Congrats on living to see another Thanksgiving! I’m sure most of you are already smelling delicious food that you’re sure to be exhausted of by Monday Night Football and agonizing over your Sleeper and DraftKings accounts. Although I won’t be helping you with leftovers, I can certainly help with those lineups and betting lines.
The Fantasy Outlook
We’re lucky to actually have some fun football to watch that should yield us some fantasy production to get us through uncomfortable conversations with our families.
The Entire Bills Offense – One thing that never changes about thanksgiving is that there will inevitably be multiple green bean casseroles and one of them will taste like chunky garbage mush. The Detroit Lions are the chunky garbage mush casserole of NFL defenses and the Josh Allen-led Bill should light up the scoreboard.
Detroit is beyond bad defensively and is at the bottom of the league with 6.4 Yards Per Play and ranked fifth in Scr% with 43.3% of offensive drives ending in a score. Every piece of the Bills’ high-powered offense you own is undoubtedly a no-brainer smash play.
Rhamondre Stevenson – Stevenson shouldn’t leave your lineups regardless of the matchup, but here are some reasons to keep him there in case you’re rich at the RB position or scared because of the return of Damien Harris and Mac Jones’ slow season.
For starters, the Vikings aren’t a great defense and rank 27th in passing and are middle of the pack against the run which translates into favorable game scripts if the defense continues to perform. Kirk Cousins is already facing pressure with a whopping 26.2% of dropbacks before the injury to LT Christian Darrisaw and it’s safe to expect Matt Judon to only make that stat worse for Minnesota. This is a perfect recipe for Stevenson to be fed the entire game.
Kirk Cousins – Cousins has been the stuffing and dressing of fantasy for our rosters since he took over for RGIII in Washington. Nothing special but a safe choice. Today is one of those days where he’s just nothing special. Remember all those stats I gave that would give Rhamondre Stevenson a favorable game script? Now put them all here as reasons to sit him.
D’Andre Swift – This one hurts, but Swift seems to be working in a committee with Jamaal Williams and Justin Jackson and face a stout Bills defense. It seems a little disrespectful to call him a full-blown sit when there is plenty of potential for garbage time catches for an offense that is always playing catchup so we can call him a low-end RB3 or Flex but I’d chase upside elsewhere.
The Betting Outlook
Is your Uncle ranting on about his opinion on the economy? I would say you could tell him you’re stimulating it with a few bets, but today’s slate is pretty chalk.
Buffalo (-425) @ Detroit (+340)
- Gabriel Davis (+105) – Detroit gives up 7.4 Net Yards Per Pass Play and Gabe Davis is a homerun hitter for this juggernaut offense.
- James Cook (+220) – Cook has picked up steam in the second half of the season and is getting more than garbage time usage. It’s safe to say he has a real role after he just came off 86 yards on 11 carries in a tightly contested game. Even after trading for Hines
NY Giants (+350) @ Dallas (-435)
- Ezekiel Elliott (+100) – Tony Pollard has been the big play machine, but Elliott still remains the top dawg in the red zone and has scored five TDs in the last three games he’s played.
New England (+125) @ Minnesota (-145)
- New England – The Patriots have a top defense and pass rush while Minnesota’s line is decimated and doesn’t have the defense to convince me this is an easy win. Vegas odds agree with the modest betting line.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (+115)
- Damien Harris (+180)
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