Last week, the Arizona Cardinals signed James Conner to a one-year deal worth $1.75M fully guaranteed. After playing his first four seasons in the league with Pittsburgh, he will now join a backfield that includes: Chase Edmonds, Jonathan Ward, and Eno Benjamin. Below, I will be digging deeper into Conner’s and Edmonds’ fantasy outlooks for the 2021 season. I will also explain why the Cardinals should look into drafting a running back in this year’s draft.
James Conner
In his first four seasons in the league, Conner has shown glimpses as to why Mike Tomlin considered him a “bell cow” in his team’s offense at one point. We’ve also seen the four-year-pro struggle mightily at times. Just three seasons ago, Conner broke out and rushed for 913 yards on 215 carries (4.5 YPC) in 13 games. He also rushed for 12 touchdowns, caught 55 passes, produced 497 receiving yards, and caught a touchdown as well. The next season, he only played in 10 games. He failed to rush for 500 yards (464), produced a career-low in yards per carry (4.0), caught 21 fewer passes (34), and found the endzone just seven times. In what many thought would be a bounce-back season, Conner struggled once again in 2020. He produced 721 rushing yards, a 4.3 yards per carry average, 34 receptions, 215 receiving yards, and just six total touchdowns. If you were to ask anyone who owned Conner in fantasy the last few years, they would more than likely express anger and regret towards drafting him.
Leaving Pittsburgh is probably the right move for both Conner and the Steelers. He should battle Edmonds for the starting running back job, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he served as the team’s back-up. When you are the starting running back on a team that finished last in the league in rushing (1,351 yards), you’re not likely to start the next season with a sure starting spot. The veteran back comes in on a one-year deal, so this is a low-risk/ high-reward scenario for both the Cardinals and Conner. If he plays well, the Cardinals are happy, and Conner more than likely sees a larger contract the following season. If he plays poorly, Arizona lets him walk, and Conner gets to choose his next destination once again. He’s only 25 years old, so he should have a lot left in the tank. He brings physicality to an Arizona offense that let Kenyan Drake walk in free agency. Conner also catches the ball very well out of the backfield. In his four seasons, he has caught 124 passes with an 81 percent catch-percentage rate. The multi-skill back should have no issue carving out a huge role in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.
Conner’s 2021 Prediction
Rushing: 152 carries, 654 yards, five touchdowns
Receiving: 31 receptions, 251 yards, two touchdowns
Fantasy Points: 132.5 standard points, 163.5 PPR points
Chase Edmonds
Edmonds really came onto the scene last season playing next to Kenyan Drake. He played in all 16 games with two starts to fill in when Drake was injured. He finished with career bests in carries (97), rushing yards (448), receptions (53), and receiving touchdowns (4). He also finished 30th amongst all running backs in standard fantasy points (115) and 25th in PPR points (168) last season. Drake signing with Las Vegas opened the doors for Edmonds to have a shot at the starting running back position for Arizona. The Conner signing ensures that Edmonds will have competition entering the new season.
Considering the fact that Conner has struggled the past couple of years, it might be Edmonds’ job to lose. Expect the two to battle for the starting spot, but considering Edmonds has played in Kingsbury’s offense the past two seasons, he should have the edge. Conner has a bigger build (6’1” 233 lbs) than Edmonds (5’9” 210 lbs), so he should serve more as the short-yardage/goal-line rusher. Edmonds is quicker and shows more shiftiness/acceleration, so he should serve as the third-down/gadget back, who deserves plenty of carries. Either way, don’t expect either back to perform at an RB1/RB2 fantasy level on a consistent basis.
Edmonds’ 2021 Prediction
Rushing: 141 carries, 635 yards, four touchdowns
Receiving: 58 receptions, 481 yards, three touchdowns
Fantasy Points: 153.6 standard points, 211.6 PPR points
Who the Cardinals Should Draft
Arizona has a lot of firepower on offense. Kyler Murray is a dynamic, young quarterback. DeAndre Hopkins is one of the best wide receivers in the league. Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, and Larry Fitzgerald also contribute on a consistent basis in the receiving game. What Arizona needs is a running back for the future. As mentioned before, Conner is signed to a one-year deal. Edmonds is also entering free agency after this season. What if both running backs underperform? The Cardinals will need to either address the situation next season or add another running back to fight for the starting spot in 2022. Why not address the situation now?
Even though this year’s draft is considered a “quarterback draft,” there are still plenty of talented backs who are worthy of being drafted in the first two rounds. Yes, the Cardinals should address their struggles on the defensive side of the ball in the first round (I think they should sign either Jaycee Horn or Greg Newsome II). BUT they have the 17th pick in the second round. This is when they should draft a positional player on offense. Sure, they need a tight end, but you could find a great tight end on day three. This is the perfect time to draft your running back of the future. Fun fact, Thurman Thomas of the Buffalo Bills was drafted in the second round. Surely, Najee Harris and Travis Etienne will be off the board by this point. Wouldn’t this be a perfect spot to draft Kenneth Gainwell?
Kenneth Gainwell
Gainwell played his collegiate career at Memphis University. Last season, he carried the ball 231 times for 1,459 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also caught 51 passes for 610 yards and three touchdowns. He stands at 5’11” 191lbs, and he ran an unofficial 4.42 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. Drafting him to learn behind Conner and Edmonds would create a bright future for the talented back. Arizona should also consider Javonte Williams, Trey Sermon, and Khalil Herbert with their second-round pick.
Arizona’s Running Back Room
Drafting a running back would be ideal in the 2021 draft, but if the Cardinals don’t select a running back, expect either Jonathan Ward or Eno Benjamin to have a minimal role in Kingsbury’s offense. No matter what, both Conner and Edmonds will see plenty of playing time, and the running back position will be heavily involved in Arizona’s offense.
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