DFF Dynasty SF PPR Mock Draft Review: Positional Breakdown

For all but two teams, the NFL season is over. There are no more lineups to set or waiver claims to make, which can only mean one thing: the dynasty offseason is upon us. At this time of year, which is really like its own game within the game, mock drafts are incredibly valuable. They help us to understand how the public perception of players (say that five times fast) has shifted over the past several months. Even if you don’t plan on joining any new startups, a mock draft can help you to identify players–or even whole positions–that are over or undervalued by the community. Since I recently completed a startup mock draft with some of my friends here at DFF, I thought I would share some of my observations with you.

First, let me provide some context. This was a 12-team Superflex PPR mock draft with two RB slots, two WR slots, and three flex positions. The results of the first ten rounds are posted below. I’ll be focusing on this portion of the draft in my breakdown.

Quarterback

Best values: Matthew Stafford, 3.11 (QB15); Derek Carr, 6.03 (QB21)

In Superflex, the QB has always been king, but the position is more top-heavy right now than I’ve ever seen. With so many question marks surrounding this 2022 class, and with so many NFL teams searching for answers at the position, the established QBs are being pushed way up. There were 11 QBs selected in the first 25 picks and a total of 20 in the top 60. Generally speaking, this premium on QBs makes sense. They score more points than any other position, and they typically have the longest careers. However, you shouldn’t be rushing to overpay for mid-tier QBs such as Zach Wilson or Tua Tagovailoa–who I believe went too high here–simply due to perceived “job security.” If they can survive the NFL Draft and free agency, players like Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz will offer similar fantasy production at a five-round discount. 

Seeing how this mock played out, I think the best strategy to maximize both immediate production and longevity at the position is to target two QBs early and to be one of the last teams to add a third. 

Running Back

Best values: Cam Akers, 4.07 (RB11); Elijah Mitchell, 6.01 (RB19); Leonard Fournette, 10.03 (RB33)

At the RB position, there’s Jonathan Taylor and then there’s everyone else. And after another season filled with injuries at the position, many are hesitant to hang their team’s hopes on a high-profile RB. This is because older RBs (basically ages 26 and up) possess asymmetrical downside. In other words, their potential to lose value far outweighs their ability to accrue value. Take Joe Mixon, for example. Despite finishing as the RB4 in 2021, Mixon is being drafted in roughly the same ADP zone that he was last year. This principle also applies to Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook, who all fell into the fourth round or beyond.

Handling the RB position in a startup is fairly straightforward, but you need to decide on a strategy and stick to it. If you want to target younger, less-proven players and opt for the “productive struggle” approach, then grab a young RB like Javonte Williams or Cam Akers and load up on QBs and WRs. If you want to win right away, you can take advantage of the age discount on “older,” productive RBs in the middle rounds.

Wide Receiver

Best values: Diontae Johnson, 4.08 (WR13); Michael Thomas, 8.03 (WR33); Courtland Sutton, 10.02 (WR42)

Everybody knows that Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are the top-two dynasty WRs, and they’ll both be taken in the first round of every dynasty startup this offseason. However, there’s little consensus on the rest of the top twelve. The position is also incredibly deep, with a seemingly endless well of players with WR3/flex-type upside stretching into the double-digit rounds. 

Due to the yearly volatility of the position, you want to be patient at WR. That doesn’t mean you should avoid WRs in early rounds, but you should let the value come to you rather than chasing particular players. Take the last WR in a particular tier, not the first. For example, CeeDee Lamb was taken at 2.02 in this mock draft while Tee Higgins went at 3.07 and Diontae Johnson went at 4.08. Lamb is young and talented, and may well be the best of this group, but he is not as far ahead of the others as the draft board might suggest. 

Meanwhile, you can find WRs of all shapes and sizes in the middle rounds. You can round out your win-now roster with productive veterans like Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, and Brandin Cooks, or you can swing for the fences with young talents such as Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman, and Brandon Aiyuk. 

Tight End

Best values: George Kittle, 5.05 (TE3); Dallas Goedert, 6.10 (TE7); Pat Freiermuth, 9.02 (TE12)

For the past few seasons, we’ve consistently seen Travis Kelce and George Kittle atop the dynasty tight end rankings. But now there’s a new kid on the block: Kyle Pitts. You may have heard of him. Considering he was drafted higher than any TE in NFL history and cracked 1,000 yards as a 21-year-old rookie, people are understandably excited about his future. Meanwhile, Mark Andrews seems to be the consensus TE2 after he led the position in fantasy points in 2021. 

After Pitts and Andrews were drafted, another 26 picks slipped by before I selected George Kittle in the fifth round. Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, Travis Kelce, and Dallas Goedert soon followed. In my eyes, these top seven TEs are significantly ahead of the rest, capable of offering a positional advantage. If you miss out on the top tier, don’t panic. There are other paths to production. Once upon a time, Kittle and Waller were just speculative adds, and Dawson Knox was practically left for dead heading into 2021. If you take enough shots on young, athletic TEs in the later rounds, you’ll eventually find a hit. 

If you found this positional breakdown helpful, make sure to keep an eye out for my next article where I’ll be breaking down the thought process behind each of my picks!

Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.

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