After an exciting rookie year with the Jets, Elijah Moore was a dynasty darling going into the 2022 season. The drafting of Garrett Wilson was expected to open up the field even more for the talented second-year man out of Ole Miss. Unfortunately for dynasty managers that roster Elijah Moore, the second-year leap was not present. Instead, we were disappointed by a major sophomore slump. His dynasty value took a massive drop off as well as it appeared he was on the outside looking in as far as the Jets offense was concerned. Losing out on slot snaps to the likes of Braxton Berrios. I feared for my Elijah Moore shares if I was going to have to wait for him to get on a second contract just to finally get some return on my investment. On Wednesday, March 22nd, Elijah Moore was traded to the Cleveland Browns with a pick exchange.
Before we dive deeper into this trade, I want to go back to Elijah Moore coming out of college. Elijah Moore was a favorite of film guys like myself. Soft hands, the ability to break tackles despite the small frame, and the ability to get open on any route whether short, intermediate, or long. The Ole Miss Rebels lined him up everywhere and got him the ball often even in the run game despite his small stature. He often played much tougher than his size would have suggested. His tape looked like everything you could want in an NFL slot wide receiver and more. That and the recent history of Ole Miss Receivers like A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf tearing it up made him an interesting prospect in the 2021 rookie draft season. Finally, the draft capital and landing spot were perfect (we thought so at the time at least) as the 34th overall pick to a team that had drafted a quarterback (Zach Wilson) with the second overall pick. All this combined to give him a draft range in rookie dynasty drafts between WR3 and WR5. That may not sound exciting but remember this was a draft class with Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle. It was tough to crack that top tier with guys like that with top 20 draft capital.
After an up and down time in New York though it is time to look at Elijah Moore with the Cleveland Browns. Last year felt a bit like a mulligan for the Cleveland Browns with Deshaun Watson returning from his off-the-field issues and suspension late in the season and never really got much of a rhythm going to close out the season. While it has been a few years since Watson was the elite quarterback he was at the beginning of his career, I think it is reasonable to at least expect him to be better this season. As far as competition for targets is concerned, it feels like there is just enough to draw some coverage without so much that it affects his ability to get targets. I still assume that Amari Cooper will be the WR1 in the offense and the primary target. David Njoku is a unique athlete at tight end that will get his targets but beyond that, no Browns’ pass catchers are of major note to me. Donovan Peoples-Jones has shown some flashes but has yet to become reliable on a week-to-week basis and David Bell is not a player I was high on coming out of college. Bell’s athletic profile is quite weak by NFL standards.
I am trying to control my excitement level for Moore with the Browns here but I think it is a great fit for him. I will admit I have been high on him since he came out of college so this move has me extremely excited. There is still some potential for this not to work though, so I will play devil’s advocate for a moment. Getting traded while still on a rookie deal is not something that excites me as a dynasty manager. If he is not a fit here then his stock will likely never recover in the dynasty community regardless of what happens in free agency. The Browns are also a team that likes to run the ball and play with two tight ends while Elijah Moore has the profile of a slot receiver primarily. He did have a lot of success in his rookie season with the Jets lining up on the outside because of his speed down the field but in an ideal world, he would work inside more often than out. With all the 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs) there may be too much traffic inside for him to succeed. All of that being said, I still think an 80+ catch season is a very real possibility for Elijah Moore. The talent and upside outweigh the risk in my eyes.
As with all of these moves though, the player added to a new offense is not the only one affected. The biggest winner outside of Moore himself has to be Deshaun Watson, though an improved season for Watson may not just be because of Moore. Another weapon to go along with Njoku and Cooper that can work on all three levels could give this Browns’ offense a huge boost though and with it, Watson will rise as well. A top-5 season at his position is not out of the question, he has done it before. I know a lot of you do not wish to see Watson succeed due to his person and I completely understand that. I am not a huge fan of him myself but we have to be objective when talking fantasy football and the upside Watson has with these weapons cannot be ignored. This is not a terrible time to buy in on Watson if you missed the several-year drop-off in value. My guess is that if you wanted to roster Deshaun Watson though, you likely already do.
The next piece to address is Amari Cooper, the current WR1 for the Browns. As much as I love Elijah Moore as a player, I do believe he profiles better as a secondary target than a primary one. Let Elijah Moore be Robin while Amari Cooper is Batman. To stay on brand, he is the WR1 the Browns deserve but not the one they need. Amari Cooper has always been a fascinating asset in dynasty circles, another WR traded while still on his rookie deal. Despite all the differing opinions on Cooper though he has continued to produce and managers were quite pleased with Amari Cooper’s WR10 finish last season. Despite no true WR2 to go with him and a mixed bag of quarterback play throughout the season. Adding Elijah Moore will force defenses to show some more respect elsewhere on the field. I see this as a bump, albeit slight, for Amari Cooper. Given his age, he is an excellent buy for a contender.
The David Njoku part is a bit more tricky. I do think one of the reasons he was peppered with targets last year was due to a lack of options at WR. Tight end is such a tricky position though that I am not sure you should even be moving him in your rankings at the position at this point. As we all know there really is just Travis Kelce and then all the other tight ends. If Njoku is your favorite from that next group, then continue to draft him and throw him in on trades. I am more interested in Waller, Engram, Dulcich, and McBride at his ADP right now though.
For the rest of the pass catchers, this will hurt them quite a bit. There is only so much volume to go around. As I have mentioned before I am not a fan of David Bell so it was only a matter of time before someone better came along to take his snaps and targets away entirely. Donovan Peoples-Jones is harder. He will have some involvement for sure and with his big play ability he will have some weeks that he finishes with big numbers. I just don’t feel confident that this will be a consistent thing on a week-to-week basis though. He picks up some extra value in dynasty best ball leagues that are becoming more and more popular but I will have a tough time starting him in more traditional-style dynasty leagues. The window to sell has likely closed though. As positive as this move is for Moore’s value, Peoples-Jones takes the hardest hit. At this point, the move is to hold. If there is an injury you can either start him or trade him. There is also a possibility that he is the WR2 and Moore is the WR3. I do not see that likely but I would rather hold on for that possibility or an injury rather than trade Peoples-Jones for 2.11 (if you could even get that) and be throwing a dart in the draft.
Coming full circle on Elijah Moore now, I would be trying to package multiple seconds to acquire him but would easily pay a late 1st to make it happen. I have a tier drop-off after the first seven on my board in this year’s rookie class but I figure at least one drafter will go off-script and take a player lower on my board so ideally a pick 1.09 or later will get the deal done. While there is some amount of risk that is inherent in fantasy football and the upside is well worth the risk.
Thanks so much for reading, if you want to discuss more my DMs on Twitter are open, find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, Redraft, Devy, and IDP.
