Elijah Moore

Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: New York Jets

Dynasty / By /

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). The big free agency splash moments are all but over at this point, and the NFL Draft is approaching quickly. We, as dynasty managers, need to be evaluating these offseason transactions and thinking about our roster adjustments every day. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “offseason edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the New York Jets. 

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Art of Arbitrage: Part 2

Dynasty / By /

Dynasty fantasy football has often been compared to the stock market. While there are some flaws in this analogy, many of the general principles are the same. We want to “buy low” and “sell high.” We want to diversify our portfolio across multiple leagues to mitigate risk. We want a healthy mixture of upside and safety in our investments. And, we want to look for arbitrage opportunities.

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The WR1 Rating: Dynasty Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings Countdown (15-11)

Rookie / By /

Over the next few weeks, I will be revealing my annual WR1 prospect model ratings to help prepare DFF readers for their dynasty rookie drafts. This article covers the prospects ranked 15-11 in the model. For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. You may find an in-depth explanation of the model’s process and a glossary of what the metrics mean here. Before we get into the 2022 prospects, here are the top 20 all-time prospects in the model so you can see how effective it is at forecasting future fantasy value.

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The Pre-Draft WR1: Prospect Model Ratings

Rookie / By /

For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. If data-driven rankings are not for you, I suggest my colleague @DocFFFN’s wide receiver review from a film perspective. 

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NFL Combine: “Does Size Matter?” Wide Receiver Edition

Rookie / By /

Every off-season the Combine comes and Twitter is ablaze with all of the size narratives. “If he’s short I’m not drafting him.” “If his BMI is too low I’m not drafting him.” “I don’t care what their size is, if they produce I like them.” “Size doesn’t matter!” “Size DOES matter!” What we do not see during this time is much real evidence with actual context. We are just given narratives or one-off examples of outliers. “Cooper Kupp ran a 4.65 and he just had the best WR season ever, 40 times don’t matter.” “DeVonta Smith has a BMI of 22.5 but he won the Heisman, I’m drafting him.” Today, my goal is not to fight for one side or the other. It is to look at the real numbers, with an unbiased eye and determine if these NFL combine metrics matter for fantasy football.

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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 9

Dynasty Superflex Startup Mock: Drafting From The 1.03

Mock Drafts / By /

I recently had the pleasure of joining Paul Patterson (@fantasyfreezer) in a dynasty startup mock draft in preparation for new leagues this offseason. The draft order was appointed by each user rather than randomized. Usually, I prefer to draft in the 1.10-1.12 range and stack two top-tier dynasty assets on the short turn. Choosing to select from the 1.03, I deliberately put myself in a position of unfamiliarity to understand the draft board with a different view. Here’s what I found out.

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DFF Dynasty SF PPR Mock Draft Review: Positional Breakdown

Dynasty / By /

For all but two teams, the NFL season is over. There are no more lineups to set or waiver claims to make, which can only mean one thing: the dynasty offseason is upon us. At this time of year, which is really like its own game within the game, mock drafts are incredibly valuable. They help us to understand how the public perception of players (say that five times fast) has shifted over the past several months. Even if you don’t plan on joining any new startups, a mock draft can help you to identify players–or even whole positions–that are over or undervalued by the community. Since I recently completed a startup mock draft with some of my friends here at DFF, I thought I would share some of my observations with you.

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Fantasy Hits and Misses

Dynasty Market Sweep: Episode 2

Dynasty / By /

Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight.

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Week 15 Dynasty Buy/Sell

Dynasty / By /

Hello, fellow fantasy managers. I am Chris Miles, The Draft Director, and welcome to the first installment of my Dynasty Buy/Sells. I will be helping you determine what players value you should be taking advantage of in your dynasty leagues as we approach the fantasy playoffs and offseason. If someone’s value is too high I might tell you to sell. If I think their value will decrease soon, he could also be a sell. I will give my reasoning for why each player falls in a certain category. There will be advice for both contenders and rebuilders so whichever boat you’re in you can get information from these articles. I will attempt to have the format consistently be two buys and two sells for both rebuilds and contenders, but that may increase or decrease depending on the week. 

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Against The Spread: Week 14

All Access / By /

What is up DFF Army? It’s that time of the week for us to provide some insightful Week 13 suggestions. Although new information always causes us to reconsider things, we now have enough information to drive decision-making. As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups.

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Rookie Stock Report: Final

Dynasty / By /

I’m not saying Mac Jones is the next Patrick Mahomes or even Justin Herbert. But he’s now a solid prospect with the potential to have a very safe floor for a long time. Think Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr. Neither of them makes you feel giddy but you don’t want to undersell a sneaky QB1 or high-end QB2. Mac Jones may not be a Lamar Jackson-type fantasy darling but he is a  quality “real” quarterback that you shouldn’t worry about losing his job anytime soon. The Patriots are back in the playoff hunt and much of that success is due to the rookie’s success.

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Psych’s Picks: Week 13

All Access / By /

Greetings, #DFFArmy, and welcome. My name’s Matt Ward, or as many of you know me from social media, Psych Ward. I’ll be filling in for Paul in this week’s edition of “Psych’s Picks.” Every week, Paul lists his top starts and sits with the keys to success for each player. I want to add: I will personally be favouring and fading these players in my matchups.

Now, with the introduction formalities out of the way, let’s dive into the players I believe will make or break your fantasy lineups in Week 13.

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DFS Week 12 Recap

All Access / By /

We’re now through Week 12 in the NFL and things are still never as they seem. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in a high-scoring affair against Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts. Brady only threw one touchdown in a game where 69 total points were scored. With that being said, let’s see how my weekly DFS picks played out!

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Six Redraft Shares to Watch After Week 11

All Access / By /

Unless we’re analyzing workhorse running backs or alpha wide receivers, a player’s usage can fluctuate from week to week. Some will shine and some will ruin your week. Remember, targets and opportunities are earned. After two weeks of disappearing, I will be making a special edition. In this series, I will provide target shares, rushing attempt shares, and snap shares of EIGHT players (or group of players) on this past three weeks to help you understand the value of each of them and decide whether to start ‘em, roster ‘em, or trade ‘em.

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DFS Week 11 Recap

All Access / By /

We’re now through Week 11 in the NFL and things are still never as they seem. A game that was a predicted shootout in Kansas City vs Dallas showed to be a complete bust. Josh Allen once again failed to exploit a weak secondary, and Ryan Tannehill threw four interceptions against the Texans. With that being said, let’s see how my weekly DFS picks played out!

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 11

Rookie / By /

Michael Carter has been the RB3 over the last four weeks. Let that sink in. It’s worth reminding folks that the Jets’ running back has been leading the team in target and relying on this receiving volume might not always be sustainable but the talent is being noticed. The GM and coaching staff need to put all their effort into the offensive line this offseason before we see the rushing efficiency we’d want out of a running back but I continue to be encouraged by all the moves I’ve seen thus far. Buy him now while there are still those who doubt.

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FFPC Dynasty & Redraft Series: Week 10

Dynasty / By /

There are only a few weeks of the fantasy football regular season left to go before the playoffs. According to my research, the magic number to make the playoffs in FFPC dynasty leagues is 29 Victory Points (VP). This week is probably about the last chance for teams that are in the hunt to make a legitimate push for one of the last playoff spots. If you are a contender already, then it is time to thoroughly load up for your playoff run. It depends on your league, though. In the Footballguys Players Championship (FBG) and Main Event tourneys, the regular season ends after Week 12, so there are only three weeks left to go!

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Rapid Reaction: Cam Newton’s Homecoming

Dynasty / By /

Cam Newton is coming home. After the news broke of Sam Darnold’s shoulder injury, most likely forcing him to IR, the Panthers were left with a predicament. Do they leave their season in the hands of former XFL star P.J. Walker? Or do they look for a veteran on the market? Well, here comes Cam! 

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 9

Rookie / By /

No touchdowns despite a decent rushing game that resulted in a flex-like game for Khalil Herbert. The Chicago offense looked much better while Matt Nagy was out (more on this later) and Justin Fields vultured opportunities after a healthy uptick in rushing usage.  It’s obviously disappointing to those hoping to have another RB2 performance before Montgomery’s return but consider this encouraging for all of our Chicago shares in the future. Herbert should have Tony Pollard-like upside in the future and is a hold no matter what.

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 8

Rookie / By /

Elijah Mitchell continues to dominate the 49ers ‘backfield and is running as efficiently as any player should in this system. Trey Sermon has been relegated to a special teams player and doesn’t seem to be a threat, however, JaMycal Hasty has returned and received 34% of the snaps as the third-down back. This will cap Mitchell’s receiving production but the 49ers have a running scheme that gives its players a chance to score anytime they touch the ball. Mitchell lacks size but has the burst to replicate Raheem Mostert’s production and can actually stay on the field. So far anyway. Mitchell should be considered the second-ranked rookie running back behind only Najee Harris.

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