A much-overlooked aspect of dynasty football is value comparison, or comparing the values of dynasty players to redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking “well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in dynasty than redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYG), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in redraft or dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET), who in redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in dynasty he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over nine parts (one part for each division and a rookie roundup after the draft), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to redraft, or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.
Some ground rules – so this series doesn’t take centuries, I’ll be evaluating one QB, one RB, one TE, and two WRs from each team, giving a total of 20 players every article. I’ll be posting their redraft ADP (sourced from Underdog) and their dynasty ADP (sourced from AdeikoADP, @Adeiko_FF on Twitter). Since there isn’t a large enough sample size of Superflex ADP, I’ll be evaluating by positional rank, not true ADP. For example, if I state that Patrick Mahomes’ ADP is QB1, that does not mean he is selected at the 1.01 in redraft, that means he is the first QB taken off the board.
I’ll then give my pick – whether the player’s value lies closer to his redraft ADP, his dynasty ADP, or somewhere in the middle.
Let’s hop in.
Baltimore Ravens
QB: Lamar Jackson
Redraft ADP: QB6
Dynasty ADP: QB8
- Kicking this off with Lamar, who I believe is undervalued in both dynasty and redraft. Understandably, his ADP hasn’t stabilized in redraft considering we’re not exactly sure if he’s going to sit out this year, be traded, or play on the tag. However, there is no excuse for his dynasty ADP to be so low.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
RB: J.K. Dobbins
Redraft ADP: RB20
Dynasty ADP: RB17
- There isn’t much difference between Dobbins’ redraft and dynasty ADPs here, though I’m surprised by how high his ADP is in both. For that reason, I think his value lies closer to redraft than dynasty. His upside will always be capped in a Lamar Jackson-led offense,, he’s coming off of a horrendous knee injury, he doesn’t catch passes, and he’s going into his fourth season now.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
TE: Mark Andrews
Redraft ADP: TE2
Dynasty ADP: TE3
- Fantasy gamers have appropriately valued Andrews in both dynasty and redraft; it’s a coin flip for me between Travis Kelce (TE – KC) and Andrews, so TE3 is okay with me.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR1: Rashod Bateman
Redraft ADP: WR43
Dynasty ADP: WR35
- I think this is our first discrepancy here, but I lean toward dynasty ADP for a couple of reasons. First, Bateman posted some fantastic peripherals in his few games last season, with 23% TPRR and a mind-boggling 2.38 YPRR; I chase peripherals, not counting stats. Second, Bateman is still not even 23 years old. Third, there’s no reason to think, besides Lamar possibly not playing this season for the Baltimore Ravens, that Bateman won’t have a productive season. I think his redraft ADP needs to adjust to a number closer to his dynasty ADP.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR2: Devin Duvernay
Redraft ADP: Unlisted
Dynasty ADP: WR85
- While I can’t compare his ADPs here, since he doesn’t even get drafted in redraft, I’ll just give some thoughts on Duvernay in dynasty – sell for literally anything, even a fourth. His peripherals are horrendous (13% TS, 13% TPRR, 1.15 YPRR) and he’s nothing more than a roster clogger. Because of this, I have no choice but to say his redraft ADP is more accurate than his dynasty – he simply has no reason to be drafted.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
Cincinnati Bengals
QB: Joe Burrow
Redraft ADP: QB5
Dynasty ADP: QB3
- Just when Burrow finally started being worth his price, he goes up in value by leapfrogging Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) turning him back into a sell. Redraft takes this one.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
RB: Joe Mixon
Redraft ADP: RB23
Dynasty ADP: RB22
- I think this value is perfect for Mixon in both dynasty and redraft. He’s 26 so he’s staring right at the age cliff, however, he just posted 17 ppg last season which isn’t to be ignored, even with his future team being murky. If he stays on the Bengals and can benefit from the five targets/game he earned last season, he’s worth the late-round pick in certain builds. I don’t see his workload increasing, but this all seems to be priced into his value. There are other players around his ADP I’d rather have, but as for his position amongst RBs, I think he’s appropriately priced. Don’t expect his value to increase, however.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
TE: ?*
WR1: Ja’Marr Chase
Redraft ADP: WR2
Dynasty ADP: WR2
- Nothing to say here: perfectly priced.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR2: Tee Higgins
Redraft ADP: WR12
Dynasty ADP: WR8
- There’s a tier of dynasty WRs who I believe are all interchangeable, and Tee Higgins lies toward the bottom of that tier. You can make the argument he’s the dynasty WR6 or the WR10 and I’d hear you out. His value lies somewhere in the middle of these two ADPs.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
*at the time of writing this, Hayden Hurst (TE – ATL) has signed with the Atlanta Falcons, leaving the Bengals with no tight end.
Cleveland Browns
QB: Deshaun Watson
Redraft ADP: QB9
Dynasty ADP: QB9
- Nothing much to say here, he’s properly priced. I believe personally his value will increase in both redraft and dynasty by this time next year, but both ADPs nailed it for now.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
RB: Nick Chubb
Redraft ADP: RB9
Dynasty ADP: RB12
- At this point in his career, we know what Chubb’s floor is and what his ceiling is. He simply doesn’t catch enough passes and he’s only continuing to get older. I think his dynasty ADP is closer to how he should be valued.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
TE: David Njoku
Redraft ADP: TE9
Dynasty ADP: TE8
- I was pleasantly surprised to see how close these ADPs were. I think his dynasty ADP is perfect for him considering he’s (somehow) still only 26 and posted some pretty decent peripherals last season (19% TS, 20% TPRR, 1.55 YPRR). Furthermore, he’s attached to the best QB of his career for the foreseeable future. He didn’t light the world on fire, but he’s not priced as if he did.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Amari Cooper
Redraft ADP: WR17
Dynasty ADP: WR32
- I think a lot of dynasty managers seem to be under the impression that Amari Cooper is older than he is, when in fact he’s only 28 years old and coming off a season in which he posted a 26% TS as the WR17 in PPG. His value definitely lies closer to redraft ADP.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
WR2: Elijah Moore
Redraft ADP: WR54
Dynasty ADP: WR44
- At the time of writing, Moore has been on the Cleveland Browns for one day, so his ADPs haven’t properly adjusted yet, so I’ll just talk about his value rather than his ADP. If there’s any late-round WR I’d buy for this price, it would be Moore. However, if you can sell for a mid-second-round pick, I’d do that too. He’s most likely a roster clogger at this point in his career, but his price reflects that.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
Pittsburgh Steelers
QB: Kenny Pickett
Redraft ADP: QB26
Dynasty ADP: QB17
- Redraft has this one-handedly. Pickett wasn’t good last season, he wasn’t a good prospect, and he probably will not be good. I would sell for any other players around his ADP. This is an example of a player only having value because he’s young.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
RB: Najee Harris
Redraft ADP: RB14
Dynasty ADP: RB9
- Najee’s discrepancy in value here is purely due to the veterans he goes in front of in dynasty being drafted ahead of him in redraft. His value lies somewhere in the middle, but I find myself buying Najee at price lately. However, if you want a 24.5-year-old first-round running back on your roster, I’d trade him for Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) instead (yes, they’re the same age).
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
TE: Pat Freiermuth
Redraft ADP: TE10
Dynasty ADP: TE7
- I think his dynasty ADP is closer to his true value than his redraft. However, Freiermuth lies in that weird range of tight ends who don’t really matter, but his price reflects that.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Diontae Johnson
Redraft ADP: WR38
Dynasty ADP: WR33
- Dynasty value as Diontae is criminally undervalued. He just set the NFL record for receiving yards without a touchdown. Once some of that TD variance goes his way, he’ll far outperform his ADP.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR2: George Pickens
Redraft ADP: WR36
Dynasty ADP: WR24
- I think we’ve been spoiled lately with rookie wide receivers and have forgotten that wide receivers used to develop over the course of two to three years. Pickens could be good but his peripherals don’t reflect that. I think he’s overvalued personally and seeing what you can fetch for him right now I’d be trading him away. His value should be closer to redraft.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
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