Back in March, I did a four-part series on the incoming rookie class. Now, it’s time to go back through my takes and examine how they’ve changed in the past few months. I’ve included all four of my original articles and all my live post-draft takes as links at the bottom of this article. In part one, I looked at the progression of top rookie quarterbacks from March until now. Let’s get into part two, covering how the consensus top-three running backs pre-NFL Draft have progressed in redraft value.
Jonathan Taylor
In March, I stated that Taylor was the best pure running back prospect in the class. No other player had the same workhorse profile that Taylor brought in from Wisconsin. He averaged 309 carries per season and developed receiving skills during his final college season in 2019. Taylor also excelled at the NFL Combine, posting strong marks in multiple drills, most notably, a 4.39 40-yard dash.
At the time, I expected Taylor to be the first running back selected and to receive first-round draft capital. Generally, running backs picked in the first round come in as immediate starters and have a track record of finishing as RB1s in their rookie years. I saw Taylor in the mold of Ezekiel Elliott or Leonard Fournette, a player that would immediately dominate their new backfield on the ground. However, I did note that Taylor didn’t have the same receiving skills coming out as players like Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey. Therefore, I expected him to at least split some receiving touches with a third-down back.
However, Taylor didn’t quite meet those high expectations during the real NFL Draft. He was the third running back taken after Clyde Edwards-Helaire and D’Andre Swift, and he also fell to the 41st overall pick. Also, he went to the Colts, who not only have a third-down specialist in Nyheim Hines but also have a reliable two-down grinder in Marlon Mack. While Taylor is far more talented than Mack, Taylor won’t get 100% of the early-down work in Indianapolis. Especially with the disrupted offseason, Taylor might start a bit slow for redraft purposes.
Due to all of these circumstances, I project Taylor as the RB19 in 2020. I’m always wary of drafting players in redraft that will increase in value throughout the season. I know that I can find players off the waiver wire throughout the year to fill in, but I can’t do that for those first few weeks. Therefore, if Taylor finds himself in a committee early on, I wouldn’t be happy if I had him as my RB1. If we have a typical training camp and Taylor is the definite starter, I will move him up my rankings, but I need to see some clarity from the Colts before doing so.
D’Andre Swift
Unlike Taylor, I pretty much nailed how the NFL Draft process would go for Swift. I predicted that Swift would go off the board in the early second round as the second running back selected. While Edwards-Helaire was picked ahead of Swift and not Taylor as I expected, Swift was the second running back taken, and he went with the 35th overall pick to the Lions.
I also said that I saw Swift as a committee back, at least as a prospect. He never dominated backfield touches at Georgia, no matter who played alongside him. Swift played alongside players like Nick Chubb and Sony Michel but also split touches with unimpressive players like Elijah Holyfield and Brian Herrien. Georgia does have a history of creating committees, but I wish Swift had broken from the pack a bit more in college. Even so, I expected Swift to be an instant starter, complementing an early-down grinder in a 55-45 or 60-40 type split.
While Kerryon Johnson isn’t an early-down specialist, I see both players as committee-type backs. They have similar skill sets, but Swift is better at everything. Swift provides more explosiveness, runs better inside the tackles, and is an excellent pass-catcher, whereas Johnson is just a good one. Swift also has a history of staying healthy throughout his college career, while Johnson has failed to do so in either of his two NFL seasons.
The problem for Swift in redraft formats isn’t related to his talent, though. The Lions under head coach Matt Patricia cannot resist forming backfield committees and won’t go to a single-back approach. In 2018, the Lions stubbornly gave 154 touches to LeGarrette Blount despite horrific efficiency numbers and refused to give Johnson a workhorse role. Even in 2019, the Lions consistently involved other backs, despite not having any good alternatives to Johnson.
Therefore, I have to be conservative with ranking Swift in 2020. I think he’ll need Johnson to get hurt to unlock his true potential because I believe the Lions will give Johnson significant touches if healthy. The Lions’ offense should be pass-happy behind Matthew Stafford and with talented wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. I also expect a step forward from tight end T.J. Hockenson in Year 2. Based on all those factors, Swift is only my RB27 in 2020, and he’s not someone I feel good about having on my redraft roster. Generally, it’s a good process to fade fantasy options on teams with poor coaching staffs, and that’s my plan with Swift for redraft leagues.
J.K. Dobbins
Like Taylor and Swift, I had a positive review of Dobbins as a prospect back in March. I saw those three running backs as the clear top tier in talent, although Dobbins was far behind Taylor and Swift in my rookie rankings. Similar to Swift, Dobbins started in a committee role at Ohio State, where he split touches with Mike Weber in 2017 and 2018. Then, in 2019, Dobbins broke out, where he had 301 carries for 2,003 yards and 21 touchdowns.
While Dobbins was my clear RB3, he fell further behind Taylor and Swift after Dobbins failed to perform at the NFL Combine. Dobbins only did the bench press and skipped all the rest of the drills. I expected Dobbins to go late in Round 2 or early in Round 3 in the 2020 NFL Draft, based on his lack of an NFL Combine. I saw Dobbins as having a workhorse profile and a wide range of outcomes in his rookie year.
Once again, I nailed my prediction for Dobbins’ draft capital. The Ravens selected Dobbins with the 55th overall pick in the second round of the NFL Draft, where he joined a backfield led by Mark Ingram and also with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Dobbins is a far superior talent to Edwards or Hill, but Ingram is serious competition. Ingram finished as an RB1 in 2019, with 5.0 YPC and 15 total touchdowns. Ingram is a great running back, and he has had a distinguished, lengthy NFL career.
While Dobbins enters the backfield with the stiffest competition, he also finds himself in one of the strongest possible fantasy situations for a running back. Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson ran for 1,206 yards in 2019, which opens rushing lanes for whoever plays running back. Ingram, Edwards, and Hill combined for 393 carries in 2019, so there are plenty of opportunities to go around. While Hill wasn’t that great, Edwards also excelled in 2019, averaging 5.3 YPC on his 133 attempts.
I believe that Dobbins and Ingram will form a two-man committee in 2020. The Ravens have said that they will involve all four running backs, but I don’t think that will be the case. Dobbins and Ingram are far more talented than Edwards and Hill, and the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender. They will use their best players in the backfield, regardless of the current coachspeak.
I have Dobbins as RB29, one spot behind Ingram at RB28. This offense could support two running backs sharing touches, unlike most NFL offenses. Dobbins has immense upside, especially considering that Ingram is currently recovering from a calf injury he suffered at the end of 2019. I genuinely believe if Dobbins ever gets the chance at a full workload that the Ravens will not return to Ingram as their starter. Make sure to watch for camp updates on who will start, as it seems like we’ll have a full training camp, beginning on July 28. Keep all of these ideas in mind when selecting either Ingram or Dobbins in your 2020 redraft leagues.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Original Redraft Rookie Breakdown Series: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4
NFL Draft Quick Takes: Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Rounds 4-7
