Continuing my “A Look Back” series, I wanted to go back even further than the 2019 regular season and reference some of my 2019 pre-draft content. If you’re interested in my previous work in this series, the links are at the bottom of the article. In this two-part article, I take a look back at two articles I published in mid-to-late August 2019 about rookies in redraft. Here’s my article about rookie targets, and here’s my article about rookie avoids. I already covered the rookie targets in my last piece, so now let’s look at the three guys I said to avoid.
Alexander Mattison
The Vikings selected Alexander Mattison with the last pick in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. As I said in my previous work, Mattison immediately displaced incumbent backup Mike Boone as the direct backup to starter Dalvin Cook. Since the Vikings are a run-heavy offense and Cook had missed games in both 2017 and 2018, Mattison seemed like a solid pick.
However, in redraft formats, I usually prefer to avoid drafting pure handcuffs. At the beginning of the season, the best strategy is to select players that can break out into a fantasy-relevant role quickly without requiring an injury to another player. If Cook remained healthy, Mattison would be relegated to spot duty and wouldn’t gain value.
In 2019, Cook played 14 of 16 games, and Mattison missed the two contests where Cook was hurt. In 13 games played, Mattison had 100 carries for 462 yards and a touchdown while adding 10 receptions for 82 yards. While those aren’t bad numbers, Mattison never put up a fantasy-relevant game, finishing as the RB61 for the season. Even in his best week, Mattison had only 12 carries for 58 yards and scored his only touchdown of the season. That was only good enough for the RB24 on the week, not exactly what you want out of a fantasy asset.
Based on Mattison’s performance, I think my recommendation here was spot on. While rostering handcuffs in redraft leagues is important, I usually don’t start picking them up until the middle of the season. By that time, depth charts have become more apparent, and the most valuable handcuffs are easier to identify.
To give some examples for a 2020 rookie running back, I’ll be avoiding A.J. Dillon and Anthony McFarland in 2020 redraft formats. Dillon and McFarland are clearly behind starters Aaron Jones and James Conner. Additionally, both players still have to fight with a veteran for the backup role in Jamaal Williams and Benny Snell Jr., respectively. Therefore, neither is even the clear handcuff, and both players have no path to starting work without an injury. Perhaps in midseason, I’ll pick them up, but I won’t draft them.
A.J. Brown
At first glance, you would have to say that this recommendation was a disaster. After the Titans picked him with the 51st pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, A.J. Brown finished as the WR21 in PPR formats and was a massive steal in redraft formats. He caught 52 balls on 84 targets for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns. He also added three carries for 60 yards and a touchdown.
However, if you take a closer look at what I said instead of just the final line, my logic made sense at the time, even if the result was wrong. My first argument was that Brown was not even a starting receiver to open the season. I expected him to play behind Corey Davis outside and Adam Humphries in the slot. Additionally, at the time, both Tajae Sharpe and Taywan Taylor were playing ahead of Brown during Titans’ camp.
Even after the Titans traded Taylor to the Browns before the season, they still didn’t use Brown in a starting role. In the first four games, Brown’s snap share hovered between 42 and 49%, essentially an even split with Sharpe and Humphries behind Davis. He turned in up-and-down performances in those three games, as he went for 100 and 94 yards in two of the games but four and 25 yards in the other two. He totaled only 10 receptions across those four games, so he wasn’t receiving significant volume in the passing game.
The second main issue I had with Brown was the presence of quarterback Marcus Mariota. Mariota had been horrible for many years, and I expected him to continue his poor play in 2019. Also, backup quarterback Ryan Tannehill had been a bust in Miami, so nobody thought that a potential quarterback change would help Brown’s value either. Mariota was as bad as predicted in the six games he started, completing just 59.4% of his passes for only 1,203 yards. He also took 25 sacks in those six games, handicapping the entire Titans’ offense.
As we all know, Tannehill took over in Week 7 and revitalized the Titans. Soon after, the Titans turned to Brown as their number one receiver, after Davis continued to struggle even with Tannehill. Once Tannehill took over, Brown averaged 16.4 PPR points per game, 11th among fantasy WRs during that period. He was an undeniable success and saved many fantasy owners that picked him up off waivers or traded for him midseason.
Similar to what I discussed above with Mattison, when planning a redraft strategy, you want to focus on the early part of the season. Both of the concerns that I listed with Brown were correct: he played a limited role to start, and Mariota was horrible. However, eventually, the Titans replaced Mariota, and Brown flourished. There’s no way that I could have foreseen that in the preseason, but perhaps I should learn a lesson here. In my article, I firmly stated that I believed Brown was insanely talented and recommended him as a dynasty asset. Even in redraft formats, maybe I should still care about talent and pro-readiness more than the team situation. It’s something to think about going forward.
Andy Isabella
Similar to Brown, Andy Isabella also went in the second round, 62nd overall, to the Cardinals. Also, Isabella was clearly behind veteran receivers Larry Fitzgerald and second-year riser Christian Kirk on the depth chart. Isabella would compete with fellow rookies KeeSean Johnson and Hakeem Butler for a role in Kliff Kingsbury’s four-wide offense.
Unfortunately for Isabella, he suffered a training camp injury that limited his reps. Even when healthy, Cardinals’ beat reporters consistently said that Isabella was running behind Johnson and wasn’t going to be a starter. In this case, listening to the beat reports paid off, as Isabella barely saw work in 2019. He caught just nine passes on 13 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown throughout the whole season.
The main lesson from Isabella is to pay attention to the offseason. If you just based your evaluation on the draft capital of each player, you would have assumed that Isabella, a second-round pick, would have played over Johnson, a sixth-rounder. However, things change quickly in the NFL, and few players have a guaranteed spot. Since the learning curve at the receiver position is pretty steep, even highly drafted players can struggle to adapt to the NFL’s faster game speed and tougher coverages.
As rookie wide receivers typically fail, any bad news about them is often a good reason to fade them, especially injuries. Also, certain players are more pro-ready than others, and Isabella was a project type of prospect. I still haven’t quit on him, but he was never likely to hit in year one. Similar to Brown, focusing more on pro-readiness and less on the surrounding situation seems to be the best way to handle rookie receivers in redraft formats.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Look-Back Articles: QB Streamers, TE Streamers, D/ST Streamers, Pre-Draft TE Targets, Pre-Draft TE Avoids, Rookie Targets
