What is up DFF Army? It’s that time of the week for us to provide some insightful Week 13 suggestions. Although new information always causes us to reconsider things, we now have enough information to drive decision-making. As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups.
TERMS TO KNOW – SEE WEEK 2
WEEK 13 REVIEW
According to the Chinese Zodiac signs, 2021 is the year of the Ox. However, I am officially declaring 2021 as the NFL year of the dog!
Last week the underdog came out of the game victorious at a 54% rate. For the entire season, the underdogs are covering the spread at a 54% clip. Also in Week 13, the Under hit eight times (61%) compared to five Overs (39%).
THE SUNDAY SLATE
Without further ado, here is the slate for this weekend’s matchups.
HIGH-LEVEL TRENDS
Here is how each team is performing so far this season. The teams are sorted in decreasing order by how many points they have scored against the spread so far this season.
As you can see, a number that sticks out is that the Colts have hit the Over on better than 62% of their games. On the other hand, the Broncos and Jaguars have hit the Over in just two of their respective games. This is something we may see bookmakers adjust to their opening points totals respectfully for each team.
Interestingly, certain cohorts of combined points totals set by the bookmakers have some hot and cold spots. Take a look at the below chart that shows the combined points totals expected by bookmakers and how frequently they hit the Over.
From this graphic, we can see that below 43 combined points have a slightly stronger chance of hitting, with 50% Overs so far this year. Then we have a cold spot from 43-47 point lines. These two cohorts are hitting the Over at a combined rate of just 39%. As we make our way up, we find a very hot spot from 47.5 to 49.5 combined points lines which hit at 51%. We run into another cold zone from 50-52 expected combined points, and then anything above 52.5 has regressed to a 47% clip. We will apply these trends to our Under/Over suggestions for Week 14. The 47.5 to 49.5 lines are the only ones to this point that we are suggesting to bet the Overs on blindly. The rest are dependent on the matchup and injuries.
With twelve weeks in the books, we have enough data to start building out more intricate data models. In Week 6 I rolled out NFL Power Rankings based on Adjusted Wins. Adjusted wins count a team’s wins plus the number of wins that the teams they beat have. What this does is it gives more credence to a team that beats a four-win team compared to a zero-win team. In Week 7 we also made a minor change to how we calculate adjusted wins. It is now counted as 1/4th of the opponent wins adjusted, this is to not give too much credit to a team having better or worse than expected weeks. However, at this point, we are going to be using this metric to identify teams that Vegas may be overrating based on past success, rather than being predictive of future wins.
The Arizona Cardinals reclaimed first place this week. They are followed up by the Patriots, Buccaneers, Packers, Chiefs, and Ravens rounding out the top-six teams in the NFL. The Adjusted Wins model stayed strong despite the chaotic Week 13, with a correlation of an R-Squared value of 0.91! That means that it is nearly a perfect predictor for Moneyline bets.
Points Differential also has a strong correlation with wins given its 0.85 R-squared value. Points For is a bit less strong and has jumped the shark as it has an R-squared value of 0.82.
We have developed a few new metrics to help us navigate through the data as well. First, see Pythagorean Wins. This is a metric that uses points differential to look at what teams are likely to regress season over season. We made a slight adjustment to the formula to look at how many games we expect a team to win in this new 17-game season. This metric has a very strong correlation to team wins with an R-Squared value of 0.85.
MONEYLINE PICKS
Here is how the model using Adjusted Wins says that you should bet the Moneyline for Week 14. Moneyline parlays are a great way to boost your potential winnings on wagers. Use this chart to pick and choose which games you would like to include on your Moneyline parlay for Week 14.
Based on the number of games that have large spreads (7-points and over), there is little payout in Moneyline parlays without sneaking a few clear underdogs in there.
HIGH CONFIDENCE PLAYS
These are the games that our model likes in projecting points differential in these games, and smoothing by our Adjusted Wins metric. These are the games with the highest level of confidence in our suggestions, but our suggestions will be based on current events along with what our model indicates. These will likely be marquee matchups, with heightened levels of information on the matchups. We want to focus the majority of our bankroll on these games.
SF(-1.5) @ CIN
San Francisco is favored despite heading to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals Sunday afternoon. These are the top two most effective Red Zone offenses, both converting at a 28.4% clip. While Ja’Marr Chase has had trouble producing downfield since the first seven weeks, Tee Higgins has stepped in as the Bengals’ efficient deep threat, meaning this Bengals offense is flexible. I like the Bengals to upset the Elijah Mitchell-less 49ers this week.
JAX(9) @ TEN
The Jaguars are 10-2 hitting the Under on their games this season. Ryan Tannehill is getting explosive plays (20+ yards) that make up only 6.4% of his total yardage, which is in the Mike White and Tyrod Taylor range. Bet the Under of 43.5 combined points before it gets bet down any further.
CHI(12.5) @ GB
Justin Fields is returning to play this week as he looks to extend his QB1 fantasy point-scoring streak when starting and finishing the game, which is currently at two-in-a-row. However, these Packers are getting after opposing quarterbacks at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL in terms of sacks plus turnovers. Take the Packers Moneyline.
BUF(3.5) @ TB
Tre’Davious White remains out for the Bills, so it yields the question of how will the Bills slow down Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, and Leonard Fournette? On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen struggles against the blitz and the Buccaneers are the most blitz-happy team in the NFL. I expect the Buccaneers to come out hot and then try to sit on the lead in the second half. I like the Buccaneers to cover the spread and will consider betting the Under at 53.5 combined points.
LV(10) @ KC
The Raiders are averaging only 18.8 points scored over their past five games. The Chiefs have scored under 23 points in five of their past six games. The combined 48 points scored may be too tough to reach for these struggling offenses. We are going to bet the Under despite the squeamish nature of taking the Under with the Chiefs’ formerly explosive offense on the field.
MIDDLE CONFIDENCE PLAYS
These are the games that we feel strongly about, but would not be surprised if the script flipped on us. These are the games that we may be working into teasers and parlays with bigger payouts if we hit.
NYG(10) @ LAC
I like the Chargers to keep up the offensive surge fueled by efficient down-field early-downs passing plays, but 10 points is a lot to lay. Last week against the Bengals was just their second double-digit victory of the season. I would tend to play the conservative Chargers Moneyline here.
LAR(2.5) @ ARI
Kyler Murray answered the bell about how healthy he is last week with two rushing scores. This week he plays against the best defensive player in the league in Aaron Donald. Kyler Murray has been successful in the NFL against pressure, as he is in the top-five in points per play when pressured. I expect Matthew Stafford’s injury-based production to continue and the Cardinals to win this game at home handily.
DAL(-4.5) @ WFT
The Washington Football Team is a defense that funnels towards the pass, which is what the Cowboys are doing well right now. Dak Prescott should be a must-start in fantasy this week. Washington has been controlling the clock in their last four games. However, I expect the Cowboys to maintain their third-most potent offense despite Washington being able to take away the running game.
LOW CONFIDENCE PLAYS
These are games that we are staying away from or putting less than 5% of our bankroll on. These games we have low confidence in picking and will provide suggestions if you are looking to add them into a parlay for huge payouts.
BAL(2.5) @ CLE
Both offenses are bottom-four in the last four weeks in terms of points per play run. This is a division-rivalry pick ‘em spot where I believe one team will get right for a playoff run. However, which team will it be?
DET(10) @ DEN
Detroit is getting 10 points when they have been very competitive, as they are 4-0 against the spread in the last four games. Still, it is too hard to trust either Jared Goff or Teddy Bridgewater to stick to the expected script. I would love to take the points, but that would lead to too stressful a Sunday betting on the Lions, so it’s a stay-away.
SEA(-8.5) @ HOU
Can the Seahawks beat anyone right now without getting lucky on fake punts? Eight and a half points are simply too much to lay on a game in which the teams have six combined wins this year. Davis Mills is now the Texans’ starting quarterback.
ATL(2.5) @ CAR
I like the Panthers here, they have a points differential that is 99 points more favorable than the Falcons. Only the Jets have allowed more points scored than the Falcons.
NO(-5.5) @ NYJ
Taysom Hill versus Zach Wilson is fun for nobody. I won’t be betting on this game because I have no intent to watch anything more than Elijah Moore highlights.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
You can read previous articles in this series here: Against the Spread: Week 1, Against the Spread: Week 2, Against the Spread: Week 3, Against the Spread: Week 4, Against the Spread: Week 5, Against the Spread: Week 6, Against the Spread: Week 7, Against the Spread: Week 9, Against the Spread: Week 10, Against the Spread: Week 11, Against the Spread: Week 12, Against the Spread: Week 13
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