running backs

#TomBomb: Kansas City Chiefs

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Yeah, I knew out of the gate that this was going to be a tough sell to my readers. The very fact I can place so many expert’s 1.01 rookie selection as my top “buy-low” option is probably nothing short of asinine. That’s fair. After all, Old Tom hasn’t been himself since the Stock Exchange Crash of 1873. Regardless, here it is. If you believe the hype… and spoiler Old Tom believes the hype… you also have bought into the prediction that CEH is going to find himself as a top-5 RB in fantasy football very, very soon. 

I will just make this subjective take as simple as I can. Andy Reid wants another Brian Westbrook/Shady McCoy figure in his backfield. We already know how potent this offense is with the RB position void of a true superstar-talent. At this point, this organization had the luxury of drafting for want as opposed to need, and boy oh boy did they ever take full advantage. With a QB like Patrick Mahomes, who has the ability to hide so many flaws with his scrambling ability, this Kansas City Chiefs offense is entirely a Madden-like construction of talent, and it’s just not fair.

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Risers and Fallers Part 6

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As we approach the redraft season, I want to begin a new series of recent risers and fallers based on events happening in the fantasy football world. In each article, I’ll give you two risers and two fallers. There are many reasons that a player could move up or move down, so I’ll cover various situations throughout this article series. I’ll also include the previous entries at the bottom of this page. In this article, I’ll look at Joe Mixon, Michael Gallup, Ronald Jones, and A.J. Green.

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Leonard Fournette Rapid Reaction

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Today, we had some stunning dynasty news when the Jaguars released Leonard Fournette. I’ll break down the dynasty and 2020 impact on all related assets in this rapid reaction piece. I’ve written about Fournette many times throughout the offseason, most recently in a free dynasty profile. In that article, I had the prescient take not to wait on the season to open to sell Fournette. At the time, I believed he would lose significant work to backups Ryquell Armstead and Chris Thompson, even though I didn’t predict an outright release.  I also noted that the Jaguars tried to trade Fournette throughout the offseason, and they didn’t want him on their team. They declined his fifth-year option, and I expected him to be on a new team in 2021. I have never thought of Fournette as a talented running back, so I thought he’d have little market as a free agent. Now, Fournette hits the free agency market a year earlier than I thought. Once again, if the Jaguars couldn’t trade Fournette for any value, I don’t think he has much interest from other teams. Fournette isn’t an incredibly talented running back, but he deserves to have a job in the NFL.

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#TomBomb: Tennessee Titans

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The nice thing about some of these takes is that they simply write themselves. Now, I’m sure you’re wondering why in the world I’ve placed a 26-year old RB who has logged 804 professional carries, in four years, as my #1 Tennessee Titans buy-low dynasty asset. That’s fair. However, if that’s the case, then you just simply don’t know Old Tom as well as I’d like. Over and over and over again I’ve continued to pound the table on the reality that my dynasty philosophy is much more win-now oriented than most. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not oblivious to the future and what that entails. But, I will also be damned if I’m ever going to enter a season removed from the possibility of hoisting that championship trophy.

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Risers and Fallers: Part 2

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As we approach the redraft season, I want to begin a new series of recent risers and fallers based on events happening in the fantasy football world. In each article, I’ll give you two risers and two fallers. There are many reasons that a player could move up or move down, so I’ll cover various situations throughout this article series.

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Raheem Mostert: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Raheem Mostert should be atop all of the “sell high” lists across the industry. His current ADP alone is a sign to test the market. Reports indicate Jerick McKinnon is healthy and back in the fold while Tevin Coleman still looms in the shadows. I personally want no part of this backfield. A 49er’s running back played more than 70% of the offensive snaps just once last year. Let’s not forget who Kyle Shanahan is and how he utilizes running backs. Remember Jeff Wilson scored two touchdowns in Week 1 and was “the guy”. Mostert had just a 32.2% opportunity share (total team running back carries plus targets) in 2019. Shanahan runs a running back by committee offense and that isn’t about to change for the Journeyman Raheem Mostert in 2020.

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Leonard Fournette: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Now is the time to run away from Fournette. The Jaguars tried to trade him multiple times during the 2020 NFL Draft, and they declined the fifth-year option on his contract. Therefore, Fournette will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season, and he will play for a different team in 2021. The 2021 free agent running back class is a stacked group, with multiple superior options to Fournette that potentially include Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Aaron Jones, Kareem Hunt, and others.  I wouldn’t wait until the season begins because Fournette will lose value if he isn’t the same workhorse as before. Trust me and get out now while you still can. If you can get any 2021 first-round pick for Fournette, I would make that trade in a heartbeat.

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Redraft Impact of PPR Scoring

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The original idea of half and full PPR scoring was to even out the production between running backs and wide receivers. In the past, say 15-20 years ago, running backs significantly outscored wide receivers. But, giving points per reception leveled the playing field. I’ll break down whether that’s still true, but that was the primary purpose behind PPR scoring systems. Also, basing scoring on receptions creates more predictability in projecting fantasy points. As always, fantasy leagues are more fun when they reward skill over luck. Specifically, adding PPR scoring reduces the scoring impact of touchdowns, which are highly unpredictable, in favor of receptions, which are highly predictable.

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Sleeper Series: Sony Michel

Sleeper Series: Sony Michel

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After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. In my first article, I wrote about Hayden Hurst and how he represents a value. Additionally, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet! Let’s jump into my second player, Sony Michel. I’ve come a long way on Michel since I buried him in my “Dead to Me” series. Well, that isn’t entirely true, but let’s get into exactly how I feel about Michel since it’s a complicated story.

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Dynasty Story: Kenyan Drake

Dynasty Story: Kenyan Drake

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In a dynasty story, I’ll look at dynasty value and how a player has fluctuated over time, primarily based on news or events. Then, I’ll give a dynasty take on their future value and whether dynasty owners should buy or sell the player going forward. In my first dynasty story, I covered Mike Williams. While Williams has had somewhat of a roller coaster first three NFL seasons, it’s nothing compared to the next player’s journey. It’s time for a deep dive into Kenyan Drake.

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UDFA Unraveled: RBs

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As the post-draft hype begins to fade and teams start looking for any asset on the waiver wire that they believe can help bolster their roster, everyone is looking for that next edge. In a recent argument on @TaleofTwoRivals, we bantered quickly about the value of UDFAs in a dynasty league but reached no real conclusion. I began to think of who can be this year’s Preston Williams. Who can take the mantle of Tony Romo, Arian Foster, and a few others and carry a team to the next level? Who can you buy low on? Who might be on the waiver wire? What follows is a case study of UDFAs who have finished in the top 24 of their position in a fantasy season, how their team responded to that success (were replaced via free agency, the draft, etc.) and what happened in the following year.

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A Redraft Journey: Melvin Gordon

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In April, I started writing a series focusing on one player at a time, called “A Redraft Journey.” Like my “Dead to Me” series, I take a deep dive into a single player, breaking down their entire career in redraft fantasy football. However, unlike that series, this set of articles is meant to be more positively toned. I’m excited to get back to writing it, and I’m returning with a full breakdown of Melvin Gordon. He’s had an exciting roller-coaster ride both in the NFL and for fantasy owners, so let’s jump into it!

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James Conner: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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James Conner was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 3rd round of the 2017 NFL draft. He was quiet in his rookie season. But, when Le’Veon Bell held out in 2018, James Conner broke out in a big way. He finished as the RB6 with over 1,400 total yards, 55 receptions, and 13 TDs. Conner dealt with multiple injuries in 2019, appearing in just 10 games. His efficiency regressed as the Steelers offense crumbled in the absence of Ben Roethlisberger, but he still finished as the RB17 in PPR PPG. 

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Redraft Strategy: Method Behind the Madness

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The famous saying “you can’t win your league on draft day, but you can lose it” is one that I remind myself of every year. Draft day is the most important day of the year on any fantasy football player’s calendar as stakes are high and one bad decision can unravel an entire offseason of hard work. Having a strategy in place before the draft will limit the possibility of any costly errors occurring. While a strategy is important, please remember that drafting is a fluid situation and this will only act as your foundation when building a successful team.

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Nick Chubb: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Nick Chubb has had excellent success in his two NFL seasons. Once he took over from Carlos Hyde in 2018, Chubb began dominating the carries in the Browns’ backfield. From Weeks 7-17, Chubb was the RB8 and averaged 16.5 PPR points per game. He had 17.6 rushing attempts per game over that span, sharing only minimal touches with the Browns’ other running backs. Then in 2019, Chubb took a whopping 298 carries and gained 1,494, second in the NFL behind only Derrick Henry in both categories. Even once Kareem Hunt rejoined the Browns, Chubb still paced for over 1,350 yards across a full season. While Chubb lost passing-game work to Hunt, he was the Browns’ primary back and would have been a fantasy star if he’d been more successful in the red zone.

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Rookie Redraft Update: Part 2

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Back in March, I did a four-part series on the incoming rookie class. Now, it’s time to go back through my takes and examine how they’ve changed in the past few months. I’ve included all four of my original articles and all my live post-draft takes as links at the bottom of this article. In part one, I looked at the progression of top rookie quarterbacks from March until now. Let’s get into part two, covering how the consensus top-three running backs pre-NFL Draft have progressed in redraft value.

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Dead to Me: Marlon Mack

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I’ve loved the “Dead to Me” series of articles. It’s provided an excellent way to create redraft content throughout the offseason and take a closer look at the week-to-week effectiveness of one or two players at a time. By going in-depth and zooming in, we can discover how these players have been hurting your fantasy redraft teams for multiple years. After the 2020 NFL Draft, there are a bunch of new players that are now dead to me in redraft. Even though this is low-hanging fruit, I have to begin with Marlon Mack.

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A Look Back: Rookie Targets

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Continuing my “A Look Back” series, I wanted to go back even further than the 2019 regular season and reference some of my 2019 pre-draft content. In this two-part article, I’m going to take a look at two articles I published in mid-to-late August 2019 about rookies in redraft. Let’s start with the three targets.

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Three Running Backs I Love in Dynasty 2020

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Running backs come and go quickly in the NFL these days. On average their careers last roughly three years and it’s impossible to predict when an injury will end a season for one player and start it for the next. In this article, I’ll be diving into metrics that show you why I love these three backs who will exceed your expectations going into 2020 after breaking out last season. You need to have an RB1 that can handle the rigors of the season, produce with limited carries, and avoid contact in order to avoid injury.  Our fantasy expectation has to shift from the total number of carries per game and more towards the total number of touches. The following are examples of running backs I love in dynasty formats.

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