The long football drought is finally over. A torrential downpour of offseason hype is flooding timelines as mandatory training camps are in full swing in the latter summer months. Preseason is fast approaching as teams ramp up in-house drills in preparation for the new campaign. Training Camp reports can have a tangible effect on player value and, subsequently, the dynasty market as a whole. Today, we will analyze several recurring trends we see during the height of hype season and the impact those trends have in your Dynasty Leagues.
A TALE AS OLD AS TIME
You do not need to peer deep into the history books to find examples of training camp storylines drastically changing the outlook on market values. It was just last season that we witnessed the defamation of generational rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
Chase’s ADP rose as high as WR5 following the NFL Draft. His startup draft cost would fall as low as WR15 during the offseason media frenzy (ADP via @SleeperHQ). Managers that capitalized on an egregious discount are praising the overreaction gods for Chase’s decline in market value. It is truly ludicrous to review in hindsight that people were fading a once-in-a-lifetime prospect such as Chase for something as preposterous as stripes on a football. Keep in mind that this trend is nothing new. The year prior, Chase’s former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson fell victim to similar scrutiny from the media with reports of the young wideout being behind Bisi Johnson despite being selected in the first round.
A quick look at Chase and Jefferson’s consensus dynasty value as the WR1 and WR2, respectively, makes those reports and the causality of market decline appear ridiculous. On the opposite side of the propaganda spectrum, we saw insatiable reports boost Panthers rookie wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. in the preseason of 2021. Marshall was an early second-round pick in rookie drafts last season, with a rookie ADP of 2.04 and WR57 overall. During training camp and preseason Marshall was heralded as the next great Panthers receiver, ballooning his market value to the peak of WR30 overall. The second-year wideout is now the consensus WR84 off the board in startup drafts after a historically disastrous rookie season. These recent examples of rising and declining value should stand as a warning for all managers buying too deeply into training camp storylines. Please, stay steadfast in your process and player evaluations. These reports are often nothing more than media filler.
ROOKIE VALUE REGRESSION
As we’ve highlighted above, Rookies are the most susceptible assets to market changes throughout training camp as their profiles and NFL projections are based on pure assumption rather than on-field production. Regression is not proprietary to decline; it simply means a return to the norm. This time of the offseason marks the period where several rookie values level out from their fever-pitch rankings after the NFL Draft. Subsequently, late-round rookie picks can rise in value as unknown youngsters shine in practice. A solid example of this overlooked regression of values is two concurring storylines circulating four separate rookie wideouts.
First, let’s look at a pair of rookies competing for starting snaps in the AFC South with Titans’ first-round draft pick Treylon Burks (DFF Draft Profile) and fifth-round 2022 selection Kyle Philips (DFF Draft Profile).
Post Draft ADP
Treylon Burks = WR16
Kyle Philips = WR170
Training Camp ADP
Treylon Burks = WR22
Kyle Philips = WR140
Philips is receiving a litany of hype for his crisp route running and ability to separate despite his smaller frame. He has a good shot at returning value above his current ADP with a decent season in 2022.
Burks has been criticized early in camp for lack of conditioning and discipline. Despite the smoke and mirror reports, there should be no question as to who the future alpha of the Titans receiving team is. Burks remains one of the top prospects of the 2022 class and will surely have a chance to show it in his rookie season. A similar story can be found in the midwest as Christian Watson (DFF Draft Profile Coverage) and Romeo Doubs (DFF Draft Profile) attempt to impress the Packers’ coaching staff. However, this particular shift comes with distinct nuances.
Post Draft ADP
Christian Watson = WR37
Romeo Doubs = WR140
Training Camp ADP
Christian Watson = WR46
Romeo Doubs = WR75
Watson is on the Physically Unable to Perform list to begin training camp as the Packers’ second-round pick in 2022 deals with undisclosed injuries. Meanwhile, in his stead, Doubs is dominating the early portion of the team’s mandatory drills, receiving rare praise from the unflappable Aaron Rodgers.
Both players were considered developmental projects on a team in desperate need of wide receiver depth following the departure of Davante Adams and his 31.6% target share. It appears as if Doubs is far ahead in the learning phase as he excels in his practice reps while Watson watches on the sidelines.
For a deeper dive on rookie market evaluations, check out the recent publications in the Dynasty Market Sweep Series (Rookie QB Market Report, Rookie TE Market Report, Rookie RB Market Report, Rookie WR Market Report)
A BUYER’S MARKET
Proven producers are no strangers to offseason shifts in their perceived value as roster roles fluctuate and teams hash out their best formations. Similar rises and declines in market position and ADP can happen all around the league amidst training camp hype.
These discrepancies in dynasty value can open up excellent trade windows for contenders looking to add undervalued veteran producers. Managers with rebuilding rosters can often receive a fair return on said veterans.
For a deeper dive into veteran market evaluations, check out the recent publications in the Dynasty Market Sweep Series (Veteran WR Market Report, Veteran WR Market Report Part 2, Veteran TE Market Report, Veteran RB Market Report, Veteran RB Market Report Part 2, Veteran QB Market Report)
POSITION BATTLES
One positive outcome of the increased media surrounding NFL training camp is a clearer understanding of player roles in the upcoming season. As we mentioned, players with no history of sustained production, despite multiple years in the NFL, are unlikely to make a serious impact (see Justin Jefferson vs Bisi Johnson). However, managers should take note of position battles between young budding players, as well as rookies competing against established veterans.
The level of impact these battles have on your dynasty roster can be found in no better example than the current competition between the Jets’ second-year receiver Elijah Moore and the team’s top-10 2022 NFL Draft pick Garrett Wilson (DFF Draft Profile).
As far as the Jets’ reporters are concerned, Moore has established himself as the clearcut leader in the wide receiver pecking order.
Wilson will need to earn his repetitions and role within the offense despite being backed by his first-round draft capital. There is good reason for the Jets to slow roll Wilson’s development. Moore was utterly dominant once he got consistent playing time in 2021. His rookie breakout came after a performance that saw the young star finish as the WR1 overall (27.4 PTS) in Week 9 as he torched the Colts’ formidable defense for seven receptions, 84 yards, and two touchdowns. Moore would finish as a top-10 fantasy WR three times from Week 9 through Week 13 before missing the next four contests with injury. An increased role coincides with a massive spike in value for the underrated 22-year-old. Wilson’s dynasty value and ADP has rightfully coincided with Moore’s rise and prominent role. The rookie wideout has recently been surpassed by his teammate, with the duo’s consensus ranking settling in at WR19 (Moore) and WR22 (Wilson), respectively.
Managers that had a high prospect grade on Wilson should hold steady. The news of Moore’s talent should not come as a surprise. However, this storyline does give managers a prime example of how unsuspecting players can vault themselves to the top of the depth charts and your dynasty market.
PLAYER CONFIRMATION BIAS
Too often, managers and analysts use baseless training camp reports to prop up the value of lower assets. The market is hot for buying right now. However, throwing away future value for the hottest rising acquisition of menial value is a risk that rarely pays off.
ROSTER CUTS
As training camp and preseason end, NFL teams will be forced to trim their rosters down to 53 players. This mandatory roster cut will leave some of your favorite late-round sleepers and training camp heroes without a roster to play on in 2022. These coin flip-level assets should be invested cautiously and acquired by giving up minimal value.
DFF Draft Profiles Provided By:
Paul Patterson, Author at Dynasty Football Factory (@fantasyfreezer)
Chris Museezer, Author at Dynasty Football Factory (@force_fantasy)
Isaac Dirrim, Author at Dynasty Football Factory (@dirrim23)
Jared Hines, Author at Dynasty Football Factory (@Ship_Chaser)
SIGNOFF
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
Check out my other works as an Author at Dynasty Football Factory.
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