get a role if the team moves on from McKissic, then he is one injury away from starting. And Gus Edwards who is not only very involved in the Ravens offense but is an instant RB1 if J.K. Dobbins got hurt again. Those are just a few examples, I am sure you could find more if you looked hard and used these profiles as a guide.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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You can read the previous articles in this series here:
Redraft Series
Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9, Week 11, Week 12
Dynasty Series
