As we approach the redraft season, I want to begin a new series of recent risers and fallers based on events happening in the fantasy football world. In each article, I’ll give you two risers and two fallers. There are many reasons that a player could move up or move down, so I’ll cover various situations throughout this article series. I’ll also include the previous entries at the bottom of this page.
Risers
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
This one sort of goes without saying, but I couldn’t have a risers and fallers article without including Edwards-Helaire. After Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season, Edwards-Helaire jumped in my redraft rankings. I made him a borderline first-round pick, up from RB13 and 21st overall in my initial Chiefs’ redraft preview.
However, during Chiefs’ camp, Edwards-Helaire has consolidated his hold on the Chiefs’ starting running back job. He’s consistently run with the ones from the start of camp, and the entire Chiefs’ coaching staff has offered nothing but praise for Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs’ offense will be a top-three NFL offense, and I want the running back in that offense.
Kareem Hunt finished as the RB4 as a rookie in 2017, and he was only a third-round pick. The Chiefs also had Alex Smith, not Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, and Hunt still excelled. The main constant is that head coach Andy Reid makes running backs successful, even as rookies.
Therefore, I have moved Edwards-Helaire even higher in my rankings. He’s now my RB6 and seventh overall player, just behind Michael Thomas. I know it seems like a high price to pay for an unproven rookie. But, I believe this is a unique situation that warrants a unique ranking.
Adam Thielen
Unlike Edwards-Helaire, nothing special or exciting has happened to move Thielen up my rankings. Back in May, I had Thielen as my WR17 in my initial Vikings’ breakdown. However, I mentioned that I saw Thielen as a WR2 for your fantasy team, not someone I would feel comfortable having as my WR1.
Since then, Thielen has looked completely healthy and recovered from his 2019 hamstring injury. The disrupted offseason program has affected rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who also spent some time on the COVID-19 reserve list. Therefore, I’m not counting on Jefferson to adapt quickly to the NFL game, and I expect Thielen to dominate targets, at least early in the season.
Because of Thielen’s enormous opportunity and history of fantasy success, I’ve decided that he belongs in the large tier of low-end WR1s. Though Thielen is only WR14 in my rankings, I rank WR5 to WR14 all in the same tier. So, Thielen comes in as my 31st overall player. If I started with two running backs, I’m perfectly content to have Thielen as my WR1.
Fallers
DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins has moved down my rankings. Although this has more to do with a change in draft strategy than a change in Hopkins’ standing among fantasy wide receivers. In May, I rated Hopkins as a solid WR1, and I said I would select him as a first-round pick in redraft leagues. By July, I slightly changed my tune on Hopkins. He still came in as my WR6, but I had dropped him down to my 19th overall player.
The reason why Hopkins has fallen down my draft board is that I realized there is so much value at wide receiver in Rounds 3-5. Conversely, I’m not too fond of most of the running backs in that range. Therefore, I prefer to start with running backs in the first two rounds, or sometimes a running back and Travis Kelce or George Kittle.Â
I believe that only Michael Thomas and Davante Adams are difference-makers at the wide receiver position, and they’re the only two receivers in my first round. Then, Julio Jones and Tyreek Hill make up a tier, coming in at 17th and 18th overall, ahead of questionable RB1s Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler. Hopkins falls in the next tier of receivers, just behind Chris Godwin, although Hopkins is only my 22nd overall player.Â
Hopkins faces a transition to a new offense in a shortened offseason and increased competition for targets over what he saw in Houston. I don’t see Hopkins as having the same upside in 2020 that he had previously, where he had 150 targets for five straight seasons. While Hopkins represents a safe play, I prefer to lock up running backs instead of taking a reliable WR1 in the second round.
Zach Ertz
Ertz has dropped in my rankings for two separate reasons. First, I’ve become enamored with rookie wide receiver Jalen Reagor, who I expect to make a massive impact in Year 1. Unlike almost every other rookie receiver, Reagor has run with the ones from the first practice. He’s a definite starter in both two and three-wide receiver sets. Also, DeSean Jackson looks healthy and explosive at Eagles’ camp, and he should provide another option for Carson Wentz.
In 2019, Ertz and Dallas Goedert led the Eagles in targets with 135 and 87, respectively. Alshon Jeffery had the most targets for any wide receiver with 73, with Nelson Agholor just behind with 69. I believe that both Reagor and Jackson will have more than 73 targets if healthy. I don’t expect Goedert to lose much work either. Therefore, Ertz might finally see a dip in targets, unless the Eagles lose all their receiving weapons to injury for a third straight season.
Also, since I published my Eagles’ redraft breakdown, I’ve changed my tight end strategy for 2020 redraft leagues. I’ve decided that unless I get Travis Kelce or George Kittle, I plan to punt the tight end position in the middle rounds. I love the value on some later-round tight ends like Hayden Hurst, Noah Fant, and Jonnu Smith, so I don’t see any reason to spend an earlier selection on Ertz. Therefore, I’ve slid Ertz down from 41st to 55th overall in my rankings. I’ve moved Mark Andrews ahead of Ertz among tight ends, so Ertz is now my TE4 instead of my TE3. I don’t expect to have any Ertz shares in 2020.Â
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Articles: Part 1
