Elijah Moore

Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts: A Unicorn Without Its Horn

A unicorn without its horn is still a very special horse. Its defining characteristic is lost, but it’s easy to see that the magic is still there. When I think of magic (and more importantly, unicorns), I don’t imagine white manes, rainbows, or holographic elementary school backpacks. I think of Kyle Pitts. His “magic” comes in the form of ridiculous workout metrics, delectable college production, and tantalizing size. His “horn” is his TE designation. Come with me on a different type of fantasy journey as we explore the fate of Kyle Pitts’ dynasty value if he were to lose his TE designation.

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Redraft Rankings Spotlight: WRs

Rankings are fun, but they don’t always tell the whole story. In this series, I’m taking a closer look at my 2022 redraft rankings, providing context for a handful of players that I have ranked well above or below ADP consensus. Today I’ll be diving into the WR position.

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Josh Downs: 2022 Devy Profile

Josh Downs was a four-star prospect out of Suwanee, Georgia who put together 187 receptions for 3,019 yards and 32 TDs over his final three high school football seasons. He starred both on the football field and the track, as he finished third in the state in triple jump and fourth in the state in long jump before giving up track to focus on football. Downs comes from a pedigree as well. His father was an RB in the NFL after playing at North Carolina State. Furthermore, his younger brother Caleb is ranked as the number one Safety in the nation and just committed to Alabama for the 2023 season.

Training Camp Takes: How Training Camps Impact Dynasty

The long football drought is finally over. A torrential downpour of offseason hype is flooding timelines as mandatory training camps are in full swing in the latter summer months. Preseason is fast approaching as teams ramp up in-house drills in preparation for the new campaign. Training camp reports can have a tangible effect on player value and, subsequently, the dynasty market as a whole. Today, we will analyze several recurring trends we see during the height of hype season and the impact those trends have in your Dynasty Leagues.

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Training Camp Primer: Part 1

Don’t have time to read every training camp update? DFF has your back with our Training Camp Primer series. We dive into team beat reporters and reporter tweets and differentiate between hype and reality. What rookies are impressing early? Who is ready to step into a larger role? What injuries occurred? We sift through it all to give you a leg up on your competition.

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The WR1 Rating Dynasty Rookie Wide Receiver Countdown (Post Draft Update): Part 2

For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. 

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson is a complete receiver who will command significant snaps and targets from day one. He is capable of playing outside and in the slot, and he’s a homerun threat on any given play. Wilson has the upside to produce multiple WR1 seasons, and, perhaps just as important, his top-ten draft slot and skillset make him an incredibly safe investment.

The WR1 Rating Dynasty Rookie Countdown: Part 2

For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. 

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: New York Jets

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). The big free agency splash moments are all but over at this point, and the NFL Draft is approaching quickly. We, as dynasty managers, need to be evaluating these offseason transactions and thinking about our roster adjustments every day. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “offseason edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the New York Jets. 

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Art of Arbitrage: Part 2

Dynasty fantasy football has often been compared to the stock market. While there are some flaws in this analogy, many of the general principles are the same. We want to “buy low” and “sell high.” We want to diversify our portfolio across multiple leagues to mitigate risk. We want a healthy mixture of upside and safety in our investments. And, we want to look for arbitrage opportunities.

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The WR1 Rating: Dynasty Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings Countdown (15-11)

Over the next few weeks, I will be revealing my annual WR1 prospect model ratings to help prepare DFF readers for their dynasty rookie drafts. This article covers the prospects ranked 15-11 in the model. For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. You may find an in-depth explanation of the model’s process and a glossary of what the metrics mean here. Before we get into the 2022 prospects, here are the top 20 all-time prospects in the model so you can see how effective it is at forecasting future fantasy value.

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The Pre-Draft WR1: Prospect Model Ratings

For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. If data-driven rankings are not for you, I suggest my colleague @DocFFFN’s wide receiver review from a film perspective. 

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NFL Combine: “Does Size Matter?” Wide Receiver Edition

Every off-season the Combine comes and Twitter is ablaze with all of the size narratives. “If he’s short I’m not drafting him.” “If his BMI is too low I’m not drafting him.” “I don’t care what their size is, if they produce I like them.” “Size doesn’t matter!” “Size DOES matter!” What we do not see during this time is much real evidence with actual context. We are just given narratives or one-off examples of outliers. “Cooper Kupp ran a 4.65 and he just had the best WR season ever, 40 times don’t matter.” “DeVonta Smith has a BMI of 22.5 but he won the Heisman, I’m drafting him.” Today, my goal is not to fight for one side or the other. It is to look at the real numbers, with an unbiased eye and determine if these NFL combine metrics matter for fantasy football.

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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 9

Dynasty Superflex Startup Mock: Drafting From The 1.03

I recently had the pleasure of joining Paul Patterson (@fantasyfreezer) in a dynasty startup mock draft in preparation for new leagues this offseason. The draft order was appointed by each user rather than randomized. Usually, I prefer to draft in the 1.10-1.12 range and stack two top-tier dynasty assets on the short turn. Choosing to select from the 1.03, I deliberately put myself in a position of unfamiliarity to understand the draft board with a different view. Here’s what I found out.

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DFF Dynasty SF PPR Mock Draft Review: Positional Breakdown

For all but two teams, the NFL season is over. There are no more lineups to set or waiver claims to make, which can only mean one thing: the dynasty offseason is upon us. At this time of year, which is really like its own game within the game, mock drafts are incredibly valuable. They help us to understand how the public perception of players (say that five times fast) has shifted over the past several months. Even if you don’t plan on joining any new startups, a mock draft can help you to identify players–or even whole positions–that are over or undervalued by the community. Since I recently completed a startup mock draft with some of my friends here at DFF, I thought I would share some of my observations with you.

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Fantasy Hits and Misses

Dynasty Market Sweep: Episode 2

Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight.

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Week 15 Dynasty Buy/Sell

Hello, fellow fantasy managers. I am Chris Miles, The Draft Director, and welcome to the first installment of my Dynasty Buy/Sells. I will be helping you determine what players value you should be taking advantage of in your dynasty leagues as we approach the fantasy playoffs and offseason. If someone’s value is too high I might tell you to sell. If I think their value will decrease soon, he could also be a sell. I will give my reasoning for why each player falls in a certain category. There will be advice for both contenders and rebuilders so whichever boat you’re in you can get information from these articles. I will attempt to have the format consistently be two buys and two sells for both rebuilds and contenders, but that may increase or decrease depending on the week. 

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Against The Spread: Week 14

What is up DFF Army? It’s that time of the week for us to provide some insightful Week 13 suggestions. Although new information always causes us to reconsider things, we now have enough information to drive decision-making. As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups.

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Rookie Stock Report: Final

I’m not saying Mac Jones is the next Patrick Mahomes or even Justin Herbert. But he’s now a solid prospect with the potential to have a very safe floor for a long time. Think Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr. Neither of them makes you feel giddy but you don’t want to undersell a sneaky QB1 or high-end QB2. Mac Jones may not be a Lamar Jackson-type fantasy darling but he is a  quality “real” quarterback that you shouldn’t worry about losing his job anytime soon. The Patriots are back in the playoff hunt and much of that success is due to the rookie’s success.

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Psych’s Picks: Week 13

Greetings, #DFFArmy, and welcome. My name’s Matt Ward, or as many of you know me from social media, Psych Ward. I’ll be filling in for Paul in this week’s edition of “Psych’s Picks.” Every week, Paul lists his top starts and sits with the keys to success for each player. I want to add: I will personally be favouring and fading these players in my matchups.

Now, with the introduction formalities out of the way, let’s dive into the players I believe will make or break your fantasy lineups in Week 13.

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