As the post-draft hype begins to fade and teams start looking for any asset on the waiver wire that they believe can help bolster their roster, everyone is looking for that next edge. In a recent argument on @TaleofTwoRivals, we bantered quickly about the value of UDFAs in a dynasty league but reached no real conclusion. I began to think of who can be this year’s Preston Williams. Who can take the mantle of Tony Romo, Arian Foster, and a few others and carry a team to the next level? Who can you buy low on? Who might be on the waiver wire? What follows is a case study of UDFAs who have finished in the top 24 of their position in a fantasy season, how their team responded to that success (were replaced via free agency, the draft, etc.) and what happened in the following year.
Using the free database constructed by @ff_spaceman, we are able to view the fantasy finishes of every player since 2003 and filter through by their draft positions. Worth noting, ff_spaceman does not factor Week 17 into his statistical construction, because, in his own words, “Week 17 scoring is for marks”. Once my head stopped spinning from the volume of data, I sat down to construct this narrative.
Only five UDFA running backs have achieved a top 24 season. Some are household names and seemed to be perennially pegged “sleepers” who found opportunity either in their current situation, through an injury that thrust them up the depth chart, or by switching teams. Let’s dive in:
A Saints UDFA, Ivory had an impressive rookie season in 2010 after incumbent starter Reggie Bush and backup Pierre Thomas went down with injuries. Despite that hot start, 2011 became very bleak for Ivory when the Saints traded into the first round of the draft to select Mark Ingram. He would linger on the roster for two more years, not seeing many snaps, losing time to injuries, and slipping further down the depth chart.
A 2013 draft night trade sent Ivory to the New York Jets. For his first two seasons, Ivory would split time with Bilal Powell and Chris Johnson, limiting all of their ceilings. Ivory’s best finish was an RB2 season buoyed by his six touchdowns in 2014. The Jets declined to pick up the remainder of Johnson’s contract after that season, finally positioning Ivory as a team’s RB1. And he did not throw away his shot. He finished as the AFC Rushing Champion, posting over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns finishing the season as an RB1. It seemed as though Ivory was finally delivering on the promise that he had teased for the past few years. His contract with the Jets expired that year, and despite his success as their bell cow, the Jets declined to sign him to a new contract.
The Jaguars signed Ivory to a three-year deal, but he never seized the opportunity. Ivory failed to capitalize due to injuries, negative game scripts, and competition from TJ Yeldon finishing as an RB4. Ivory’s outlook became even bleaker when the Jaguars used a top selection on Leonard Fournette in the following draft. He would never again eclipse 500 yards and/or three TDs.
Blount originally signed as a UDFA with the Titans but was a last-minute waiver, and was picked up by the Bucs. Blount showed out so well that he was able to usurp oft-injured incumbent Cadillac Williams. He logged over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns, nabbing an RB3 season. Blount would repeat his production the next year and again finish as an RB3 but saw lower totals as his efficiency took a step back. Despite that, and his cheap price tag, the Bucs spent a first-round draft pick on Doug Martin in 2012. Blount was relegated to irrelevance that season and was traded to the Patriots the following year.
As many do, Blount suffered through a variable and fantasy-frustrating Patriots running back by committee. Despite splitting time with Shane Vareen, Blount still logged seven touchdowns. However, he did not log enough yardage to generate fantasy relevance. Despite the red zone viability and a fantastic playoff performance, the Patriots let Blount walk. He made a brief pitstop in Pittsburgh on a two-year deal but was plagued by a preseason arrest with fellow back Le’Veon Bell. Blount was used sparingly in the early part of the season and was released after walking off the field before the end of the game after not frustratingly not logging a single touch.
As they’re one to do, the Patriots swooped back in and resigned Blount on a two-year contract. For 2014 and 2015, Blount was once again held to under 200 carries, but that finally changed in 2016. Unleashed to the tune of 299 carries, Blount dominated, logging over 1,100 yards and 18 TDs. He finished the season as a mid-RB1 and helped the Patriots win a Super Bowl with some great postseason moments. Despite that, Blount was once again allowed to walk. He signed a one year deal with Eagles, collected another ring, but was once again allowed to walk. After that came Detroit on a, you guessed it, one year contract. Blount retired the following year.
Graham landed with the Buccaneers after going undrafted in the 2003 draft. He barely logged over 50 carries combined in his first three seasons. Being the fourth man on the depth chart behind Cadillac Williams, Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott left little room for Graham to make a mark for himself. That all changed in 2007 due to extensive injuries in the running back room.
Graham took full advantage, exploding for almost 900 yards and 10 TDs on over 200 carries. That landed Graham as a low-end RB1 for the season. 2008 seemed to look up. Pittman and Alstott were both gone, and the nature of Williams’ injury looked to keep him out of most of that campaign. Graham decided to hold out for a better contract based on his success from the previous year. Despite getting a raise, the Bucs also brought in Warrick Dunn for competition. During the season Graham was shifted to fullback, stayed there for the remainder of his career, and the fantasy community never heard from him again.
Foster is certainly the most accomplished name on this list. A 2009 UDFA, Foster spent most of his rookie season on the practice squad or on the bench. Foster easily overtook uninspiring incumbent Steve Slaton in the 2010 season. All he did was log 327 carries and 66 receptions to accumulate a combined 2,220 yards and 18 touchdowns. This ridiculous season easily landed Foster as the RB1, finishing almost 100 points ahead of the next player. Despite preseason injuries and a Week 1 suspension, he repeated that same production in 2011. Foster again finished in the top five of RBs on the back of 331 touches for 1,841 yards and 12 touchdowns.
2012 saw a big payday to the tune of $43.5 million over five seasons. And how did Foster respond? Another top-five RB finish-to the tune of almost 400 touches for 1,500 yards and 17 touchdowns. 2013 was mostly lost to a back injury, but Foster bounced right back in 2014. 2014 saw another top-five RB finish on the back of almost 300 touches for over 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns.
2015 was another injury-plagued campaign for Foster, costing him most of the season. Released by the Texans after that season, he was signed with Miami. Unfortunately, he once again was devastated by injuries and was forced into retirement.
Not only does Fosters’ consistent multiyear production set him apart from the other players listed here, but more importantly, the team’s commitment to him is unlike any other player. No other player besides Foster was given a contract that guaranteed money beyond the first year. No other player was in a situation where competition was not brought in via the draft or free agency. But what is most important to note is Foster’s skill set. Out of the UDFA RBs to rise to fantasy relevance, Foster is the only player who showed prowess in both the ground and passing game.
Bottom Line: Despite logging RB1 and RB2 finishes, teams rarely show these running backs any allegiance. We’re currently living in a fantasy landscape where accomplished and high draft capital picks have a hard time securing lucrative second contracts. The odds of a UDFA securing a multiyear contract for a team willing to commit fantasy-relevant touches are slim to none. Poor Chris Ivory was replaced twice by first-round draft picks on two different teams. Blount was also replaced by a first-round pick and was never given full-time back volume outside of 2016. Graham had his position changed out from under him after logging an RB1 season. Versatile talent like Arian Foster falling into the UDFA category is clearly a major outlier. Don’t spend to get these players, your ROI will never show up.
For more rantings, check out the rest of my articles at Dynasty Football Factory, and follow me on Twitter at @ff_walrus!
