Sleeper Series: Sony Michel

Methodology and Intro

After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. In my first article, I wrote about Hayden Hurst and how he represents a value. Additionally, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet! 

Let’s jump into my second player, Sony Michel. I’ve come a long way on Michel since I buried him in my “Dead to Me” series. Well, that isn’t entirely true, but let’s get into exactly how I feel about Michel since it’s a complicated story.

Past Production

Here are Michel’s full NFL stats.

The Patriots drafted Michel with the 31st overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. In 2017, they used a variety of running backs, including Dion Lewis, Mike Gillislee, Rex Burkhead, and James White. Michel directly replaced Lewis and Gillislee, both of whom left after the 2017 season.

Throughout 2018 and 2019, Michel dominated the early-down work for the Patriots, complementing White as the third-down back. While other players mixed in from time to time, nobody else got significant work. In both seasons, White finished second on the team in carries, so there was no serious early-down challenger to Michel.

Even after the Patriots drafted Damien Harris in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft, they continued to stick with Michel as their starter. Harris only received four carries all season, remaining inactive for a majority of the Patriots’ games. The Patriots used unexciting options like Burkhead and Brandon Bolden instead of playing Harris, a severe red flag for Harris’ stock.

Unfortunately, Michel has never managed to get involved in the Patriots’ passing game, even though he brought a pass-catching profile into the NFL. White commanded that role, and the Patriots refused to throw to Michel on early-downs. Michel totaled a miserable 19 receptions on 31 targets for 144 yards in his two seasons. Michel’s lack of receiving work severely capped his PPR upside, turning him into a touchdown-dependent running back option.

The Prevailing Narrative

I already wrote out some of the prevailing narrative in my “Dead to Me” article. Michel has a history of knee injuries. Since that article came out, Michel has had an additional operation on his foot, which will likely keep him out of training camp. The last thing Michel needed was another offseason surgery, as he also had one in 2019 on his knee.

Many fantasy analysts seem to believe that Harris will steal the starting running back job from Michel. There is no evidence to support that theory, but I have heard it continuously, especially since Michel’s foot surgery. Perhaps some real proof will come out as training camp progresses, but without preseason games, I find it hard to believe the Patriots will go to a running back with four career carries as their starter.

The final narrative against Michel is that the Patriots’ offense will regress in 2020 after Tom Brady went to the Buccaneers. While that was a concern, the situation has changed since the Patriots signed Cam Newton. In Newton’s previous stint with the Panthers, they always had a strong running game with DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Christian McCaffrey. Newton opens up rushing lanes for the running back with his mobility. 

However, Newton will steal goal-line touchdowns, which is a legitimate concern for Michel’s value. Michel lost goal-line work to Bolden, Burkhead, and even Brady in 2019. Either way, it’s difficult to discern how Michel’s value changed in drafts based on Newton’s signing, as the news about Michel’s foot surgery came out at a similar time.

Because of these narratives, fantasy drafters have entirely left Michel for dead. While I did the same thing, Michel’s ADP has cratered way too far. According to FantasyPros’ consensus PPR ADP, Michel is currently the RB38 and 95th overall player.

2020 Outlook

I’m not that high on Michel for 2020. He comes in as my RB35 and 81st overall player. There are three running backs with an ADP higher than Michel’s that I have ranked lower: Derrius Guice, Damien Williams, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. I have warned about drafting Guice and Vaughn for months now, and Williams is a handcuff to Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I think Michel provides more upside than those three players, as he’s a definite starting running back, unlike each of them.

However, the main difference between my rankings and ADP is in the overall rankings. Generally, I prefer to draft running backs early, as late value is easier to find at the other three main fantasy positions. Therefore, Michel vaults up my draft board a bit compared to ADP, especially compared to quarterbacks. I wouldn’t want Michel to be my RB2, but if he’s my RB3 on a WR-heavy team, I think he can fill that spot with a high floor and a guaranteed carry volume.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.