#TomBomb
Buy-Low Dynasty Assets
~ Kansas City Chiefs ~
3. Sammy Watkins
Okay, so right out of the gate I can see that you think it’s time for Old Tom to head back home and maybe catch a few z’s. Clearly, I’m a bit confused. WRONG!!! Folks, believe you me, I know this might appear a bit unstable but I assure you it’s entirely stable. Acquiring Sammy Watkins on your current dynasty squads is going to end up being some of the sneakiest moves you will make, as we prepare ourselves for the start of the 2020 regular season. Please, hear me out.
First off, the age. Watkins just turned 27 back in June. While he’s no longer an up-and-coming prospect, he’s still a few years away from being considered… you know… ”old”. Second, on the list is Watkins’ contract. There was a school of thought, not too long ago, that the Chiefs might cut the cord with Mr. Watkins and save a good chunk of change. However, after much consideration and negotiating, the Chiefs felt it in their best interest to keep #14 around for at least another year. Sure, he’s not locked into anything post-2020. But, honestly, for the price you’ll be spending to acquire, who cares? No one is denying that Sammy will need to use this year to prove his worth to this ball club. Especially in light of their extreme spending spree this offseason (Patrick Mahomes – $503 million, Chris Jones – $85 million, and Travis Kelce – $57.25 million). However, a few are pointing out that he may do just that.
I hope you understand that I’m not trying to convince you Sammy Watkins will ever reach elite status. All I’m saying is that I very much believe he will reach valuable status, especially for dynasty purposes. This brings me to my third point – production. “You crazy old man. Last year he was the WR50 (PPR) and the year before that the WR41 (PPR). In fact, the best he’s ever finished was WR20 (PPR), way back in 2015. He’s washed!” To which I would reply, “You’re not wrong.”
However, a very underrated statistic that Mr. Watkins has working in his favor is the reality that in 2019 he led the Kansas City Chiefs in targets (90). “Yo, Old Tom, that’s because Tyreek only played in 12 games.” Thank you for making our reader aware, friend. And for what it’s worth Sammy only played in 14. So at the end of the day, Tyreek averaged 7.4 targets a game and Sammy came in with 6.4. Or another way of looking at that is, on average, Tyreek reeled in 1 more Patty Mahomes’ look a game. Now, I’m not discounting what can be done with an additional 16 targets, but also let’s not make a mountain out of a mole-hill here. If Watkins can improve upon his 58% catch-rate finish from 2019, while adding another year as one of Kansas City’s mainstays at the WR position, we may just find ourselves acquiring something lowkey valuable.
2. Mecole Hardman
If there’s one thing the Kansas City Chiefs love, it’s speed. When it comes to Mecole Hardman and his 4.33-second 40-yard dash or, if you prefer his 99th percentile ranking, they sure have it. When looking at #17 for the Chiefs, Old Tom must make this very clear – you are not buying for an immediate return. Sure, he will give you the occasional 6-4-80+ stat-line. While hopefully reeling in a TD or two. But, I’m not convinced it will happen enough for you to be able to trust him in 2020. However, as the 22-year-old Mecole Hardman continues to mature and evolve, behind his 2nd-round draft capital, I can’t help but feel all sorts of giddy around his dynasty football potential.
“Old Tom, listen. I need 2020 stat predictions. Stop playing, here.”
Okay, geez. Calm down, will ya! I foresee 2020 looking something like this 88-48-984-8. Stacking that up against his positional counterparts in 2019, Hardman would have clocked in as your WR28 (PPR). Not terrible, in the least. And, who knows? When you factor in the reality that his QBs had the highest passer-rating (153.9) in the NFL when targeting the speedster, you might see that catch total climb even higher.
At the end of the day, however, Hardman’s stock is immediately tied to both Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill. While I just got done ranting and raving about Ole Sammy, if the injury bug nips him again or this organization decides to move along post-2020, you’re looking at a soaring stock in Hardman. Additionally, while I’m head over heels for Tyreek (Old Tom’s Dynasty WR2 ) and his 2020 predicted-production, injuries happen. If you’re able to lock up Mecole, you’ve found yourself with an immediate plug-and-play WR1 on any given-Sunday, Monday night, and/or Thursday evening.
1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Yeah, I knew out of the gate that this was going to be a tough sell to my readers. The very fact I can place so many expert’s 1.01 rookie selection as my top “buy-low” option is probably nothing short of asinine. That’s fair. After all, Old Tom hasn’t been himself since the Stock Exchange Crash of 1873. Regardless, here it is. If you believe the hype… and spoiler Old Tom believes the hype… you also have bought into the prediction that CEH is going to find himself as a top-5 RB in fantasy football very, very soon.
I will just make this subjective take as simple as I can. Andy Reid wants another Brian Westbrook/Shady McCoy figure in his backfield. We already know how potent this offense is with the RB position void of a true superstar-talent. At this point, this organization had the luxury of drafting for want as opposed to need, and boy oh boy did they ever take full advantage. With a QB like Patrick Mahomes, who has the ability to hide so many flaws with his scrambling ability, this Kansas City Chiefs offense is entirely a Madden-like construction of talent, and it’s just not fair.
Whether Edwards-Helaire materializes to a true workhorse RB or not, is almost irrelevant to his ability to simply dominate fantasy football. Assuming health, of course. When we look at an RB like Austin Ekeler, who was able to put up the RB4 (PPR) finish in 2019 while seeing the field on just 57% of the offensive snaps, we find ourselves appropriately accepting this same potential outcome for young Clyde.
Listen, at the end of the day Patrick Mahomes told Andy Reid to draft Clyde Edwards-Helaire. That coupled with CEH’s ability to catch the ball and produce after the catch is exactly what fantasy owners crave.
So… while it’s going to cost you a pretty penny to acquire #25 in Kansas City, I’m telling you right now, it will pale in comparison to what it will cost you 356 days from now. While Old Tom is all about buying low, there’s also a correct time to buy high. And that time is right now.
I genuinely thank you for taking the time to read my article. You can find my other articles on this site here. I also kindly welcome you to follow me on Twitter @BombadilFantasy. Additionally, I welcome you to explore #TomBomb: Simplicity & Subjectivity. Both of these platforms, my friends, is where you’ll find as many #TomBombs as your heart can desire. Remember, while I have quite an extensive history and the wisdom to show for it, I’m still perfecting my craft of fortune-telling. It is this reality of uncertainty that plays directly into my foundation of simplicity and subjectivity. Nonetheless, you have my assurance that you’re in great hands with Old Tom Bombadil. Hey dol! merry dol! ring a dong dillo!
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