In this series, I am diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last 2-3 seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. As well as team-focused stuff like a pass to rush play ratio (this is just team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass to rush touchdown ratio, and total plays. I then use these past trends and try to predict what will be in store for 2021. Here are my projections for the Kansas City Chiefs’ fantasy-relevant players.
Keep in mind, these stats are for the new 17 game season and not the old 16 game season. In 2019 the Chiefs had a 1.54 pass to rush rate along with a 1.88 pass to rush TD rate. In 2020 their numbers were 1.57 and a whopping 3.08, compare these to the league averages of 1.3 and 1.8, now we have good targets for 2021. In 2021 I am keeping the Chiefs’ play rate just about where they have been and gave them a 1.55 pass to rush ratio. Now TDs has a lot of wiggle room but I decided on a 2.33 rate. 2020 was way over normal and their average over the last two years is 2.5, I wanted to stay close to this but also start approaching the league average. I settled on a 2.19 ratio which gives them 35 pass TDs and 16 rush TDs.
Mahomes’ efficiency numbers have been very consistent so I left them where they have been historically. I also kept his volume about the same, it is just a little bit higher. Mahomes is Mahomes, we know what we can expect at this point. Typically I don’t draft elite QBs, but I drafted him in one of my best ball leagues because he fell to the 4.04 and I felt he was a good value at that point. I had already drafted two RBs and one WR, so I went ahead and grabbed my QB1.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a player that was hyped to Mars in the last off-season. I had been calling him a post-hype buy candidate all off-season so I was excited to see what my projections would have in store for him. In 2020 CEH had 45% of the team’s carries and that was with him missing three full games. So, in 2021 I have him projected for 50% of the team’s carries. I also gave him a 50% share of the rush TDs and a 10% target share. All of these comes together to make a 1,300 yard and 13 total TD season. One of CEH’s biggest issues last season was finding the endzone, I have him correcting this in a big way and seeing an elite TD floor. He is the main RB in the league’s most consistent offense. He should see a lot of TD opportunities this season.
Now with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, we see what we want to and expect. Both over 1,200 yards and both at nine-plus TDs. One thing I didn’t realize before doing this was that Tyreek has consistently outperformed Kelce in the TD department. I expect this to continue and have Tyreek repeating his awesome 2020 year. They are both high-value assets and should both be gone before the third round of every draft.
That is all I have for you here today. I hope you enjoyed it and lookout for the next installment when I take on the Buffalo Bills when I show you what to expect after a 2020 blow-up from that offense.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content, along with rankings for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
