The season continues moving along, and another DFS main slate comes this Sunday. This slate is a very different animal to tackle with one game with a significantly higher total, a Monday Night Football misprice (I will explain), and even a tropical cyclone moving through the eastern United States.
The running back market in Dynasty has experienced another shakeup. The Los Angeles Rams have traded Cam Akers to the Minnesota Vikings. We knew on Sunday there was a real possibility of him being traded this week after he was a healthy scratch, but now we have some actual answers. So now we have to figure out what this means, not only for Cam Akers but also for Alexander Mattison and Kyren Williams.
Welcome to the first edition of Vet Values for the 2023 season. Today, I am bringing you some guys who will get you fantasy points despite their cheaper price tag. In Dynasty Fantasy Football, we value youth, as we should. However, this sometimes creates an inefficiency in the market. These are the guys that won’t make your roster look good when you show your friends on Twitter. These are the guys that score you fantasy points and win you championships.
Our resident DFS Dominator @DougHarrelson is back with his ~FREE~ Week 2 plays to earn you a little extra cheddar during Sunday’s slate.
Welcome to Week 1 DFS, and congrats once again for making it through the offseason. Week 1 DFS is one of the most fun slates of the year for many reasons. Firstly, we have a lot of people playing DFS that will not be in future weeks. These people are putting in lineups without correlations or because they like this guy or that guy, and their lineups are dead on arrival. They are doing us all a favor by paying the rake for us. Secondly, the slate is made so far in advance of Week 1 that there are a bunch of silly good values. So many so that none of them become too chalky. You can build any lineups you want. Let’s build some GPP-winning lineups, shall we?
This season, I will be giving you DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) for every Sunday’s main slate. With that being said, it would be difficult to write it every week if I had to derive all this stuff from first principles before I could even touch the individual week at hand. If you are referencing this article for a particular term that you are unaware of, please scroll to the bottom of this article for an appendix of commonly used DFS terms. If there is a term in a future article that you do not understand, please reach out to me on Twitter.
Well, everyone, pat yourself on the back. We have made it through another preseason. In nine days, we will be live. All the time you put into the offseason making trades, draft picks, and waiver claims will come to fruition. Enjoy these next few months of the football season. Before you know it, we will watch the Super Bowl and begin another offseason. The game of football and Dynasty fantasy football has had a massive impact on my life, and if you are reading this, it probably has on you as well. We sometimes get too lost in the weeds and forget to enjoy it. Remember that it is a game, and games are meant to be fun.
We witnessed history this preseason—the end of an era. The Ravens preseason dynasty is finally over, brought to an end by the Washington Commanders in the greatest preseason game of all time. I’m sure I’m not being hyperbolic by saying this at all.
Another week of preseason means another week of preseason overreactions. Twitter was full of highlights and discussions about who ran with which group during the games and who had the night off. Amongst all this, we must figure out what is an overreaction and what is real. We could go through many more players than the ones here. However, in the interest of not writing a book, I have cut down to the 12 I found most interesting to talk about. If I don’t get to your boy specifically, I do apologize. I am also not getting to talk about Nathan Rourke potentially having the play of the year while we are still in preseason. Without further ado, let’s break down these overreactions from the weekend.
Thursday Night marked a noteworthy night on the calendar for NFL fans across the globe—the first NFL preseason game. It was the first chance to throw in some DFS lineups, the first chance to lose money on the Jets (-1.5) when a missed pass interference call could have saved you (I’m still bitter), and for our purposes, the first chance to see some of these rookies in action. Every preseason we are so excited about anything new that it is easy to overreact. I can still remember last year with everyone concerned over Josh Jacobs playing so many snaps in the Hall of Fame game. Don’t worry about it though, because we here at DFF are here to help you sort out what is an overreaction and what is the actual takeaway.
After dreams of DeAndre Hopkins becoming a member of either the Kansas City Chiefs or Buffalo Bills, we must now face the reality that DeAndre Hopkins will be a member of the Tennessee Titans in 2023. Being from Nashville myself, my news feed has tons of photo edits of him wearing the number 10 jersey in the two-tone blue. Opinions are all over the place as this is one player changing teams that is a massive challenge to evaluate on a dime. An offense centered around Derrick Henry doesn’t present itself as the most wide receiver-friendly offense from a fantasy football perspective. We also have the memories of WRs like Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, and Julio Jones coming to the Titans at the end of their careers to put up minimal production. So much to unpack here with this signing. Not only how the Titans impact DeAndre Hopkins but also how Hopkins impacts the rest of the Titans players.
As we inch closer to training camp, the fantasy hive-mind begins sorting out how they feel rosters and depth charts will settle by the time we get the regular season. Some spots are easy. Patrick Mahomes will be the QB1 for the Kansas City Chiefs. Some spots are much trickier. The New York Giants WR room is one of the trickiest in the league. A combination of middling veterans and unproven youth cause this group to be underwhelming. Despite no true superstars, someone will have to catch passes from Daniel Jones. Who will it be? Knowing the answer now will give you a massive edge over your league mates.
I am a massive fan of veterans in Dynasty Fantasy Football, thanks to their discounted price. A brief glance through my previous writing will reveal this. One downside of these players is that they are nearing a drop in value, and you may not be able to get a return on your initial investment. If we look at Dynasty as a purely stock market game, this is a complete disaster. However, Dynasty Fantasy Football is not a stock market despite having some elements of a stock market within it. The way you win in your Dynasty league is ultimately by scoring more points than your opponents. Players hold value based on their potential to score fantasy points for us in the future. But after those points are scored, a player will often not return to their previous value. When should we ignore conventional stock market strategy and hold on to an asset even if we know it will depreciate in value? What players should we take the loss on?
It has become common knowledge in the Dynasty community that one should either compete for a championship or try to acquire future assets and secure a higher draft spot. While many can tell when it is time to “blow it up” and begin rebuilding on a team that was once a contender, the part often unmentioned is when to go from a rebuilding team to winning the championship. I have experienced the joy of earning the 1.01 as my rookie pick and winning a championship the following season, but I have also seen many teams stuck in the perpetual rebuild. Their roster and assets look great in any roster evaluation tool, but we aren’t here to have good-looking rosters. We are here to win championships. So how do we turn the corner?
I speak for everyone when I say, it took long enough. This was a move that felt inevitable at one point and then doubtful at another but eventually, the deal was done. I must give credit to the Packers’ front office for the stones it took to hold fast waiting for a deal that had to happen. Their ability to hold got them the best possible return they were ever going to get for Rodgers. The Jets needed that deal to go through as well, given their roster is ready to compete with only Zach Wilson in the quarterback room prior to the trade. Alas, we are not here to pour praise upon Brian Gutekunst (Packers GM), we are here to understand the impact this move has on all of our Dynasty assets.
Michael Mayer was drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders, becoming the third Tight End and 35th overall player in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Zay Flowers was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, becoming the third Wide Receiver and 22nd overall player in the 2023 NFL Draft.
As the newest ranking team member here at DFF, I have asked myself this question quite a bit over the past couple of weeks: Who should I rank higher? These lead to fantastic conversations in league, text, and social media chats. The back and forth is where some of the richest discussions of fantasy football can occur. In particular, in the Dynasty space where a player’s value could vary depending on if the team is a contender or rebuilding, and also on positional need. Today’s discussion is not easily solved by either of those metrics though. All three of these guys are talented young WRs that work well whether you are contending now or looking at the long-term picture. I would be happy to have a roster with any one of them or even better all three of them but in a startup, where would I go? Let’s dig into these incredibly talented WRs.
As Dynasty Fantasy Football Managers, this time of year is one of the most exciting. The NFL Draft is upon us and we finally get to have landing spots for the rookies we have spent the last few months evaluating and debating. For handicappers, this week also provides a golden opportunity, betting on the NFL Draft. The sportsbooks are working with all the same information we are this week and this week is notoriously bad for the sportsbooks. As Dynasty managers, we have a massive edge in this market thanks to our time spent studying film and analytics. This market is also extremely volatile to news and reporting so be prepared for lines to have massive swings much more so than typical in-season wagers. Line changes can occur for several different reasons but a bet I may like here at one price may not apply if the juice (gambling odds) changes. All of our odds for today will be provided by FanDuel Sportsbook from April 24th and 12:00 PM EST.
It is time to rethink how to approach “buy or sell” articles. The simple reasons to buy and reasons to sell are followed by a verdict that ignores roster construction. It becomes a stock market, which in theory there is a lot of that to Dynasty Fantasy Football. Still, I also want to win championships, and poorly constructed rosters that have won all these trades but still have massive holes on their roster are not the ones that pull that off. The season gets messy, we need depth, and we players across all position groups to be successful. Not just winning a bunch of trades to have seven startable WRs while we are rolling out some 3rd down back as our RB1 while my WR5 scores all these points on the bench. Our subject today Brock Purdy, feels more nuanced discussion than a simple buy or sell discussion would provide. Context is important and for our purposes, roster construction is our context.
