Since entering the league in 2013, Keenan Allen has been one of the most reliable wide receivers in football from a real and a fantasy football perspective. His savvy route-running and soft hands make him a trusted target for the various signal callers he has worked with, and a weekly starter for your dynasty team. He has spent his entire career up to this point with one team but the rumor mill suggests that he could become a cap casualty for the Los Angeles Chargers. This uncertainty going into the offseason has made his value difficult to gauge from a dynasty football perspective. Where there is uncertainty can be scary for some dynasty managers but clever managers know this can also create buying windows. So with the case of Keenan Allen, should we be buying? Or should we be selling? Let’s take a deeper look.
Why You Should Sell
Father Time remains the only true unbeaten in all professional sports. Keenan Allen is already 30 years old and will be 31 years on April 27th. Typically we start to see a drop off at wide receiver once the player reaches their later 20s/early 30s. At this stage of his career, we can likely not expect him to work as much over the top so his big place upside might be limited. If his quarterback is not Justin Herbert next year, the idea of big plays seems even more difficult. It is not like he is going to get an improvement in the offseason at that position.
So with the lack of big plays coming due to age and the likely drop off in quarterback play, perhaps we can rely on touchdowns or red zone production to get us to a decent finish in fantasy? No such luck with Keenan Allen, despite being in the league for 10 seasons, Allen’s career high in the TD reception department is a meager eight TDs. In eight of his seasons, he only managed six touchdowns or less. The combination of a lack of big plays and a lack of touchdown upside makes it difficult to see a path for him to be a WR1 or high-end WR2 in fantasy. There are plenty of receivers in the same value range with a lot higher upside than the veteran slot receiver.
Why You Should Buy
If you want a reason to buy Keenan Allen, just look at 2017 through 2021. In PPR scoring Allen finished as WR3, WR12, WR6, WR14, and WR10. His 796 receptions and 9,287 put him fourth amongst active players in receptions and ninth in receiving yards. Even better though, his production isn’t weighted because of a couple of monster games the way some of the big play receivers are. His production is something you can count on week in and week out to put points in your WR spot every single week come hell or high water. This kind of consistent production at that level is so difficult to find.
The new landing spot could be scary but let us consider teams that could be interested in his services. There are a few teams with young QBs that are showing promise but could use a bit more weaponry on the outside. Think Daniel Jones (assuming the Giants keep him) and Justin Fields. Wherever he ends up will be a place of desperate need at the position or else why go after Allen at all? He also can pick and choose a spot that makes sense for him and it seems extremely unlikely that he finds himself with a team that would not utilize his skill set, especially if you know how prideful Keenan Allen the person is. He will want to be somewhere where he can contribute and win games. He is not gonna want to be part of a rebuild or a team with poor quarterback play.
Finally, another consideration is his price tag at this stage of his career. Currently WR29 (Sleeper ADP) right now, Allen is in the range with guys like Jakobi Meyers, Elijah Moore, Courtland Sutton, Gabriel Davis, and Wan’Dale Robinson. A guy with this much production in his career that can be acquired for a very manageable price tag is a huge find for your contending dynasty team that just needs a little bit more to get over the top.
Conclusion
This advice obviously only applies to contenders but Keenan Allen is a fantastic buy right now. Addressing the concerns is pretty easy to do. Yes, he is getting up there in age but his game is not built on being a freak athlete but rather on precision route running and fantastic hands. These things age a lot better than a guy that outruns everyone or fights over contested catches. As far as the touchdowns go, well he has never needed touchdowns to put up fantasy points so I do not see why that has to change. This may not apply to the poor souls playing a non-PPR format but for those of us (I assume the overwhelming majority) in PPR leagues, Allen does not need to catch touchdowns to help you. All of this coupled with his discounted price tag due to the uncertainty makes Keenan Allen someone you should be targeting right now.
Thanks so much for reading, if you want to discuss more my DMs on Twitter are open, find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, Redraft, Devy, and IDP.
