It is time to rethink how to approach “buy or sell” articles. The simple reasons to buy and reasons to sell are followed by a verdict that ignores roster construction. It becomes a stock market, which in theory there is a lot of that to Dynasty Fantasy Football. Still, I also want to win championships, and poorly constructed rosters that have won all these trades but still have massive holes on their roster are not the ones that pull that off. The season gets messy, we need depth, and we players across all position groups to be successful. Not just winning a bunch of trades to have seven startable WRs while we are rolling out some third down back as our RB1 while my WR5 scores all these points on the bench. Our subject today Brock Purdy, feels more nuanced discussion than a simple buy or sell discussion would provide. Context is important and for our purposes, roster construction is our context.
Me with the current format of buy and sell articles
Currently ranked at 159 and QB32 on our Superflex TE premium rankings here at Dynasty Football Factory, Brock Purdy’s ranking suggests a QB3 in those leagues. This puts him behind guys like Jimmy Garopollo, Desmond Ridder, Jordan Love, and Ryan Tannehill but in front of guys like Baker Mayfield, Sam Howell, and Hendon Hooker. Last season Purdy took over for the injured Garoppollo who had taken over for the injured Trey Lance. Purdy went from Mr. Irrelevant to one game away from the biggest stage in all of sports. In the process, Purdy has earned the backing of the organization to get the first crack at the starting job this season. He is currently lower in rankings than his backup at the moment, Trey Lance which is interesting and shows that Dynasty managers believe that Lance will either become the starter in San Fransico or end up playing quarterback somewhere else. It also speaks to how enticing Lance’s ceiling is.
There are a lot of things to like about acquiring an asset like Brock Purdy. The offense he is in happens to be one of the most QB and fantasy football-friendly offenses in the modern era. Not to mention some of the best offensive weapons in all of football and a good offensive line. The offense is good for 10 completions for 120 yards and a touchdown or two on throws completed behind the line of scrimmage. We also have to consider that Brock Purdy is only 23 years old. The potential of having an asset in Dynasty Fantasy Football for 10+ seasons is extremely exciting. That is a lifetime in a Dynasty league. Despite his ranking suggesting a QB3 value in fantasy, his numbers in that offense were more mid-range QB2 and helpful down the stretch for fantasy teams.
There are also some negatives to consider here as well before we dive into our different roster situations though. The first one that comes to mind for me is draft capital. Yes, I know Tom Brady was drafted 199th overall and became the greatest quarterback in the history of the game. However, statistically speaking, draft capital matters. At all positions. At quarterback though? It matters even more. This same kind of thinking had people believing that Gardner Minshew was an insane value in startup drafts a couple of years ago. These players are fun to root for and sometimes we have someone break through but for the most part, good quarterbacks are found in the early rounds. There is a bit of a self-fulfilling nature to that kind of thing of course where it’s easier to move off of a guy that was a smaller investment on draft day but what is to stop that from happening to Purdy? He is also not going to give you the same ceiling/floor combination as the guys that use their legs. In the six regular season games where Purdy played a majority of the snaps at quarterback, he managed to accumulate 10 rushing yards. We also have to mention he is coming off a very serious elbow surgery this offseason and there have been questions about him starting the season on time.
Case-by-Case Buy/Sell
So I wanted to look at the different types of rosters that may have or want to acquire Brock Purdy. I broke it down to just these three cases but all are written from a Superflex perspective. Rebuilding is the same no matter what but I do feel like QB depth makes the question very different for a contending team in a Superflex league so they are divided as such with the case of Purdy either part of your rotation or would be if acquired or the other case where he would not be a player you would need for depth purposes.
Rebuild
The appeal of quarterbacks because of their long-term value is high for our rebuilding rosters so I may shock you when I say this but I would be willing to make a move. If Purdy ever loses his status as a starter, his trade value is completely gone. You will never get a return close to anything you can get right now. Right now I want to try and move him specifically for a 2024 first-round pick. This year the late first round has me less excited than many other years but if I cannot do better I would be willing to move Purdy for a 2023 late first. Maybe I can grab one of these RBs and flip them in season for a 2024 first. I really don’t want to wait until we get closer to the season though. If his injury causes him to miss time it could cost him the job and the window to sell will be slammed shut.
Contender (Not Needing QB Depth)
So this would be the situation if Purdy was your QB4 or would be should you happen to trade for him. For teams that don’t need the asset in question, this becomes a question of asset management. At that point, I just want to sell. While just trading Purdy for a 2024 first would also be something I’m glad to do in this spot, the move I really want to make is trying to grab a piece to fill a hole on my roster elsewhere. If I’m weak at WR maybe reach out for a guy like Elijah Moore. Purdy could also be used during the rookie draft to move into the late first to grab a RB that I like in that spot. Either way, use the leverage that he is a starting QB in a Superflex league to try and get the most you can out of him.
Contender (Needing QB Depth)
Despite the fact that I have been pushing to sell him in the previous two scenarios, I would happily buy him if I only have two starting quarterbacks on my roster. The general rule of thumb in our Superflex leagues is you want three starting quarterbacks on your contending rosters. More is fine but having two is a difficult route to manage and you have to handcuff your quarterbacks or keep your fingers crossed that you are healthy in the playoffs. Having the insurance QB3 gives you more insulation from the risk of injury during the NFL season. Purdy is the perfect asset for that role. Not overly expensive, you can likely get the deal done with a late 2023 first or maybe even two seconds if they are high enough. While there is certainly some risk of him losing the job or being unable to start the season (the reasons I want to sell otherwise), I think it is worth it for a contending team that has everything else in place to try and get that QB depth. I think it is a bit of an overpay but I’m here to win championships, not to win trades.
Perhaps going forward I may revert back to the past methods of buy/sell articles but from a game theory perspective, this situation felt like it didn’t deserve such a blanket answer. While I would be happy to trade away Purdy in many situations right now due to his limited upside, low draft capital, and potential to end up a backup long-term, I think there are many cases where he makes for an excellent trade target. Sometimes it is important to know when to abandon the formula.
Thanks so much for reading, if you want to discuss more reach out to me on Twitter, I am @DougHarrelson on there. Thanks also for your membership to DFF! For those signed up for an annual membership, you can always reach the rest of the DFF team and me in our Discord server! Exclusively for annual memberships only. Sign up today!
